Brent crude is near $90 a barrel as tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz collapse and the US-Iran interim deal expires. Here’s what it means for global energy costs.

Oil prices are climbing again as one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints grinds nearly to a halt. Per IranWire, Brent crude climbed to $89.40 a barrel in Monday, August 17 trading, driven by fading hopes for renewed US-Iran talks and a sharp drop in Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic. Shipping analytics firm Kpler data cited in the same report shows only five cargo vessels transited the strait on one Saturday, with zero on Sunday — down from 31 the previous weekend.

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude climbed to $89.40 a barrel on August 17 as tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to near zero.
• Only five cargo vessels crossed the strait on one recent Saturday, and zero on Sunday, versus 31 the previous weekend.
• The interim US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which set a 60-day negotiating window, has expired without a permanent agreement.
• The EIA does not expect Middle East oil production to return to near pre-conflict levels until early 2027.
• Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, are increasingly rerouting crude through alternative loading points to bypass the strait.

The immediate trigger is the expiration of the interim framework that had briefly stabilized the situation. Per TradingEconomics, crude rose above $85 a barrel as President Trump said Washington was not currently holding or planning talks with Tehran, while confirming a naval blockade remains in place — even as he claimed the strait was open and mines cleared. The same report notes a vessel was attacked while leaving the strait, suffering engine-room damage and a crew casualty, and that the memorandum of understanding signed in June — meant to give both sides 60 days to negotiate a longer-term deal — officially expired without a follow-on agreement.

The scale of the disruption is historic. Per Al Jazeera, shipping through the strait — a conduit for about one-fifth of global oil supply before the war — has effectively collapsed since the conflict began in late February, prompting the largest energy disruption in recorded history; between eight and 15 vessels crossed on August 4-6, versus roughly 130 transits before the conflict, according to ship-tracker MarineTraffic.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has tied any reopening to conditions Washington hasn’t met, including sanctions relief and war reparations, per the same Al Jazeera report. A separate CNBC report details a restrictive draft plan Iranian state media published for strait traffic — banning US and Israeli vessels outright and penalizing others at 20% of cargo value — even as Iran and Oman continued separately negotiating a managed-transit arrangement.

The price path has been genuinely volatile rather than a one-way spike. Per a CNBC analysis, Brent fell more than 7% in one week following signals of an imminent deal that then failed to materialize, before rebounding as attacks resumed. CNBC’s most recent update notes both major contracts gained more than 5% in the most recent week following attacks on ADNOC-operated tankers in the strait and a Saudi Aramco refinery, with a Phillip Nova analyst noting prices “have now rebounded almost completely from the lows seen in early August” as hopes for a lasting resolution fade.

Gulf producers are adapting rather than absorbing the disruption passively. The same Al Jazeera reporting notes Saudi Arabia has begun offering crude sourced from outside the chokepoint, following a pattern the UAE established earlier, while the EIA’s latest outlook — cited by Yahoo Finance — does not expect Middle East oil production to return to near pre-conflict levels until early 2027, forecasting Brent to average $79 a barrel for 2026, up sharply from a pre-conflict $58 forecast.

Why It Matters

Every day the strait remains constrained adds cost to energy-importing economies across the nine markets this operation covers, most directly Pakistan, Singapore and the UK, all of which import the bulk of their energy. It also directly explains part of the Bank of England’s rate-hold calculus detailed in Article 3.

Data and Evidence

• Brent crude: $89.40/barrel (Aug 17); recent trading above $85-90 range
• Strait transits: as low as 0 vessels on some days, versus ~130/day pre-conflict
• Pre-war share of global oil flows through Hormuz: approximately one-fifth
• EIA 2026 Brent forecast: $79/barrel average, up from a pre-conflict $58 estimate

Global Impact

Beyond direct energy-import costs, prolonged Hormuz disruption raises shipping insurance premiums globally and adds to inflation risk for every economy in this nine-market portfolio — a throughline connecting this story to the UK rate story, Pakistan’s inflation outlook, and global aviation fuel costs (Article 12).

What Happens Next

Watch for whether Iran and Oman finalize a managed-transit arrangement, and whether Washington re-engages given Trump’s stated reluctance to extend the interim deal. The EIA’s early-2027 normalization timeline is the baseline scenario barring a breakthrough.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did oil prices rise again in August?

Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed toward zero as the US-Iran interim deal expired without a follow-on agreement.

Is the Strait of Hormuz fully closed?

Not officially, but transit volumes have fallen to a small fraction of pre-conflict levels on many days.

When might the situation normalize?

The EIA doesn’t expect near-pre-conflict production levels until early 2027.

Are alternative routes available?

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have begun rerouting some crude through non-strait loading points. How much oil normally flows through Hormuz?

About one-fifth of global oil supply before the conflict began.

Russia’s oil export machine is showing fresh strain, as Ukrainian strikes on critical loading infrastructure and a tightening sanctions net combine to push key export volumes to record lows — even as elevated global oil prices from the separate Iran conflict have offered Moscow a partial, and increasingly fragile, offset.

Loadings Collapse at Key Ports

The clearest sign of the pressure is at Tuapse, a Black Sea port that has been under sustained drone attack since May and loaded almost no oil products for a second consecutive month in July, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air’s monthly tracking of Russian fossil fuel exports. Loadings at the port fell a further 23% in July to just 4.7 million tonnes — their lowest level on record and less than half the 9.6 million tonnes loaded in July of the previous year.

The disruption intensified following Ukraine’s July 19 drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s marine terminal near Novorossiysk, after which only one oil shipment was loaded between July 22 and 26, with total monthly loadings at the port dropping 23% month-on-month. With refinery throughput still depressed and domestic demand taking priority — jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline all remain under an export ban — the continued slide points to a further fall in oil product revenues in August.

Urals Crude Trades Well Above the Price Cap

Prices tell a more nuanced story. The average price of Russia’s benchmark Urals-grade crude fell 3% month-on-month to $60.22 per barrel in July, still significantly higher than the EU and UK price cap of $44.1 per barrel that took effect in February. The gap between the market price Russia is actually realising and the Western-imposed cap illustrates how the broader oil-market disruption from the separate Iran conflict has, paradoxically, given Moscow more room above the sanctions ceiling than it has enjoyed for much of the past two years.

That relief has been substantial in dollar terms. Oil export earnings rose from an average of $10.4 billion per month in January-February to $19.1 billion in March, $21.5 billion in April, and $20.8 billion in May, according to a mid-year assessment by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, as the Iran war’s disruption to global energy flows lifted prices broadly and, by extension, Russian revenue even as sanctions architecture remained largely unchanged.

Sanctions Circumvention Under Scrutiny

Enforcement efforts continue to target the shadow fleet and its supporting ecosystem. The Georgian port of Kulevi — whose refinery has run solely on Russian crude and has not received a single shipment of non-Russian crude since opening operations in October 2025 — has said it will stop accepting Russian oil as of August or September, after a new sanctions package introduced a transaction ban on the refinery for processing and trading Russian crude, effective after a six-month wind-down period. CREA’s analysis suggests Kulevi and the nearby port of Batumi have been exporting refined products suspected of containing Russian-origin molecules to jurisdictions that maintain sanctions on Moscow.

Washington Escalates With a New Sanctions Bill

The pressure from Washington has grown more concrete as well. The US Senate passed legislation dubbed the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026,” which sets up to 100% tariffs on major nations importing Russian oil and gas. The bill’s supporters argue it will have a ripple effect across Russia’s economy by deterring countries from trading with Moscow, given that Russia’s fossil fuel exports earn the country roughly 734 million euros a day and remain the central pillar of its war financing.

Russia’s embassy in Washington has condemned the legislation, pointing to the knock-on energy constraints already caused by the US-Israel war on Iran and warning that further sanctioning of Russia’s trading partners risks compounding an “impending energy crisis” ahead of US midterm elections.

