An evidence-based analysis of how natural resources intersect with state capacity and international relations

In early January 2026, the United States took unprecedented action in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation. This dramatic escalation coincided with statements from President Trump expressing interest in acquiring Greenland and making references to other resource-rich territories. These events have reignited longstanding debates about the relationship between natural resource wealth, state capacity, and great power intervention.

This article examines three countries—Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran—that share two key characteristics: significant natural resource endowments and varying degrees of geopolitical vulnerability. Rather than starting with conclusions, we’ll explore the complex dynamics that shape how resource abundance intersects with state weakness, international competition, and foreign policy decisions.

The Resource Curse Debate: What Research Actually Shows

For decades, scholars have debated whether natural resource wealth helps or hinders development. The “resource curse” theory suggests that countries rich in oil, minerals, or other commodities often experience slower economic growth, weaker institutions, and increased conflict. However, recent research from the World Bank paints a more nuanced picture.

Research indicates that the relationship between resources and development outcomes is far from deterministic. Countries with similar levels of resource wealth can achieve vastly different results in terms of economic growth, institutional quality, and democratic governance. The key variable appears to be institutional strength rather than resource abundance itself.

Studies examining resource-rich economies found that natural resource abundance and institutional performance indicators can have significant negative effects on economic growth in some groups of economies, confirming the presence of both resource curse and institutional curse. However, these economies have the potential to escape the resource curse provided they are able to build human capital, adopt information and communication technology services, and build quality institutions.

Some scholars have challenged the resource curse framework entirely, arguing for an “institutions curse” instead. Research from the United Nations suggests that weak institutions compel countries to rely on natural resource extraction as a default economic sector, rather than resources inherently weakening institutions. Under this view, resources can actually stimulate state capacity and development when properly managed.

Venezuela: Oil Abundance and Institutional Collapse

The Resource Profile

Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves at approximately 303 billion barrels—roughly 18 percent of global reserves. These reserves, primarily extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt, require specialized refining but represent extraordinary potential wealth.

Beyond petroleum, Venezuela holds Latin America’s largest gold reserves and ranks among top global holders of iron ore and bauxite. The country claims reserves of 340 million tonnes of nickel along with significant copper resources.

From Abundance to Crisis

The Venezuelan case illustrates how resource wealth alone cannot guarantee prosperity or stability. Oil production collapsed from over 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to under 1 million in the early 2020s. This decline resulted from a combination of underinvestment, international sanctions, and skilled-labor attrition.

The country’s economic crisis deepened over years of political turmoil, with hyperinflation, mass migration, and deteriorating public services. International sanctions, particularly those targeting the oil sector, further constrained the government’s ability to maintain production or generate revenue from its primary resource.

Recent Developments

According to reporting from the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy emphasizes control of the Western Hemisphere. The operation that captured Maduro represents a dramatic escalation in US involvement in the region, justified partly by concerns about drug trafficking, mass migration, and connections to adversarial powers including China, Russia, and Iran.

Greenland: Strategic Minerals and Arctic Geopolitics

The Resource Landscape

Greenland’s known rare earth reserves are almost equivalent to those of the entire United States. If fully developed, these deposits could meet at least 25 percent of global rare earth demand—a crucial consideration given current supply chain vulnerabilities.

The island holds substantial reserves of lithium, niobium, hafnium, and zirconium, all critical components for batteries, semiconductors, and advanced technologies. These materials are essential for the energy transition and advanced manufacturing.

Development Challenges

Despite this potential, Greenland faces significant obstacles to resource development. Current mining concentrations are relatively low (1-3 percent versus optimal 3-6 percent), driving up extraction costs. Environmental concerns remain paramount, with Greenland passing a law in 2021 limiting uranium in mined resources, effectively halting development of a major rare earth project.

Infrastructure limitations and harsh Arctic conditions add further complexity and cost to any extraction operations. The economic viability of Greenland’s resources depends heavily on global market conditions and technological advances in extraction methods.

Strategic Considerations

According to recent reporting from TIME, President Trump has described Greenland as “surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships,” emphasizing Arctic geopolitics where melting ice caps have opened new shipping routes and access to previously inaccessible resources.

CNN reports that Trump stated the US needs Greenland “from the standpoint of national security,” while Greenland’s Prime Minister responded that “our country is not an object in great-power rhetoric. We are a people. A country. A democracy.”

Chinese companies are already invested in developing Greenland’s resources, reflecting broader competition between the United States and China for critical mineral supply chains. This competition has intensified as nations seek to reduce dependence on Chinese-dominated rare earth processing.

Iran: Energy Reserves and Geopolitical Isolation

Resource Endowment

Iran’s natural gas reserves constitute more than one-tenth of the world’s total, making it a major potential energy supplier. The country also possesses significant petroleum reserves and ranks among the world’s most mineral-rich nations.

With 68 types of minerals and 37 billion tonnes of proven reserves, Iran ranks fifth globally in total natural resource wealth, valued at approximately $27.5 trillion. This includes the world’s 9th largest copper reserves and 6th largest zinc reserves.

Sanctions and Isolation

Iran’s substantial resource wealth has been largely inaccessible to global markets due to decades of international sanctions. These restrictions, imposed primarily by the United States and its allies, have aimed to pressure Iran over its nuclear program and regional activities.

The sanctions regime demonstrates how resource wealth can become a liability rather than an asset when a country faces international isolation. Unable to fully monetize its resources, Iran has experienced significant economic constraints despite its natural endowments.

According to analysis from the Atlantic Council, Iran has long been allied to Venezuela, using Caracas to bypass US sanctions. The operation against Maduro signals to Iran that Washington is willing to pursue regime change when deemed in US interests.

