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Eurozone Issuers Turn to Non-Euro Debt in Hunt for New Investors

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The European Central Bank bought its last net tranche of eurozone government bonds in July 2022. What followed was, in some respects, an orderly handover: private investors stepped in, yields adjusted, and the mechanical shock of the ECB’s withdrawal was absorbed without the crisis many had feared. Yet the long-run consequences of that exit are still propagating through the architecture of European capital markets. By the first quarter of 2025, the Eurosystem held just 25% of all euro-area sovereign bonds — down from a peak of 33% as recently as late 2022. The gap the ECB left behind has to be filled by someone else. Increasingly, eurozone issuers are deciding to go and find those buyers directly, on their terms, in their currencies.

A Structural Shift, Not a Tactical Detour

The push into non-euro issuance isn’t happening in isolation. It unfolds against a backdrop of seismic, slow-moving change in who owns fixed-income assets globally. The OECD’s Global Debt Report 2026 puts the combined government and corporate bond market at roughly $78 trillion, with euro-area issuers accounting for 34% of that total — split almost evenly between sovereign and corporate paper. Within that vast pool, the composition of buyers has shifted decisively. Central banks, the dominant marginal purchaser of the past decade, have retreated. In the euro area specifically, the Eurosystem’s quantitative tightening since mid-2022 has compelled the private sector to absorb an estimated €430 billion of German government bonds alone — a recalibration with no peacetime precedent.

Layered on top is a geopolitical repricing. The ECB’s Financial Stability Review for November 2025 noted that euro-area non-bank financial institutions still carry heavy concentrations in US dollar assets, even as investors globally began rotating away from US Treasuries following Washington’s tariff turbulence earlier that year. That asymmetry — of European savings lodged in dollar assets while European borrowers need to attract dollar investors — defines the precise opportunity that multi-currency issuance is designed to exploit.

1 — The Anatomy of Eurozone Non-Euro Bond Issuance

Eurozone non-euro bond issuance has accelerated sharply across the sovereign, financial, and corporate segments throughout 2025. Eleven European borrowers — among them Orange SA, CaixaBank SA, and Raiffeisen Bank International AG — raised an aggregate $20.45 billion in US dollar-denominated offerings through early November 2025, according to Akin Gump’s annual bond market review. That figure captures only named issuers in the senior unsecured segment; it excludes covered bonds, AT1 capital instruments, and private placements, which tell a similar story. These are not crisis-driven deals priced out of necessity. They’re strategic, roadshow-backed transactions designed to cultivate investors who don’t naturally trade in euros.

The pull factors are equally important as the push. Across the wider emerging-market universe — a useful benchmark for global appetite shifts — EM sovereign issuance reached nearly $200 billion in the first nine months of 2025, the highest level for that period on record, with nearly half of new hard-currency bonds denominated in non-dollar currencies. Euro-denominated emerging-market bonds reached 30% of new issuance on a trailing 12-month basis, up from around half that share two years earlier. Eurozone issuers are, in a sense, rowing into a current that’s already moving.

The mechanics behind the trade are straightforward. Investors who hold mandates anchored to US dollars or sterling face real friction when trying to acquire a German corporate bond priced in euros — they must take on currency risk or arrange their own hedges. By issuing in dollars or sterling, the eurozone borrower eliminates that friction, bringing the bond to the investor rather than waiting for the investor to come to the bond. The European Stability Mechanism recognized this logic as early as 2017, when it established its US dollar issuance programme for precisely this reason: access to a wider investor base whose mandates wouldn’t otherwise reach euro-denominated paper.

Cross-currency economics are, for now, highly accommodating. A Reuters analysis from February 2025 found that companies converting dollar interest payments into euro payments through cross-currency swaps could shave nearly 200 basis points off their all-in funding costs. That differential reflects the gap between ECB and Federal Reserve rate trajectories: the ECB has eased steadily while the Fed held, generating a basis that eurozone borrowers can effectively arbitrage.

2 — The Structural Logic: Why Are Eurozone Issuers Issuing Bonds in US Dollars?

European borrowers are turning to dollar, sterling, and yen debt primarily to access investors whose mandates limit or preclude direct holdings of euro-denominated paper. With the ECB’s Eurosystem reduced from 33% to 25% of euro sovereign outstanding since 2022, issuers face a structurally wider distribution task. By offering bonds in dollars or sterling, they bring the credit to where those investors already operate — expanding the buyer pool without requiring cross-currency hedging on the investor’s side.

