Russia’s Black Sea Oil Exports Fall for a Fifth Straight Week

Russian crude loadings at Novorossiysk hit zero as Ukrainian drone strikes intensify. Here’s what the export collapse means for Urals pricing and global supply.

Russia’s seaborne oil export machine is sputtering under sustained Ukrainian pressure. Per Bloomberg, shipments have fallen for a fifth week, with no crude loading at all from the key Novorossiysk terminal in the seven days to August 16 — a decline larger than any comparable stretch since the war began.

Key Takeaways

• Russian oil shipments have fallen for five straight weeks, with no crude loaded at the key Novorossiysk terminal in the seven days to August 16.
• Ukraine struck Novorossiysk’s naval base and infrastructure on August 11-12, damaging four warships and hitting the tunnel leading to the Sheskharis terminal.
• The Sheskharis terminal — Russia’s main Black Sea export point, handling around 700,000 barrels a day — has suspended loadings repeatedly since.
• Russian oil refining fell in July to its lowest level since May 2002, roughly a third below seasonal norms.
• Russia earned €193 billion from energy sales over the past year, of which €14.5 billion came from the EU.

The proximate cause was a major overnight strike. Per the Kyiv Independent, Ukraine’s large-scale drone attack on Novorossiysk overnight on August 12 damaged the Sheskharis terminal — Russia’s main Black Sea crude facility, handling around 700,000 barrels a day — and follow-on drone threats on August 14 forced a full suspension of loadings, with a scheduled tanker departing without cargo. President Zelensky said the strikes hit two frigates, a landing ship, a corvette and other naval vessels, along with grain terminals and infrastructure supporting Russia’s war financing, per EA WorldView’s reporting.

The human and commercial toll has been significant on both fronts. The Moscow Times reported at least three people were killed in the attack, including a child, and that two major grain terminals were knocked offline — Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, and its grain lobby has separately warned that continued strikes could disrupt exports and push up global food prices.

The disruption follows a period of unusually high export volumes as Russia pushed to keep revenue flowing despite the attacks. Per Baird Maritime, Novorossiysk loadings reached nearly 1 million barrels a day in July, up from about 800,000 in June — but security risk in the Black Sea has made vessels increasingly hard to secure, with one trader involved in Russian oil sales telling Reuters they “have to change vessels daily as most shipowners refuse to visit Russia’s Black Sea ports.”

The strain extends beyond export terminals into refining capacity itself. Per The Moscow Times’ Bloomberg-sourced reporting, Russian refineries processed an estimated 3.6 million barrels of crude a day in July — the lowest since May 2002, and roughly a third below the 5.3-5.6 million barrel seasonal norm for 2020-2025. Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis noted Russia retains some capacity to redirect crude to Baltic terminals, but limited pipeline, storage and tanker capacity constrain how much it can compensate.

The financial stakes are considerable. The same Moscow Times reporting notes Russia earned €193 billion from energy sales over the past year, of which €14.5 billion came from the European Union — underscoring how much revenue is riding on export infrastructure that is now under sustained attack.

Why It Matters

A sustained reduction in Russian export volumes tightens global crude supply at the same time the Strait of Hormuz disruption (Article 5) is constraining Middle East flows — a dual supply shock with outsized implications for energy-importing economies across this operation’s nine markets.

Data and Evidence

• Novorossiysk crude loadings: 0 for the week to August 16, following a fifth consecutive weekly decline
• Sheskharis terminal capacity: ~700,000 barrels/day
• July Novorossiysk loadings before the disruption: ~1 million barrels/day
• Russian refining, July 2026: 3.6 million barrels/day, lowest since May 2002
• Russia’s energy revenue, trailing year: €193 billion (€14.5 billion from the EU)

Global Impact

Combined with Hormuz disruptions, reduced Russian seaborne exports add to a global crude-supply tightening that ripples into every energy-importing market this operation covers, and into shipping-insurance costs for tankers willing to operate in either conflict zone.

What Happens Next

Watch whether Russia can redirect meaningful volumes to Baltic terminals, and whether Ukraine sustains its Black Sea strike tempo despite reported US pressure (Vice President Vance reportedly asked Zelensky to pause strikes in late July) to avoid further destabilizing oil markets.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Russian oil exports drop to zero at Novorossiysk?

Repeated Ukrainian drone strikes damaged the Sheskharis terminal and forced repeated suspensions of loading operations.

How much of Russia’s oil exports does Novorossiysk handle?

Around 700,000 barrels a day at capacity, roughly 2% of global oil supply.

Is Russian refining also affected?

Yes — refining hit a 24-year low in July, about a third below seasonal norms.

Can Russia reroute exports elsewhere?

Partially, via Baltic terminals, but pipeline, storage and tanker capacity limit how much can be redirected.

How much revenue does Russia get from energy exports?

Roughly €193 billion over the trailing year, including €14.5 billion from EU buyers.