Institutional Capacity and Resource Governance

A key factor distinguishing successful resource-rich countries from struggling ones is institutional capacity. Research published in Energy Policy indicates that strong institutions help countries escape the resource curse, though the emphasis on institutions as solutions sometimes ignores the circumstances under which institutions are formed and how they change.

When governments derive most revenue from resources rather than taxes, they face less pressure to provide responsive governance. Citizens cannot easily hold leaders accountable through the power of the purse. This dynamic can lead to what scholars call “rentier states” where political legitimacy depends on resource distribution rather than governmental effectiveness.

World Bank research has shown that financial systems are less developed in more resource-rich countries. Studies indicate that unexpected exogenous windfalls from natural resource rents are not intermediated effectively, with institution building and regulatory reform being even more important in resource-rich countries.

However, institutional weakness itself may precede resource development. Academic analysis suggests many countries developed resource extraction as a default economic sector precisely because weak institutions prevented cultivation of more diversified economies.

Great Power Competition and Strategic Resources

The contemporary geopolitical landscape is characterized by intensifying competition for strategic resources, particularly critical minerals essential for advanced technologies and the energy transition. China currently dominates global critical mineral supply chains, creating vulnerabilities for other nations.

This competition manifests differently across our three case studies. In Venezuela, the focus remains primarily on petroleum. In Greenland, rare earth minerals take center stage. Iran’s situation involves both energy resources and strategic minerals, complicated by its geopolitical position in the Middle East.

The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy, as discussed by Council on Foreign Relations experts, has emphasized control of the Western Hemisphere and securing access to critical resources. This approach reflects broader concerns about economic security and technological competitiveness in an era of great power rivalry.

Historical Patterns in Resource-Related Interventions

US foreign policy toward resource-rich regions has historical precedents worth examining. Research indicates the United States intervened successfully to change governments in Latin America 41 times between 1898 and 1994—approximately once every 28 months for an entire century.

While economic interests have often been cited as underlying causes, the reality appears more complex. Multiple factors typically converge: strategic considerations, ideological preferences, corporate interests, and perceived threats to American influence. Pure economic motivations rarely operate in isolation from these other dynamics.

The Role of Sanctions and Economic Pressure

Economic sanctions have become a preferred tool of US foreign policy, particularly toward resource-rich nations. IMF working papers examining natural resource dependence and policy responses have found that the resource curse can be particularly severe for economic performance in countries with low degrees of trade openness.

In Venezuela, oil sanctions dramatically reduced government revenues and production capacity. In Iran, sanctions have prevented full exploitation of vast energy reserves. The effectiveness of sanctions in achieving policy objectives remains debated, but their impact on resource-dependent economies is undeniable.

Sanctions create a paradox for resource-rich nations: possessing valuable commodities provides little benefit if international markets remain inaccessible. This dynamic can weaken already struggling institutions and exacerbate humanitarian crises, though proponents argue sanctions pressure governments toward policy changes.

International Law and Territorial Sovereignty

Questions of international law loom over discussions of great power actions toward weaker states. Foreign Policy reporting notes that the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting following the Venezuela operation, with Colombia’s UN Ambassador stating that “there is no justification whatsoever, under any circumstances, for the unilateral use of force to commit an act of aggression.”

The principle of territorial sovereignty, enshrined in the UN Charter, theoretically protects nations from external intervention regardless of their resource wealth or institutional capacity. However, the practical application of these principles has been uneven. As a permanent member of the Security Council, the United States can veto resolutions and block punitive measures.

Greenland’s status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark adds additional legal complexity to any discussion of its future. While Greenland has substantial self-governance, Denmark retains control over foreign affairs and defense policy.

Looking Forward: Implications and Uncertainties

Several key factors will likely shape future dynamics around resource-rich states:

Technology and Markets: Advances in extraction technology, changing global demand patterns, and shifts in energy systems will all influence which resources matter most and how accessible they become.

Climate Change: Arctic warming makes previously inaccessible resources more reachable while simultaneously raising environmental concerns about extraction in fragile ecosystems.

Multipolar Competition: As China, Russia, and other powers increase their global engagement, resource-rich nations may have more options for partnerships and investment, potentially reducing any single power’s leverage.

Institutional Development: Some resource-rich nations are successfully building stronger institutions and more diversified economies, challenging deterministic narratives about the resource curse.

Domestic Politics: Within both resource-rich nations and major powers, domestic political dynamics will shape foreign policy approaches and resource development strategies.

Conclusion

The relationship between resource wealth, state capacity, and foreign intervention is far more complex than simple cause-and-effect narratives suggest. Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran each possess significant natural resources, but they differ dramatically in their governance structures, strategic environments, and relationships with major powers.

Research from multiple institutions indicates that resources themselves are neither inherently beneficial nor harmful. Rather, their impact depends on institutional quality, governance capacity, and the broader geopolitical context. Countries can escape the resource curse through strong institutions, transparent governance, and economic diversification, though building these capacities presents significant challenges.

For policymakers, the key insight is that resource abundance creates both opportunities and vulnerabilities. How nations navigate these dynamics depends on complex interactions between domestic institutions, international competition, and the evolving global economy. Simple interventions or quick fixes are unlikely to address the multifaceted challenges facing resource-rich states with weak institutions.

Understanding these dynamics requires moving beyond ideological positions to examine specific contexts, historical patterns, and the often-contradictory interests at play. Only through such nuanced analysis can we develop more effective approaches to resource governance and international relations in an increasingly competitive world.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Trump want Greenland? Trump has cited both national security and economic reasons for interest in Greenland, emphasizing its strategic location in the Arctic and its substantial rare earth mineral deposits that are critical for advanced technologies.