The structural interpretation cuts deeper than opportunistic arbitrage. During the decade of ECB quantitative easing, foreign investors’ share of euro-area sovereign bonds fell from around 37% in 2015 to just 21% by mid-2022, as the Eurosystem crowded them out. That contraction wasn’t benign. It represents a generation of US pension funds, UK insurers, and Asian sovereign wealth vehicles that drifted away from European credit during the years of sub-zero yields — and that now need to be structurally accommodated, not merely re-invited.

The post-QE investor landscape is qualitatively different from its predecessor. The OECD’s analysis documents a clear shift toward more price-sensitive private-sector investors as central banks withdraw, and warns explicitly that yields may need to remain structurally higher to sustain demand from those investors in countries where fiscal trajectories appear stretched. That warning has particular force for higher-debt eurozone sovereigns — and it’s why, even from Rome or Lisbon, the logic of non-euro issuance as a demand-cultivation tool is increasingly worth entertaining.

Yet there’s a complicating wrinkle. The same geopolitical disruptions driving investors globally to reassess US asset concentrations are also creating natural demand for euro-denominated paper. Since April 2025, net purchases of euro-area government bonds by international investors have been consistently strong. In that single month, foreign investors bought €26 billion in euro-area government bonds while simultaneously selling €56 billion of US Treasuries. If euro bonds are already in demand, why issue in dollars?

The picture is more complicated than the aggregate flows suggest. That foreign buying is heavily concentrated in German, French, Italian, and Spanish sovereign benchmarks — securities that trade on screens globally and require no proprietary infrastructure to settle. European bank capital instruments, sub-investment-grade corporate credit, and mid-tier sovereign names still struggle to clear the screens of US fund managers who don’t routinely run euro-denominated book exposure. Multi-currency issuance solves precisely that problem.

3 — Implications and Second-Order Effects

The consequences extend well beyond the bond desk. If eurozone issuers successfully cultivate a durable non-euro investor base, they reduce their structural dependence on any single policy regime — specifically, whether the ECB resumes asset purchases during the next downturn. That’s a form of funding sovereignty that finance ministers and corporate treasurers alike have good reason to value.

The ESM’s December 2025 market commentary put this directly: cumulative euro-denominated issuance outside the euro area exceeded €1 trillion in 2025, with countries including China, Chile, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia choosing the euro for their sovereign bonds. “Diversification is the name of the game,” the ESM wrote. “These issuers want to open new horizons and tap new investors.” The logic applies with equal force in reverse — eurozone borrowers issuing in dollar and sterling are playing the same game, from the other side of the currency table.

Still, multi-currency issuance creates new vulnerabilities. A eurozone corporate that issues in dollars takes on foreign-currency liability exposure. If the hedge is imperfect, or if cross-currency swap markets seize up during a stress episode — as they did, briefly, in March 2020 — the mismatch can become damaging quickly. Raiffeisen Bank International, one of the eleven European borrowers that tapped the dollar market in 2025, operates in a complex regulatory environment across Eastern and Central Europe; its dollar issuance adds funding flexibility, but also another dimension of currency risk management that its euro-only peers don’t carry. Verizon, going the other direction, closed a £1 billion sterling note alongside a €2.25 billion Eurobond in November 2025 — a dual-tranche structure that captures two demand pools but multiplies hedging complexity on both sides.

For the ECB, the implications are subtler but real. A eurozone bond market reliant on globally dispersed, price-sensitive private investors will structurally exhibit more volatility than one where a single policy-driven buyer dominated the clearing mechanism. The ECB’s Financial Stability Review warned that “sudden reversals of holdings — in response to global economic or political shocks — could have destabilising effects on sovereign bond markets.” Cultivating non-euro investors diversifies demand; it also multiplies the number of actors who might exit simultaneously under stress. That’s a trade-off central bankers in Frankfurt understand, and that weighs on how aggressively they welcome the trend in official communications.

The OECD’s analysis reinforces this concern. It notes that structural shifts away from defined-benefit to defined-contribution pension arrangements are reducing institutional demand for long-duration sovereign bonds more broadly, regardless of currency denomination. Issuer flexibility may be rising while structural anchor demand is falling — a combination that pushes funding costs higher over the medium term, in both euros and in any other currency eurozone borrowers choose.

4 — The Counterargument: Is Non-Euro Issuance Actually Necessary?

Not everyone is persuaded that the non-euro turn is strategically necessary, sustainable, or wise for European issuers to pursue at scale.