The Bigger Fiscal Picture

Even with the Iran-war windfall, Russia’s broader economic trajectory remains under pressure. Growth is projected at just 0.4% for 2026, worse than the 1% recorded in 2025, and authorities have moved to hike taxes — including raising VAT from 20% to 22% — to shore up a budget strained by continued military spending. Analysts at KSE Institute frame the coming months as a fork in the road: a prolonged global oil crisis would continue supporting Russian export and budget revenues without resolving the domestic fuel crisis, while a faster return of the oil market to surplus would expose Russia more fully to lower revenues and mounting fiscal pressure.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian drone strikes on Novorossiysk and Tuapse have pushed Russian oil product loadings to record lows in July.
• Urals crude averaged $60.22 a barrel in July, still well above the $44.1 Western price cap, thanks to the separate Iran-war oil-price shock.
• Russian oil export earnings roughly doubled from January-February levels through the spring, even as sanctions enforcement tightened elsewhere.
• The US Senate passed a bill threatening up to 100% tariffs on countries importing Russian oil and gas.
• Russia’s own 2026 growth forecast stands at just 0.4%, with authorities raising VAT to shore up war-strained public finances.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why have Russian oil exports fallen at key ports? Ukrainian drone strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk and on the port of Tuapse have severely disrupted loadings, pushing volumes to record lows in July 2026.

Why is Russia’s Urals crude trading above the Western price cap? The Iran war’s disruption to global oil markets has lifted prices broadly, allowing Russia to sell Urals crude at $60.22 a barrel — well above the $44.1 EU/UK price cap — despite ongoing sanctions.

What new US legislation targets Russian oil buyers? The US Senate passed the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026,” which authorizes tariffs of up to 100% on countries that import Russian oil and gas.

Fresh PPI data and $4-a-gallon gas are colliding. See what the latest inflation print means for prices, the Fed, and your wallet across America.Fill up your tank this week and you already felt it: gas is back above $4 a gallon nationally, roughly a dollar more than this time last year.

Problem: wholesale prices were supposed to be cooling. Agitate: instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ newest PPI report — released just yesterday, August 13 — landed at a hotter-than-expected 4.7% annual pace, even as the headline monthly number came in flat. Solution: understanding what’s actually driving the number, and what it means for the months ahead, is the difference between reacting to headlines and actually protecting your budget. This is trending right now because the PPI print dropped one day after gas prices ticked back up to $4.07 a gallon, and the two data points are more connected than most coverage lets on.

What the Latest PPI Report Actually Says

The PPI report for July showed final demand producer prices unchanged month-over-month, undershooting the 0.2% consensus forecast — but still up 4.7% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s comfort zone.

• Goods fell 0.7%, dragged down largely by energy-linked categories
• Services rose 0.2%, with a notable jump in fuel and lubricant retail margins
• Construction prices jumped 2.2%, a sign input costs for housing and infrastructure remain sticky

Why it matters: PPI measures what producers charge, not what consumers pay — but it’s a leading indicator. When wholesale costs rise, businesses eventually pass them on. A 4.7% annual PPI print, even with a flat monthly read, tells you the pipeline of future price pressure hasn’t cleared.

Fuel Costs: The Other Half of the Story

While goods prices cooled on paper, fuel tells a different story at the pump:

• The national average sits at $4.07–$4.08 per gallon as of mid-August, up roughly 7.5% in a single month
• California drivers are paying north of $5.60 per gallon
• Crude oil has been trading in the $70–$80 per barrel range, kept elevated by lingering uncertainty around Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes

This matters beyond the gas station. Fuel costs bleed into trucking, airfare, groceries, and eventually the next PPI print — creating a feedback loop that’s easy to underestimate.

How This Is Shaking Up America

America’s household budgets are being squeezed from two directions simultaneously: elevated financing costs and volatile energy prices layered on top of a labor market the Fed still considers “not soft enough” to justify aggressive rate cuts.

• Consumers are prioritizing essentials over discretionary spending
• Small businesses reliant on transport and logistics are absorbing thinner margins
• The Fed’s September decision (meeting lands September 16) will weigh this PPI print alongside the upcoming jobs and PCE data

Actionable Takeaway

If you’re budgeting month-to-month: expect grocery and transport-adjacent costs to stay elevated through Q4, even if headline inflation cools. If you’re an investor: energy-sensitive and logistics-heavy sectors deserve extra scrutiny until crude oil volatility settles. The PPI report didn’t spike — but it didn’t retreat either, and that “stuck” reading is arguably more consequential for America’s economy than a dramatic one-time jump would have been.