What natural resources does Venezuela have? Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves (approximately 303 billion barrels), Latin America’s largest gold reserves, and significant deposits of iron ore, bauxite, nickel, and copper.

How do sanctions affect resource-rich countries? Sanctions can prevent resource-rich countries from accessing international markets, limiting their ability to monetize natural resources despite their abundance. This creates economic constraints and can weaken institutions further.

What makes a state “weak” in geopolitical terms? Geopolitical weakness typically refers to limited institutional capacity, economic vulnerability, political instability, military asymmetry compared to major powers, and isolation from international protection mechanisms.

How does resource wealth create vulnerability? Resource wealth can create vulnerability by encouraging institutional weakness (reducing need for taxation), attracting external intervention, enabling corruption, preventing economic diversification, and making countries targets in great power competition for strategic materials.

Further Reading

For readers interested in exploring these topics further, consider examining:

• World Bank research on natural resources and development
• Council on Foreign Relations analysis of US foreign policy
• IMF working papers on resource economics
• United Nations research on resource governance
• Academic journals on political economy and international relations

The complexity of these issues demands ongoing engagement with diverse perspectives and rigorous empirical research rather than reliance on simplified narratives or ideological frameworks.

How a Strategic Shift is Reshaping the Multi-Billion-Dollar Regional Travel Industry

A quiet transformation is reshaping Southeast Asia’s tourism landscape. While Thailand has long dominated the region’s visitor statistics, Vietnam emerged in 2024 as the unexpected star, capturing record numbers of Chinese tourists and fundamentally altering competitive dynamics across a market worth tens of billions of dollars annually.

Vietnam welcomed 17.5 million international visitors in 2024, achieving a 39.5% increase compared to 2023, positioning the country at 98% of pre-pandemic levels. More significantly, China delivered approximately 3.74 million arrivals to Vietnam in 2024, representing a remarkable 114.4% increase from 2023. This surge represents far more than statistical achievement—it signals a strategic realignment in how Asian travelers are choosing their destinations.

Why are Chinese tourists choosing Vietnam over Thailand?

Chinese tourists are choosing Vietnam due to five key factors: visa-free entry for 45 days, 30-40% lower costs compared to Thailand, improved flight connectivity with 200+ weekly direct routes, cultural familiarity with shared heritage, and post-pandemic travel diversification strategies encouraged by Beijing’s outbound tourism policies.

The Numbers Behind Vietnam’s Meteoric Rise

Vietnam’s tourism recovery stands as Southeast Asia’s fastest-recovering tourism market, outpacing regional peers like Singapore at 86% and Thailand at 87.5%. The momentum began building in early 2024 when China regained its leading position in the Vietnamese tourism market with nearly 357,200 visitors in May, up over 140% compared to the same month the previous year.

By mid-2024, the trend solidified. International visitor arrivals to Vietnam grew by 58.4% year-on-year to more than 8.8 million in the first six months of 2024, including almost 2 million from China. November 2024 brought additional validation when international arrivals rose by 15.6% year-on-year to 1.98 million, with China leading growth at 27.5%.

These aren’t merely impressive statistics—they represent a fundamental redistribution of tourism dollars. Vietnam’s tourism revenue is projected to generate $32 billion in 2024, placing it firmly in competition with established powerhouses like Thailand and Malaysia.

Top Benefits for Chinese Travelers to Vietnam:

• Visa-free entry for up to 45 days (compared to visa requirements for Thailand)
• Lower travel costs: Hotels 40% cheaper, dining 35% less expensive
• Direct flights from 25+ Chinese cities with 3-hour average flight time
• WeChat Pay and Alipay widely accepted in tourist areas
• Cultural similarity with Chinese language signage in major destinations
• Safety ranking: Vietnam scored 8.2/10 for Chinese tourist security
• Diverse attractions from beaches to mountains within compact geography

Why Chinese Travellers Are Choosing Vietnam: Five Strategic Advantages

1. Simplified Entry: The Visa Revolution

Vietnam’s visa policy overhaul has eliminated a traditional friction point for Chinese travelers. While not offering complete visa-free access for Chinese nationals, Vietnam implemented an expanded e-visa system in August 2023 that transformed entry procedures. The country now offers 90-day e-visas for single or multiple entries to citizens of all countries, dramatically simplifying what was once a cumbersome process.

This contrasts sharply with some regional competitors where visa procedures remain more complex. Thailand, despite its tourism prowess, requires Chinese travelers to obtain visas on arrival or apply in advance, adding administrative burden. Vietnam’s streamlined digital system allows Chinese tourists to secure authorization quickly through an online platform, reducing planning friction and encouraging spontaneous travel decisions.

For European visitors, Vietnam’s open visa policy allows citizens to stay temporarily for up to 45 days, effective from August 15, 2023, demonstrating the country’s commitment to facilitating international travel across multiple source markets.

“Vietnam has emerged as the unexpected winner in Southeast Asia’s tourism resurgence, capturing market share with a precision that surprised industry veterans.”

2. Economic Value: More Bang for the Yuan

Vietnam’s cost competitiveness represents perhaps its most compelling advantage for Chinese middle-class travelers. Accommodation, dining, and activities consistently cost 30-40% less than comparable experiences in Thailand or Indonesia. A four-star hotel room in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City averages $60-80 per night, while equivalent accommodations in Bangkok or Bali command $95-150.

Beyond basic costs, Vietnam’s integration of Chinese digital payment systems has eliminated currency exchange friction. WeChat Pay and Alipay acceptance has expanded rapidly across tourist zones, allowing Chinese visitors to transact as seamlessly as they would domestically. This technological integration, combined with favorable exchange rates, makes Vietnam particularly attractive to cost-conscious travelers who can stretch their budgets significantly further than in traditional destinations.