The alternative view is grounded in supply and demand data that looks, from the euro side, genuinely encouraging. Euro-denominated corporate bonds now exceed €3.2 trillion in outstanding value across more than 3,700 issuers, according to Bloomberg data cited by BNY in September 2025. In 2025, euro corporate bond funds attracted net inflows of €19.2 billion, making the category one of fixed income’s best-performing segments. That’s not a market starved of buyers. The spread compression throughout the year — peripheral sovereign spreads tightening, investment-grade credit trading tight — tells the same story: money is flowing into euro assets, not out of them.

From an execution standpoint, dollar or sterling issuance adds real complexity. US Securities and Exchange Commission registration requirements for publicly offered dollar bonds generate significant legal cost and disclosure burden. Smaller eurozone issuers — particularly those below investment-grade or without established international investor relations programmes — may find that the incremental demand from dollar investors doesn’t justify those costs. A single-currency, well-syndicated euro deal can still clear effectively when the credit is familiar and the roadshow thorough.

There is also a longer structural concern. The same geopolitical fragmentation driving non-euro issuance today could, in a different scenario, make dollar-denominated European bonds harder to place. The OECD warns explicitly that “geopolitical tensions can have an outsized impact on demand from foreign investors” and describes global financial fragmentation risk as “an important concern for issuers.” A eurozone bank that builds a structural dollar investor base assumes that US investors will remain willing and able counterparties through whatever political environment follows. That assumption deserves scrutiny.

The New Normal in European Debt Markets

The eurozone’s search for new investors — in new currencies — is, fundamentally, a reckoning with a decade of monetary exceptionalism. When the ECB was buying everything, issuers didn’t need to think hard about who else might want their bonds, or in what form. Now they do.

What’s striking is the convergence at work. As global investors reassess US assets and rotate toward Europe, European borrowers are simultaneously rotating into dollar and sterling markets to capture investors before they fully discover the euro denominated product on offer. It’s a two-way traffic jam at a major intersection — everyone crossing in opposite directions, each convinced they’re moving toward better returns.

Whether the non-euro turn by eurozone issuers proves durable will depend on how long the interest-rate differential between the US and the eurozone persists, and on whether the geopolitical triggers driving investor rotation toward European assets moderate or intensify. Either way, the market infrastructure — the legal frameworks, the dealer networks, the hedging conventions — is being built now.

The ECB’s exit from bond markets was always going to force a renegotiation of who funds Europe. That renegotiation is visibly underway. It turns out the terms are written, in part, in other people’s currencies.


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Analysis

Malaysia GDP Growth vs Stock Market: The 2026 Disconnect

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Malaysia posted its biggest trade surplus on record and second-quarter GDP growth of 5.8% in 2026, yet its stock market has stubbornly refused to rally — a disconnect that is puzzling investors even as the country climbs global competitiveness rankings and hosts record investor turnout at its largest retail investing event.

Record Growth Meets a Muted Market

Malaysia’s economy expanded 5.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, underpinning what former senior investment banker Ian Yoong Kah Yin describes as one of the most competitive economies globally, buoyed by the country’s largest-ever trade surplus, according to reporting in The Star. Yet with the exception of the semiconductor and plantation sectors, Yoong notes that many shares on Bursa Malaysia remain undervalued relative to that underlying strength — a gap he summarised memorably: “It’s like we held a party and no one came.”

The disconnect comes even as Hong Leong Investment Bank upgraded Malaysia’s full-year 2026 growth forecast to 4.7% from 4.5%, citing stronger-than-expected performance in the electrical and electronics sector alongside resilient domestic demand, according to BusinessToday. Household loans grew 5.2% year-on-year and credit card spending rose 10.2%, signalling that consumer demand remains a genuine pillar of growth rather than a statistical artefact of export strength alone.

A Competitiveness Ranking Jump — and a Retail Investing Boom

Malaysia’s underlying reform story has been validated externally. The country climbed eight places to rank 15th among 70 economies in the 2026 IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, its best showing in recent years, following an 11-place jump the year before, according to The Star. Economists attribute the climb to policy reforms improving government and business efficiency, streamlined investment approvals, accelerated digitalisation, and stronger fiscal management.

Retail investor enthusiasm, meanwhile, appears robust even if institutional capital has been slower to follow. INVEST Fair 2026, Malaysia’s largest retail investment event, drew an expected 20,000 visitors across more than 70 hours of programming at Kuala Lumpur’s Mid Valley Exhibition Centre in July, according to event coverage on TradingView. Separately, a survey of more than 3,500 active users by digital wealth platform Versa found that 70% of respondents would prioritise investing over debt repayment or emergency savings if they received a sudden windfall, according to The Star — evidence of a pronounced retail “investment reflex” even amid broader questions about household financial resilience.

