GasBuddy forecast sub-$3 gas for 2026. The national average is $4.33. Inside the forecast that broke, and what drivers should expect through Q4.

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• The US national average for regular gasoline was $4.329 per gallon on 15 September 2026 — up from $4.07 a week earlier, $3.85 a month earlier and $3.14 a year earlier.
• GasBuddy’s annual outlook, published before the Middle East conflict, projected a 2026 national average of $2.97 — the first sub-$3 year since the pandemic — and a December average of $2.83.
• The gap between forecast and reality is roughly $1.35 a gallon, and the cause is entirely geopolitical.
• Houthi attacks shut a crucial Saudi crude pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026; WTI has traded near $102–103 and Brent near $107.
• AAA reports prices inching toward the year’s record high of $4.56, set on 21 May 2026.

1. Introduction & Immediate Context

In late 2025, GasBuddy published one of the more confident fuel forecasts in recent memory. The national average would fall to $2.97 in 2026, the first sub-$3 year since the pandemic and roughly 13 cents below the 2025 average, marking a fourth straight year of decline. Prices would peak in spring in the low $3.20 range as refiners switched to summer blends, then ease to an average of $2.83 in December. Diesel would average $3.55, down from $3.62. US drivers would spend $11 billion less on gasoline than in 2025, with the average household paying about $2,083 for the year.

Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, summarised it at the time: it was not a return to ultra-cheap fuel, but for the first time in a long while the wind was clearly behind drivers’ backs.

Nine months later, the national average is $4.329 per gallon, per AAA data compiled on 15 September 2026. Understanding why that forecast failed is more useful to commuters and logistics managers than any point prediction about the fourth quarter.

2. Core Market Analysis

2.1 Forecast versus outcome

2.2 What actually moved

Crude is the largest single cost in a gallon of gasoline, so pump prices generally track WTI and Brent with a one-to-two week lag. WTI has been trading near $103.30 and Brent near $107.56, per market data compiled alongside AAA averages.

The proximate trigger was infrastructure, not demand. Attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels shut down a crucial crude pipeline in Saudi Arabia that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, according to Trading Economics market reporting. Saudi Arabia has indicated it could restore around half of the damaged East-West pipeline’s capacity within days and resume full operations within six weeks, while offering additional cargoes through ship-to-ship transfers near Oman.

US gasoline futures have held above $3.45 a gallon, close to their highest level in eight weeks. Gasoline itself fell to $3.46 on 18 September, down 1.22% on the day, but is up 6.43% over the past month and up 76.03% compared with the same time last year.

2.3 The domestic supply picture is not the problem

This is the part most local coverage gets backwards. EIA data showed US gasoline inventories unexpectedly rising for a second consecutive week, increasing by 800,000 barrels in the week ending 11 September, as refineries continued operating at elevated capacity — 96.8%, slightly lower than prior weeks — while delaying non-essential work. Demand rose by 300,000 barrels per day even as pump prices climbed.

Inventories building while prices rise is the signature of a crude-cost-driven move rather than a domestic shortage. The forward risk is maintenance: approaching seasonal fall refinery work remains a threat to refined-product supplies, and refiners have been deferring non-essential work to keep runs high. Deferred maintenance is borrowed capacity, and it gets repaid in October and November.

Earlier in the month, AAA reported that the Labor Day weekend set a record at the pump, with the national average at $4.14 — the first time it has exceeded $4 on Labor Day, against a previous record of $3.82 set in 2012. Gasoline demand had decreased from 9.04 to 8.92 million barrels per day, and crude inventories at 424.5 million barrels sat 1% above the five-year average. Prices rose anyway.

3. Structural Drivers and Competitor Gaps

Why state-level dispersion is widening. California’s regular gasoline reached $6.001 per gallon against Indiana at $3.586 — a spread of nearly $2.42. The drivers are the nation’s highest state gas taxes, a unique cleaner-burning CARB fuel blend that few refineries produce, and limited pipeline supply that isolates the state’s market. The top ten most expensive markets as reported by AAA were California ($6.08), Washington ($5.57), Hawaii ($5.48), Nevada ($5.19), Oregon ($5.11), Alaska ($5.07), Idaho ($4.85), Utah ($4.81), Illinois ($4.78) and Michigan ($4.75).