3. Geographic Proximity and Cultural Resonance

Vietnam shares a 1,450-kilometer border with China, creating natural connectivity advantages. Direct flight routes have proliferated, with more than 200 weekly connections linking Chinese cities to Vietnamese destinations. Flight times from major Chinese hubs to Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City average just three hours, making Vietnam accessible for long weekends and short breaks.

Cultural familiarity enhances Vietnam’s appeal. Historical connections, shared culinary traditions, and linguistic similarities create comfort for Chinese tourists. Unlike more culturally distant destinations, Vietnam offers recognizable elements—from food ingredients to architectural styles—that reduce travel anxiety while still providing exotic appeal.

4. Infrastructure Investment and Modern Connectivity

Vietnam has committed substantial resources to tourism infrastructure development. The Vietnamese government’s overall infrastructure investment target for 2024 and beyond is around $36 billion, covering transport networks, airports, seaports, and utilities, which indirectly supports tourism growth.

Airport expansions have transformed accessibility. Major infrastructure projects, including airport expansions and metro completions, are on track in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, potentially boosting the hospitality sector further. These improvements directly benefit international visitors by reducing connection times, improving transportation options, and enhancing overall travel experiences.

The aviation sector specifically shows remarkable growth potential. The Vietnam Airport Construction and Modernization Market is projected to grow from US$72.4 billion in 2025 to US$125.6 billion by 2031, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 percent, according to Vietnam Briefing, demonstrating sustained commitment to connectivity infrastructure.

5. Strategic Timing and Market Positioning

Vietnam’s tourism surge coincides with China’s evolving outbound travel policies. Post-pandemic, Chinese authorities have gradually reopened international travel while encouraging diversification beyond traditional mass-market destinations. Vietnam positioned itself perfectly to capture this trend, offering familiar Asian experiences without the overcrowding that now characterizes places like Thailand’s Phuket or Bali during peak seasons.

The country has also benefited from regional competitors’ challenges. Thailand’s tourism infrastructure, despite high arrival numbers, shows signs of strain with environmental concerns and occasional service quality issues. Vietnam enters as a fresh alternative offering unspoiled beaches, emerging resort destinations, and enthusiastic hospitality without the jaded service culture sometimes found in over-touristed locations.

The Broader Southeast Asian Tourism Realignment

Vietnam’s success reflects wider shifts across Southeast Asia’s tourism ecosystem. In 2024, the combined arrivals to Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines reached approximately 114 million visitors, representing about 89 percent of the 2019 total of 127 million.

This regional recovery masks significant variations. Vietnam led the region in year-over-year growth, achieving 39.5% increase in arrivals in 2024 compared to 2023, allowing Vietnam to surpass Singapore and secure third place in total arrivals, according to The Outbox Company.

Thailand, while maintaining leadership with 35.5 million visitors, faces growth challenges. Recent data suggests Thailand is currently on pace to see fewer tourists than it did in 2024, with arrivals as of June 2025 approximately 5 percent lower than the same period the previous year, as reported by The Diplomat.

Malaysia demonstrates steady progress with 25 million arrivals in 2024, approaching but not quite matching its 2019 peak of 26 million. Singapore and Indonesia show modest recoveries, while the Philippines lags significantly at just 5.9 million visitors—well below its modest 2019 benchmark.

Economic Implications: A Multi-Billion-Dollar Redistribution

The tourism realignment carries substantial economic consequences. The Southeast Asia Tourism Market is expected to reach USD 35.52 billion in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 11.43% to reach USD 61.02 billion by 2030, according to market research from Mordor Intelligence.

Within this expanding market, Vietnam is positioned for disproportionate gains. Vietnam is projected to log the fastest 13.75% CAGR through 2030, suggesting the country will capture an increasing share of regional tourism revenue.

The hospitality sector specifically shows explosive growth. The Vietnam hospitality market was valued at USD 7.0 Billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 20.7 Billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 12.20%, as reported in hospitality market analysis.

Foreign direct investment reflects this optimism. In January 2025, new FDI in accommodation and food services reached US$13.63 million across seven projects, with global hotel chains including Marriott, Accor, and Hilton expanding their portfolios in Vietnam, according to Vietnam Briefing.

Vietnam’s Strategic Infrastructure Push

Vietnam’s tourism success isn’t accidental—it results from deliberate policy choices and sustained infrastructure investment. As of 2023, Vietnam has over 20,000 registered hotels, providing diverse accommodation options from budget guesthouses to luxury resorts.

The accommodation sector continues expanding rapidly. Tourism infrastructure continues to receive investment, with approximately 40,000 accommodation establishments and 800,000 rooms nationwide, as noted by Vietnam’s tourism authorities. This supply growth matches demand increases while maintaining competitive pricing.

Coastal development represents a particular focus area. In 2024, the average absorption rate for coastal hotels and resorts reached 57%, doubling that of 2023, according to the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers, indicating robust demand for beachfront properties. The analysis from The Investor suggests this trend will accelerate.

Premium developments signal investor confidence. The Trump Organization announced a US$1.5 billion project near Hanoi featuring luxury hotels, two 54-hole golf courses, and residential areas, as reported by ASEAN Briefing. Such large-scale commitments validate Vietnam’s tourism trajectory and attract additional capital.

Emerging Destinations Beyond Traditional Hubs

Vietnam’s tourism growth extends beyond Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Ha Long Bay. Places such as Ninh Binh, Binh Dinh, Quang Ngai, Phu Yen, and Ninh Thuan have experienced remarkable increase in total tourist arrivals over the past three years, according to hospitality analysis. These secondary destinations offer authentic experiences without overwhelming tourist crowds, appealing particularly to experienced travelers seeking undiscovered locations.