Fixed Income Is Where the Real Money Is Flowing

While equities lag, Malaysia’s fixed income market tells a different story. Employees Provident Fund chief investment officer Mohamad Hafiz Kassim told the Sasana Symposium 2026 that Malaysia is “punching above its weight” on global fixed income indexes, drawing outsized capital allocation given interest rate and yield differentials between Malaysian Government Securities and US Treasuries — a dynamic occurring even as the ringgit has remained notably stable, according to The Star. Speakers at the same event pointed to the broader global shift toward passive investing as a structural tailwind Malaysia is well-positioned to capture with continued policy follow-through.

What Explains the Equity Gap

Analysts point to several possible explanations for the growth-market disconnect: persistent foreign investor caution tied to regional and Middle East-driven geopolitical risk, a valuation overhang from prior years, and sector concentration that leaves broad indices under-exposed to the semiconductor and technology names actually capturing AI-linked investment flows. Whatever the cause, the gap represents either an opportunity for value-focused investors or a warning sign that Malaysia’s headline growth figures are not yet translating into corporate earnings momentum broad enough to move the market.

What to Watch

The second half of 2026 will test whether Malaysia’s fixed income strength and competitiveness gains eventually pull equity valuations upward, or whether the stock market’s caution proves to be the more accurate signal about underlying corporate health. Continued data centre and semiconductor investment, alongside any further IMD-style competitiveness validation, will be key catalysts to track.


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Analysis

Singapore MAS Tightens Policy as GDP Growth Hits 5.7%

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The Monetary Authority of Singapore nudged its exchange-rate-based policy stance slightly tighter in its July review, a modest but notable shift after the city-state’s economy grew a stronger-than-expected 5.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, powered by an AI-driven manufacturing boom that is increasingly reshaping the country’s growth mix.

Growth Beats Expectations Again

Singapore’s economy expanded 5.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry released 14 July, moderating only slightly from an upwardly revised 6.3% in the first quarter, according to MAS’s own July policy statement. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, GDP rose 1.1%, continuing an unbroken run of above-trend expansion. Manufacturing has been the standout performer, posting 12.2% year-on-year growth in the second quarter — up from 8.0% in the first — driven by the electronics and precision engineering clusters riding the global AI capital expenditure wave, according to data reported by Indiplomacy.

The strength has prompted a wave of forecast upgrades. UOB Global Economics and Markets Research lifted its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4%, while S&P Global Market Intelligence matched that upgrade, and Nomura flagged upside risk to its own 4.6% forecast, according to Xinhua — all comfortably above the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s official 2.0–4.0% guidance range.

MAS Leans Against Rising Core Inflation

The growth surprise has not been without cost. MAS Core Inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transport costs, rose to 1.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, up from 1.2% in the January–February period before the Middle East conflict began, according to the central bank’s own policy statement. Fuel-price surges have pushed up point-to-point transport and non-cooked food inflation, while retail goods prices have climbed on higher import costs and a tobacco tax increase.

In response, MAS increased the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band slightly in its July review — a modest tightening move that builds on an April 2026 tightening step, according to the bank’s Macroeconomic Review. Singapore uses its exchange rate, rather than interest rates, as its primary monetary policy tool, managing the currency’s path within an undisclosed band against a basket of trading partner currencies.

The Positive Output Gap Is Widening

Perhaps the most telling technical signal in MAS’s July statement is its acknowledgment that Singapore’s positive output gap — the extent to which the economy is running above its estimated potential — is now forecast to widen further in 2026, rather than narrow as previously expected. That reflects both the stronger-than-anticipated first-half growth data and MAS’s expectation that GDP will be sustained at elevated levels near-term, powered by continued AI-related capital expenditure, a robust construction pipeline, and steady credit-driven expansion in the financial sector.

Singapore’s central bank, MAS, slightly tightened its S$NEER exchange-rate policy band in July 2026 after GDP grew 5.7% year-on-year in Q2, driven by AI-linked manufacturing growth of 12.2%. Core inflation rose to 1.5%, prompting the modest policy shift even as growth forecasts were upgraded to as high as 4.8%.

Why This Matters Beyond Singapore

As a bellwether for Asian trade and technology cycles, Singapore’s data offers one of the clearest real-time signals of how durable the global AI infrastructure buildout has become, even as broader Asian growth forecasts have been trimmed elsewhere in the region due to Middle East-driven energy costs. For global investors, the combination of resilient growth and rising core inflation puts MAS in a position other regional central banks may soon face: managing an AI-driven boom that is proving inflationary in ways that are only loosely connected to traditional demand-side overheating.