Crude shocks amplify dispersion rather than distributing evenly. Markets with constrained refining and unique blend requirements have the least ability to substitute supply, so the same $10 crude move produces a larger pump-price move in an isolated market than in a well-supplied one. Price-comparison apps deliver the most savings precisely in these markets, because station-level variance rises alongside regional variance.

What a forecast can and cannot do. GasBuddy’s outlook explicitly listed seasonal demand, refinery maintenance, hurricane season and geopolitical tensions as sources of fluctuation. The failure was not the analysis of the fundamentals — easing global economic pressure and added refining capacity were real — but that a supply-route disruption of this scale sits outside any statistical distribution built on normal conditions. Consumers reading annual fuel forecasts should treat them as conditional on geopolitical stability, not as point estimates.

The EV comparison held steady. The national average per kilowatt hour at a public EV charging station stayed at 42 cents through the period, unchanged week over week. When liquid fuel moves 76% year-on-year and electricity does not, the relative operating-cost calculation for fleet operators shifts materially — a second-order effect that will show up in 2027 procurement decisions.

4. Key Implications for Stakeholders

Daily commuters. The practical saving available from station-level price comparison rises with regional dispersion, and dispersion is currently near its widest. In high-variance markets the difference between the cheapest and most expensive station on a routine route can exceed 25 cents a gallon.

Logistics managers. Diesel was forecast at $3.55 for 2026 on pre-conflict assumptions. Any fuel-surcharge schedule or freight contract built on that number needs revisiting. The relevant forward risk through Q4 is deferred refinery maintenance, not crude.

Retail traders. Inventories rising while prices rise is a clean signal that the move is imported from crude rather than generated domestically. Watch Saudi East-West pipeline restoration progress — a six-week full-restoration timeline, if met, is the most likely source of relief.

Household budgeters. At $4.33 against a $3.14 average a year ago, the annual household fuel bill is running far above the roughly $2,083 projected. Budgets set in January on the sub-$3 forecast are materially understated.

5. Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What is the national average gas price right now?

The US average for regular gasoline was $4.329 per gallon on 15 September 2026, up from $4.07 a week earlier and $3.14 a year earlier, according to AAA data.

Q2: Why did GasBuddy’s 2026 forecast miss?

The forecast of $2.97 per gallon was built on easing global economic pressure and expanded refining capacity, before Middle East conflict and attacks on a key Saudi pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude above $100 a barrel.

Q3: Why is California gas so much more expensive?

California combines the nation’s highest state gas taxes, a unique CARB cleaner-burning blend that few refineries produce, and limited pipeline access that isolates its market — currently producing a regular price near $6.00 against Indiana’s $3.59.

Q4: Will gas prices fall in late 2026?

That depends primarily on Saudi pipeline restoration, which the kingdom indicated could reach full capacity within six weeks. The countervailing risk is deferred seasonal refinery maintenance, which refiners have been postponing to keep runs near 97%.

DoorDash posted $4.45B Q2 revenue on 970M orders, but net income fell 30%. Inside Dasher costs, the new fee model and the autonomy bet.

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

• Q2 2026 results: revenue up 36% year-on-year to $4.45 billion, Marketplace GOV up 36% to $33.1 billion, total orders up 27% to 970 million.
• Excluding the Deliveroo acquisition, the underlying growth rates are materially lower: orders up 17%, GOV up 23%, revenue up 24%.
• Adjusted EBITDA was $914 million, up 40% year-on-year, but GAAP net income fell 30% to $200 million on higher legal and regulatory expenses.
• Management guided take rate to stay flattish in Q3 and decline in Q4 due to seasonal Dasher cost increases, insurance step-up and higher delivery complexity in winter.
• A California Employment Development Department audit over payroll-tax liabilities tied to Dasher classification remains unresolved, with an amount accrued and outcome uncertain.

1. Introduction & Immediate Context

DoorDash’s quarterly numbers look uniformly strong until you separate what the company bought from what it built — and until you read what management said about the fourth quarter.