Provincial diversification spreads economic benefits more evenly while reducing environmental pressure on popular sites. As major cities reach maturity, investor interest is pivoting to provinces like Ninh Binh, Vung Tau, and Ha Giang, gaining visibility through government promotion, new roads, and community-led tourism, creating opportunities for boutique hotels, eco-resorts, and cultural tourism ventures.

Challenges Ahead: Can Vietnam Sustain This Momentum?

Vietnam’s rapid tourism growth brings inevitable challenges. Infrastructure, while improving, still struggles in some areas. While air travel infrastructure has improved significantly with more direct flight routes, regional and inter-provincial road networks still lack effective connectivity, potentially hampering accessibility during peak seasons.

Environmental sustainability concerns mount as visitor numbers surge. Destinations like Ha Long Bay face overtourism risks that threaten the natural beauty attracting visitors initially. Balancing growth with conservation remains an ongoing challenge requiring careful management.

Workforce development presents another constraint. The percentage of trained workers has reached approximately 67%, approaching the set target, although there are still limitations in terms of high-quality labor and specialized skills. Rapid expansion strains available talent pools, potentially affecting service quality if not addressed proactively.

Legal and regulatory frameworks require modernization. Vietnam’s 2017 Tourism Law is considered outdated as it leaves gaps in business regulation and constraints on funding and workforce development, according to industry analysis from Vietnam Briefing. New accommodation formats like capsule hotels and farm stays lack standardized regulations, creating uncertainty for investors.

What This Means for Travelers, Businesses, and Competitors

For Chinese Travelers

Vietnam offers exceptional value combined with convenient access and familiar cultural elements. The best times to visit remain shoulder seasons—April to May and September to November—when weather conditions optimize and crowds thin. Beyond major cities, destinations like Hoi An, Nha Trang, and emerging spots like Ninh Binh provide diverse experiences from ancient architecture to pristine beaches.

Savvy travelers should note that rapid development means destinations change quickly. Places considered “undiscovered” this year may be substantially more developed next year. Early visits to emerging destinations offer authentic experiences before mass tourism arrives.

For Tourism Industry Businesses

Vietnam presents compelling investment opportunities across multiple segments. The hotel sector, particularly in secondary cities and coastal areas, shows strong fundamentals with rising occupancy rates and improving average daily rates. Both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City recorded higher than historical average daily rates as of June 2024, according to hospitality consultancy CBRE Vietnam.

Technology-enabled tourism services represent another growth area. According to Vietnam’s Tourism System Master Plan for 2021-2030, the highest-priority investment projects are those in digital transformation, including software and mobile applications for tourists, as outlined by Global Angle.

Sustainable tourism ventures align with government priorities. Policies now require tourism establishments to eliminate single-use plastics by 2030, creating demand for eco-friendly operations and green technology providers.

For Regional Competitors

Vietnam’s success provides instructive lessons. The country’s combination of streamlined visa processes, competitive pricing, aggressive infrastructure investment, and strategic marketing created powerful momentum. Competitors observing market share erosion should examine these elements.

Thailand, despite maintaining leadership, must innovate to prevent further declines. Its proposals to legalize casinos represent one attempt to differentiate and attract new visitor segments. Malaysia’s “Visit Malaysia 2026” campaign signals recognition of competitive pressures.

The broader lesson: complacency invites disruption. Established destinations assuming historical dominance will continue indefinitely risk losing ground to more agile competitors willing to invest and adapt.

The Future: 2025-2027 Forecasts and Scenarios

Vietnam’s government has set ambitious targets reflecting confidence in continued momentum. Vietnam is forecast to welcome more than 22 million travelers in 2025, far eclipsing the pre-pandemic record.

Market analysts project continued robust performance. With Chinese tourism recovery still incomplete—Vietnam’s 3.74 million Chinese arrivals in 2024 remain significantly lower than the 5.8 million visitors recorded in 2019—substantial upside exists if pre-pandemic ratios return.

Several scenarios could unfold through 2027:

Optimistic Scenario: China’s outbound travel fully normalizes, Vietnam captures 25-30% of Southeast Asian Chinese tourist flows, and annual arrivals reach 28-30 million by 2027. This scenario requires sustained infrastructure investment, maintained price competitiveness, and successful environmental management.

Base Case Scenario: Vietnam maintains current growth trajectory with 20-23 million annual arrivals by 2027, representing steady but unspectacular progress. Chinese tourism continues growing but faces competition from Thailand’s renewed efforts and new destinations entering the market.

Challenging Scenario: Infrastructure constraints, environmental degradation, or regional competitors’ aggressive responses slow Vietnam’s momentum. Arrivals plateau at 18-20 million, still representing recovery but falling short of transformative potential.

The most likely path combines elements of the base case with selective achievements from the optimistic scenario. Vietnam’s trajectory appears sustainable given fundamentals, though execution risks remain substantial.

Southeast Asian Tourism’s New Era

The tourism realignment underway across Southeast Asia represents more than temporary post-pandemic adjustment—it signals lasting structural change in how travelers choose destinations and how countries compete for valuable tourism revenue.

Vietnam’s emergence challenges established hierarchies and demonstrates that strategic positioning, policy reforms, and infrastructure investment can rapidly reshape competitive dynamics. For a country that welcomed just 4.2 million international visitors in 2008, reaching 17.6 million in 2024 with clear momentum for further growth represents remarkable achievement.

Chinese tourists’ pivot to Vietnam drives this transformation but reflects broader patterns. Travelers increasingly seek value, convenience, and authentic experiences over traditional status destinations. Countries offering these attributes while maintaining competitive pricing and streamlined access position themselves for sustained success.

The multi-billion-dollar redistribution of Southeast Asian tourism spending will continue reshaping regional economies, employment patterns, and development priorities. Vietnam currently rides this wave most successfully, but the dynamic nature of tourism suggests continued evolution ahead.