What to Watch

MAS’s next scheduled policy review will be closely watched for whether the central bank continues its gradual tightening path or judges that easing global energy costs — following the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — have done enough of the disinflationary work on their own. Singapore’s full second-quarter economic survey, due after the advance estimate, will offer a fuller sectoral breakdown of where the AI-driven strength is concentrated.


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Analysis

Indonesia Financial Hub 2026: Can It Rival Singapore, Dubai?

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Indonesia has taken its first concrete legislative step toward building a financial centre intended to compete with Singapore, Hong Kong, and Dubai, as President Prabowo Subianto pushes an ambitious plan to draw foreign capital into Southeast Asia’s largest economy and lift growth toward 8% by the end of his term in 2029.

Parliament Passes Enabling Legislation

Indonesia’s parliament passed the enabling legislation for the new financial hub, laying its legal foundation, according to reporting by the South China Morning Post. The milestone marks the most tangible progress yet on a project analysts say is projected to attract billions of dollars in investment — though they caution that crucial details on tax incentives, investor eligibility requirements, and regulatory safeguards still need to be finalised before the centre can credibly compete with established regional players.

The ambition is unmistakable: a financial centre capable of pulling capital away from Singapore’s deep, established markets, Hong Kong’s China-gateway status, and Dubai’s fast-growing wealth-management ecosystem is a tall order, and observers note that persuading global institutional investors to relocate meaningful operations to a new jurisdiction is a multi-year undertaking that has only just begun in earnest.

Indonesia’s parliament passed enabling legislation in July 2026 for a new financial hub designed to rival Singapore, Hong Kong, and Dubai, as President Prabowo Subianto targets 8% GDP growth by 2029. Singapore remains Indonesia’s top foreign investor at $8.8 billion in H1 2026, ahead of Hong Kong and China.

A Broader Investment Story Already Taking Shape

The financial-hub push arrives alongside signs that Indonesia is already deepening its role as a regional investment destination. Singapore remained Indonesia’s largest foreign investor in the first half of 2026, contributing $8.8 billion, followed by Hong Kong at $7.8 billion, China at $3.9 billion, Japan at $1.9 billion, and the United States at $1.7 billion, according to investment data reported by the New Straits Times. Malaysia ranked fifth, contributing $700 million in the second quarter alone, as Indonesia’s total realised investment reached Rp511.8 trillion.

Indonesian Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani has pointed to regulatory reform — including Government Regulation No. 28, introduced last October, which he said has provided greater licensing certainty — as a key driver of investor interest, while explicitly acknowledging that neighbouring economies are reforming in parallel, requiring Indonesia to keep pace.

Growth Outlook Holds Steady Amid Regional Headwinds

The financial-hub push comes as Indonesia’s broader macroeconomic backdrop remains comparatively resilient. The Asian Development Bank’s July 2026 outlook kept Indonesia’s growth forecast unchanged at 5.2% for both 2026 and 2027, even as the bank lowered its overall developing Asia and Pacific growth projection to 4.9% amid Middle East-driven energy cost pressures. That stability stands in contrast to Malaysia, whose 2026 growth forecast was revised only marginally higher to 2%, according to the same ADB report — even as Maybank Investment Banking Group separately upgraded its own Malaysia forecast more aggressively, to 4.9%, citing strong regional investor interest at July’s Invest ASEAN conference in Singapore, which drew 200 institutional investors managing a combined $23 trillion in assets.

Rice Diplomacy as a Parallel Economic Thread

Indonesia’s regional economic engagement extends beyond high finance. State logistics agency Bulog is continuing negotiations with Malaysia and Singapore over proposed rice export deals, with pricing and commercial terms still under discussion as of mid-July, according to The Star. The talks illustrate the breadth of Indonesia’s economic diplomacy push across ASEAN even as its flagship financial-hub ambitions dominate headlines.

What It Means for Global Investors

For asset managers and multinationals weighing where to locate Southeast Asian operations, Indonesia’s financial-hub legislation is a signal of intent rather than an immediate call to relocate. The real test will come as tax-incentive structures, licensing rules, and investor-protection frameworks are finalised over the coming months — details that will determine whether Jakarta can credibly compete with Singapore’s decades-long regulatory head start, or whether the hub instead becomes a complementary gateway focused on domestic Indonesian capital markets and Belt-and-Road-adjacent regional flows.


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