In Q2 2026 the company grew total orders 27% year-on-year, Marketplace GOV 36% and revenue 36%. Excluding the impact of Deliveroo, those figures were 17%, 23% and 24% respectively, per the company’s own disclosure. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $200 million and Adjusted EBITDA was $914 million, described by management as well above expectation.

The acquisition closed on 2 October 2025, with consideration of $3.72 billion and acquisition-related costs of $58 million recorded as general and administrative expenses, according to the quarterly filing. Roughly a third of headline growth is therefore purchased rather than organic — which does not make it bad growth, but does change what the multiple is paying for.

2. Core Financial and Unit Economics Analysis

2.1 Q2 2026 at a glance

2.2 What “seasonal Dasher cost increases” actually means

The most informative line in the quarter is a guidance caveat. Take rates are expected to remain flattish in Q3 before declining in Q4 due to seasonal increases in Dasher costs, an insurance step-up and higher delivery complexity during winter months, per the earnings call summary.

Translated: in winter, DoorDash must pay more per delivery to keep enough Dashers on the road, and it does not fully pass that cost to consumers. Courier supply is price-elastic and weather-sensitive, and the platform absorbs the gap. That is a structural feature of the model, not a one-off — which is why Q4 margin compression recurs annually and why courier earnings and platform take rate are directly linked rather than independently set.

The company also took an explicit cost hit on fuel. For Q2 2026, DoorDash anticipated the gross cost of its Dasher gas relief programme at over $50 million, expecting to fund it at least partly by adjusting investment elsewhere, per its Q1 disclosure. With national pump prices above $4 per gallon through 2026, that is a direct transfer from platform margin to courier economics driven by macro energy conditions.

2.3 The fee restructure

DoorDash introduced a new fee structure for larger delivery radiuses. Management characterised it as a realignment of what consumers pay relative to the time and effort Dashers put in, noting that for the vast majority of orders the fee is similar or slightly less and that no substantial P&L impact is expected, though it could affect consumer behaviour in certain markets.

The framing is worth parsing. A distance-indexed fee acknowledges that flat pricing systematically underpays long-haul deliveries — a persistent complaint among couriers. Whether it raises courier earnings depends on how much of the incremental fee reaches the Dasher rather than the platform, which the company has not broken out.

3. Structural Drivers and Competitor Gaps

The classification question is a live liability, not a settled one. The 10-Q names an unresolved California Employment Development Department audit concerning payroll-tax liabilities tied to Dasher classification, with an amount accrued and ultimate resolution uncertain. GAAP net income fell 30% partly on higher legal and regulatory expenses. Most coverage of DoorDash’s profitability improvement omits this entirely, and it is the single largest tail risk to the cost structure.

Membership is doing the retention work. US paid DashPass members increased more in the twelve months through Q2 2026 than in the previous twenty-four months combined. Management’s stated logic is that membership reduces transactional friction through affordability, which drives retention, engagement and merchant sales. For equity analysts, subscription penetration is a better forward indicator than order growth.

Autonomy is a cost-structure bet on the courier line. DoorDash Dot, the company’s autonomous delivery effort, is expected to reach high single-digit penetration in test markets by year-end, with a Phoenix-first rollout. CEO Tony Xu has framed the difficulty as marrying operations with technology rather than as a pure technical problem. The strategic logic is straightforward: if seasonal Dasher cost increases are the recurring drag on Q4 take rate, autonomous capacity attacks that line directly. That is a multi-year thesis, not a 2027 one.

Grocery is the margin frontier and the operational problem. Management has flagged inventory accuracy as a structural challenge, addressed through DashMart Fulfillment Services — capital-intensive physical infrastructure that is complicated to roll out. Global tech-stack unification is projected fully online by early 2027.

4. Key Implications for Stakeholders

Delivery gig workers. Courier earnings are tightest exactly when the platform’s costs are highest — winter, when demand and pay both rise but so does delivery difficulty. The distance-based fee change is worth monitoring on individual earnings statements rather than taking on the company’s characterisation, since management stated most orders see a similar or slightly lower fee.

Tech sector equity analysts. Strip Deliveroo before modelling. Organic revenue growth of 24% against headline 36% is the number that should drive the multiple. Watch Q4 take rate against guidance as the cleanest test of whether courier cost inflation is cyclical or structural.