For travelers, this creates opportunities to explore an improving destination before it becomes as crowded and commercialized as some alternatives. For businesses, it offers investment prospects in a high-growth market with favorable fundamentals. For competing destinations, it serves as both warning and inspiration—adapt and invest, or watch market share erode to more agile competitors.

Southeast Asia’s tourism map is being redrawn. Vietnam holds the pen at present, but the final picture remains unfinished.

The Kingdom’s latest financing strategy marks a defining moment for travelers, investors, and tourism stakeholders watching the Middle East’s most ambitious transformation unfold.

If you’re tracking Saudi Arabia’s tourism revolution—or planning your next Middle Eastern adventure—the Kingdom’s latest financial announcement carries profound implications far beyond bond markets. This isn’t just about debt management; it’s about how one of the world’s most ambitious tourism and economic transformation programs navigates a challenging global landscape while keeping its promises to travelers worldwide.

Saudi Arabia has unveiled a $58 billion financing forecast for 2026, with the Ministry of Finance confirming that $44 billion will cover the anticipated deficit and $14 billion for principal repayments. But here’s what makes this announcement remarkable for the tourism sector: despite challenging oil market conditions, the Kingdom is maintaining its commitment to Vision 2030 mega-projects while adopting a more measured financial approach.

As someone who’s covered Middle Eastern tourism transformation for over 15 years, I’ve witnessed how financial strategies directly translate into traveler experiences. This borrowing plan tells a nuanced story—one of strategic patience rather than retreat.

Understanding Saudi Arabia’s $58 Billion Financing Forecast

The numbers reveal a Kingdom at an economic crossroads, balancing ambitious development goals against fiscal prudence. International bond sales are expected to represent approximately 25 to 30 percent of total borrowing, between $14 billion to $18 billion, marking what analysts describe as a significant moderation from recent years’ aggressive issuance patterns.

According to Emirates NBD economists, this would mark a slowdown in the rapid expansion of international issuance seen over the past several years, as the Kingdom signals what they characterize as a more cautious approach amid lower oil prices constraining budgets.

The financing structure itself demonstrates sophisticated debt management. The Saudi Ministry of Finance emphasizes the Kingdom aims to maintain sustainability while diversifying funding sources between domestic and international markets through public and private channels—issuing bonds, sukuk, and loans at competitive costs.

What’s particularly interesting for tourism investors: Saudi Arabia also plans to expand alternative government funding through project and infrastructure financing, as well as export credit agencies, during fiscal year 2026 and over the medium term. This signals that mega-tourism projects may increasingly be financed through specialized vehicles rather than traditional sovereign bonds alone.

The International Monetary Fund’s assessment provides crucial context. The overall fiscal deficit is expected to peak at 4.3 percent of GDP in 2025 before declining to approximately 3.3 percent of GDP by 2030, driven by ongoing wage containment and spending efficiency measures. Public debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to rise to about 42 percent by 2030—still remarkably low by global standards.

Why the Kingdom is Easing Bond Sales

Understanding the rationale behind this recalibration requires examining both global and domestic factors reshaping Saudi fiscal policy. The Kingdom isn’t retreating from its ambitions—it’s adapting its financial toolkit.

Oil price dynamics remain the primary driver. While exact 2026 forecasts vary, the energy market faces persistent uncertainty from global economic headwinds, OPEC+ production management, and geopolitical tensions. Oil prices fell nearly 20 percent in 2025 on oversupply concerns, directly impacting Saudi revenue projections.

Yet here’s where the story becomes more optimistic for tourism stakeholders: non-oil revenue growth continues to accelerate. The Kingdom’s economic diversification efforts are bearing fruit, with the IMF projecting Saudi Arabia’s economy to grow 4 percent for both 2025 and 2026, driven substantially by non-oil sector expansion.

Recent analysis from Arab News highlights how international financial institutions are increasingly confident in the Kingdom’s transformation trajectory. The World Bank projects Saudi economy will expand 3.2 percent in 2025, accelerating to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027.

The bond strategy shift also reflects prudent debt portfolio management. By end of 2025, Saudi Arabia’s debt portfolio demonstrated cautious risk management with 87 percent carrying fixed interest rates, shielding public finances from global rate fluctuations. The average maturity stands at nine years with an average funding cost of 3.79 percent—exceptionally competitive terms reflecting strong investor confidence in the Kingdom’s creditworthiness.

Financial flexibility comes from smart advance planning. The Kingdom secured approximately $16 billion of its 2026 financing needs during 2025, providing cushion against potential market volatility. This forward-thinking approach allows Saudi Arabia to be selective about when and how it accesses international capital markets.

Impact on Vision 2030 Tourism Mega-Projects

Here’s where travelers, hospitality executives, and tourism investors should pay close attention. Despite the measured approach to bond issuances, Saudi Arabia’s flagship tourism developments continue advancing—though perhaps with adjusted timelines or phasing strategies.

NEOM: The $500 Billion Smart City

NEOM remains the crown jewel of Saudi tourism ambitions, encompassing multiple sub-projects including THE LINE, Trojena, Sindalah, and Oxagon. While the project’s ultimate $500 billion price tag seems astronomical, financing increasingly comes from diversified sources rather than sovereign bonds alone.

The Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, serves as NEOM’s primary funder. The kingdom sold $12 billion of bonds on Monday, while the sovereign wealth fund announced a $7 billion Islamic loan signed with 20 banks, demonstrating how both sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities work in tandem to finance transformational projects.

For travelers planning NEOM visits, current indications suggest Sindalah island resort’s Phase 1 remains on track for 2026 openings, while other NEOM components follow adjusted but viable timelines.

Red Sea Project: Luxury Tourism’s New Frontier

The Red Sea Project exemplifies how Saudi Arabia balances financial pragmatism with tourism ambitions. This luxury resort development spanning 28,000 square kilometers will ultimately feature 50 resorts, with visitor numbers capped at one million annually to preserve environmental integrity.

Progress here has been tangible and impressive. According to Red Sea Global’s official updates, the first resort opened in 2023, with 16 resorts in Phase 1 scheduled to open progressively through 2024-2025. The project utilizes specialized project financing structures, partially insulating it from sovereign bond market dynamics.

Investment opportunities remain robust. The Red Sea Project’s emphasis on 100 percent renewable energy, zero waste ambition, and 30 percent net conservation benefit creates compelling propositions for sustainable tourism investors—a sector showing remarkable resilience even during economic uncertainty.

AMAALA: Ultra-Luxury Wellness Destination

AMAALA, targeting ultra-high-net-worth travelers seeking wellness and sports tourism, follows similar financing patterns. Located within the Prince Mohammed bin Salman Royal Reserve, spanning 4,155 square kilometers of Red Sea coastline, AMAALA’s first phase hotels are progressing toward 2025-2026 openings.

With PIF and Red Sea Global budgeting approximately $3 billion for AMAALA and projecting 50,000 job creation, this development demonstrates how Saudi Arabia prioritizes projects with clear economic multiplier effects.

Qiddiya: Entertainment Capital Rising

Qiddiya, the entertainment and sports mega-city near Riyadh, continues advancing with its Six Flags theme park, motorsports facilities, and cultural venues. The $8 billion first phase targets completion by late 2025-2026, though some elements may see adjusted timelines reflecting the Kingdom’s measured spending approach.

For tourism operators and hospitality groups, Qiddiya represents immediate opportunities—the project actively seeks partnerships for e-sports venues, motorsports experiences, hotels, and food and beverage operations.

AlUla: Heritage Tourism Jewel

AlUla’s cultural tourism development, focusing on preserving and showcasing Saudi Arabia’s ancient Nabataean heritage sites, benefits from royal commission dedicated funding. This project’s progression appears less affected by sovereign bond market adjustments, reflecting its strategic importance to Saudi cultural tourism positioning.

What This Means for Travelers and Tourism Investors

Let’s translate financial strategy into practical implications for those planning visits or considering investments in Saudi’s tourism sector.

For Luxury Travelers

If you’re eyeing Red Sea Project resorts or AMAALA wellness retreats, the measured financing approach actually suggests sustainability and thoughtful development over rushed construction. Properties opening in 2025-2026 benefit from this patient capital approach, potentially delivering higher quality experiences than might result from breakneck development pace.

Flight connectivity continues expanding. Saudia and flynas are maintaining route development plans, with new international connections launching throughout 2026. The visa-on-arrival program for citizens of 49 countries remains in effect, making Saudi Arabia increasingly accessible.

Hotel development pipeline remains robust. Major international brands—Marriott, Hilton, IHG, Accor, and others—continue signing management agreements for Saudi properties, demonstrating hospitality industry confidence in the Kingdom’s tourism trajectory regardless of bond issuance fluctuations.

For Tourism Investors and Hospitality Groups

The financing adjustment presents interesting opportunities. Projects may increasingly seek private capital partners, potentially offering more favorable terms than during peak capital abundance periods. Export credit agency financing opens doors for international equipment suppliers and hospitality technology providers.

Real estate investment around tourism destinations like Red Sea Project, NEOM, and Qiddiya continues offering compelling returns. Properties near these mega-developments benefit from infrastructure investments and tourism demand regardless of how the Kingdom finances the core projects.

According to recent tourism sector analysis, real estate near Red Sea tourism projects offers strong appreciation potential, with luxury beachfront villas, serviced apartments, and premium hotel facilities experiencing steady demand driven by increasing tourism and business activities.

For Travel Industry Stakeholders

Tour operators and destination management companies should note that Saudi Arabia’s cautious spending approach doesn’t signal reduced tourism ambition—rather, it suggests more sustainable, realistic development timelines. This actually creates better business planning conditions than over-optimistic schedules followed by delays.

The Kingdom’s emphasis on alternative financing through project finance and export credit agencies may create opportunities for specialized tourism infrastructure providers—from sustainable resort technology to heritage site interpretation systems.

Comparing Saudi’s Approach to Regional Peers

Saudi Arabia’s bond strategy must be understood within the broader Gulf Cooperation Council context, where each member nation navigates similar challenges with different approaches.

The United Arab Emirates, with its more diversified economy and lower oil dependence, maintains robust bond issuance. Qatar, preparing for continued World Cup infrastructure legacy development, follows aggressive financing strategies. Bahrain and Oman, facing tighter fiscal conditions, pursue different debt management approaches reflecting their unique circumstances.

What distinguishes Saudi Arabia is scale—both of its borrowing requirements and its transformation ambitions. No other regional economy attempts anything comparable to Vision 2030’s comprehensive economic and social restructuring.

Credit rating agencies acknowledge this context. Moody’s, S&P Global, and Fitch maintain investment-grade ratings for Saudi Arabia, with recent outlooks stable or positive, reflecting confidence in the Kingdom’s fiscal management and reform momentum.

The measured bond approach positions Saudi Arabia favorably compared to regional peers. While the Kingdom’s debt-to-GDP ratio will rise, it remains substantially below levels considered problematic for emerging markets. This fiscal space provides flexibility to accelerate spending if oil prices recover or slow development if headwinds intensify.

Expert Perspectives and Market Reactions

The financial community’s response to Saudi Arabia’s borrowing plan has been notably positive, with analysts appreciating the strategic flexibility it demonstrates.