Consumer analysts. DashPass growth outpacing the prior two years combined during a period of elevated food and fuel inflation suggests the subscription is functioning as a hedge for households, not a discretionary add-on. That is a meaningfully different consumer behaviour signal than order volume alone.

Risk and compliance teams. The California audit sets a template. Any resolution establishing payroll-tax liability for classified-as-independent couriers would reprice unit economics across the entire sector, not just DoorDash.

5. Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: How much does DoorDash make per order?

Adjusted EBITDA was $914 million in Q2 2026 on $33.1 billion of Marketplace GOV — roughly 2.8% of gross order value, up from a lower share a year earlier. That margin is expected to compress in Q4 on seasonal Dasher costs.

Q2: Why is DoorDash’s net income falling while revenue rises?

GAAP net income fell 30% year-on-year to $200 million despite 36% revenue growth, driven largely by higher legal and regulatory expenses, alongside heavy investment in autonomy, AI and technology-stack unification.

Q3: Is DoorDash changing how Dashers are paid?

The company introduced a new fee structure for larger delivery radiuses, described by management as realigning consumer fees with the time and effort involved. It also ran a Dasher gas relief programme costing over $50 million gross in Q2 2026.

Q4: What is DoorDash Dot?

DoorDash’s autonomous delivery programme, expected to reach high single-digit penetration in test markets by the end of 2026, with initial scaling from Phoenix.

Key Takeaways

• Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA-3), a former auto repair shop co-owner, has built a legislative record centered on right-to-repair, trades workforce development, and semiconductor manufacturing funding.
• She helped secure a $105 million federal investment for Analog Devices, including $80 million for Pacific Northwest projects, to modernize domestic semiconductor fabrication — reinforcing Washington’s “Silicon Forest” manufacturing base.
• Described as one of the House’s most centrist Democrats, she sits in the Problem Solvers Caucus, the Blue Dog Coalition, and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and serves on the House Appropriations Committee.
• She is seeking a third term in the 2026 midterms against Republican John Braun, the Washington State Senate minority leader.
• Her legislative approach consistently favors practical, trade-oriented policy over ideological framing — a positioning that has made her a notable swing-district data point heading into November.

From Auto Shop to Appropriations Committee

Gluesenkamp Perez co-owned an auto repair and machine shop with her husband before her 2022 upset win over Republican Joe Kent, a race she repeated and won again in 2024. That hands-on business background has directly shaped her legislative priorities: she has pushed bipartisan right-to-repair legislation for agricultural equipment, introduced the Fairness for the Trades Act to expand 529 education savings plans to cover trade-career tools, and worked to ease regulatory burdens on small businesses like the one she used to run.

The Semiconductor Funding Win

In one of her more tangible economy-facing wins, Gluesenkamp Perez — alongside Washington Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell — helped secure $105 million for Analog Devices to modernize domestic chip fabrication, with $80 million specifically benefiting Pacific Northwest facilities, including an expansion in Camas. The investment targets mature-node semiconductors used in automotive, healthcare, aerospace, defense, and consumer electronics — chips that are less headline-grabbing than AI accelerators but arguably more embedded in everyday supply chains (a theme covered in our companion piece on 2026 silicon supply chain risk).

Where She Sits Politically

Caucus memberships tell their own story: Problem Solvers Caucus, Blue Dog Coalition, and Congressional Hispanic Caucus place her firmly in the House’s center-right Democratic lane. She has been publicly described as one of the chamber’s most centrist Democrats, willing to break from party lines on specific votes. Her appropriations work has focused heavily on constituent-level wins — from mobile home energy-efficiency provisions to Secure Rural Schools reauthorization — over broader ideological legislation.

2026 Midterm Context

Gluesenkamp Perez is defending her seat in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District against John Braun, the Washington State Senate’s Republican minority leader — a race widely watched as a bellwether for how centrist Democrats in competitive districts perform in the 2026 midterms.

What is Marie Gluesenkamp Perez known for in Congress?

Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA-3) is known for centrist, trades- and small-business-focused legislation, including right-to-repair bills and a $105 million semiconductor manufacturing investment for the Pacific Northwest. She sits on the House Appropriations Committee and is seeking a third term in 2026 against Republican John Braun.