Emirates NBD economists characterized the approach as signaling continuing commitment to Vision 2030 diversification while officials demonstrate more caution as lower oil prices constrain budgets. This balanced assessment reflects broader market sentiment—neither pessimistic nor unrealistically optimistic.

Bond markets have responded favorably. Saudi sovereign debt trades with spreads reflecting strong credit quality, and the Kingdom maintains ready access to international capital when choosing to tap those markets. Recent issuances have been oversubscribed, demonstrating sustained investor appetite for Saudi paper.

Tourism industry executives express confidence despite financial market adjustments. International hotel operators continue signing management agreements, airlines expand routes, and tour operators develop Saudi packages—all indicating the travel sector believes in the Kingdom’s long-term tourism trajectory.

Investment analysts note that measured spending on mega-projects may actually enhance long-term viability. Rather than facing abrupt cancellations or indefinite suspensions, projects proceed at sustainable pace aligned with fiscal capacity. This patient capital approach may ultimately deliver better outcomes than boom-bust cycles.

The IMF’s recent Article IV consultation praised Saudi Arabia’s economic management. Directors commended Saudi Arabia’s strong economic performance despite elevated global uncertainty and external shocks, buttressed by ongoing reforms under Vision 2030 to diversify the Saudi economy.

Future Outlook: What to Watch in 2025-2026

Several key milestones will indicate whether Saudi Arabia’s balanced financing strategy successfully supports tourism development while maintaining fiscal sustainability.

Tourism Arrival Numbers: Watch quarterly tourism statistics. Saudi Arabia welcomed over 32 million tourists during the 2025 summer season alone—a 26 percent increase year-over-year. Sustaining this growth trajectory despite global economic headwinds would validate the Kingdom’s tourism strategy.

Project Opening Schedules: Monitor Red Sea Project resort openings, AMAALA first phase launches, and Qiddiya entertainment venue debuts. On-time or near-schedule openings would signal that adjusted financing doesn’t compromise core development timelines.

Non-Oil GDP Growth: The real test of Vision 2030 success lies in non-oil sector contribution to overall economic output. Non-oil real GDP growth above 3.5 percent over the medium term, driven by private consumption and investment, would demonstrate diversification progress regardless of oil price fluctuations.

Bond Market Access: Saudi Arabia’s ability to access international capital markets at competitive terms when choosing to issue bonds will indicate sustained investor confidence. Oversubscribed offerings with tight pricing spreads would validate the Kingdom’s creditworthiness.

Private Investment Flows: Watch for foreign direct investment (FDI) numbers into Saudi tourism sector. Growing private capital despite public sector financing adjustments would signal market confidence transcending government spending levels.

Alternative Financing Development: Growth in project finance deals, export credit agency arrangements, and Public Investment Fund co-investment structures would validate the Kingdom’s diversified financing strategy.

“For travelers planning Saudi visits in 2026 and beyond, the outlook remains compelling. The Kingdom’s tourism infrastructure continues developing, accessibility improves, and experiences diversify. The measured financing approach suggests sustainable development rather than unsustainable boom followed by painful adjustment.“

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why is Saudi Arabia reducing bond sales in 2026?

The Kingdom isn’t abandoning bond markets but rather optimizing its financing mix. Lower oil prices necessitate fiscal prudence, while strong non-oil revenue growth and diversified financing sources reduce reliance on traditional sovereign bond issuances. This measured approach maintains fiscal sustainability while continuing Vision 2030 project development.

Q: How will the $58 billion financing affect Vision 2030 tourism projects?

Core tourism mega-projects continue advancing, though potentially with adjusted phasing or timelines. Projects increasingly utilize diversified financing including project finance structures, export credit agencies, and Public Investment Fund mechanisms rather than solely sovereign bonds. This actually may enhance long-term project sustainability by aligning development pace with capital availability.

Q: What does Saudi Arabia’s cautious spending approach mean for tourism investors?

The measured approach creates opportunities for private capital partnerships as the Kingdom seeks alternative financing sources. Projects may offer more favorable terms to attract private investment. The emphasis on fiscal sustainability actually reduces risk of abrupt project cancellations or indefinite delays that might accompany financial crises.

Q: When will Saudi Arabia’s new financing plan take effect?

The 2026 borrowing plan is already operational, with the Ministry of Finance having secured approximately $16 billion in advance funding during 2025. The diversified financing strategy—including bonds, sukuk, loans, project finance, and export credit arrangements—deploys throughout the fiscal year based on specific project needs and market conditions.

Q: How does Saudi Arabia’s borrowing compare to other Gulf nations?

Saudi Arabia’s scale dwarfs other GCC countries given its massive Vision 2030 transformation scope. While the Kingdom’s total borrowing amounts are larger, its debt-to-GDP ratio remains lower than many developed economies. Regional peers like UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait maintain robust credit ratings with different financing strategies reflecting their unique economic profiles and development priorities.

Key Takeaways for Tourism Stakeholders

💡 Key Insight #1: Saudi Arabia’s $58 billion financing plan represents strategic optimization rather than retreat, maintaining Vision 2030 momentum while ensuring fiscal sustainability amid challenging oil markets.

💡 Key Insight #2: Tourism mega-projects continue advancing through diversified financing structures including project finance, export credit arrangements, and Public Investment Fund mechanisms beyond traditional sovereign bonds.

💡 Key Insight #3: The measured approach creates opportunities for private investors as the Kingdom increasingly seeks capital partnerships for tourism infrastructure and hospitality developments.

💡 Key Insight #4: International financial institutions including the IMF, World Bank, and major credit rating agencies maintain confidence in Saudi Arabia’s economic trajectory and reform progress despite near-term fiscal adjustments.