Analysis
Eurozone Issuers Turn to Non-Euro Debt in Hunt for New Investors
The European Central Bank bought its last net tranche of eurozone government bonds in July 2022. What followed was, in some respects, an orderly handover: private investors stepped in, yields adjusted, and the mechanical shock of the ECB’s withdrawal was absorbed without the crisis many had feared. Yet the long-run consequences of that exit are still propagating through the architecture of European capital markets. By the first quarter of 2025, the Eurosystem held just 25% of all euro-area sovereign bonds — down from a peak of 33% as recently as late 2022. The gap the ECB left behind has to be filled by someone else. Increasingly, eurozone issuers are deciding to go and find those buyers directly, on their terms, in their currencies.
A Structural Shift, Not a Tactical Detour
The push into non-euro issuance isn’t happening in isolation. It unfolds against a backdrop of seismic, slow-moving change in who owns fixed-income assets globally. The OECD’s Global Debt Report 2026 puts the combined government and corporate bond market at roughly $78 trillion, with euro-area issuers accounting for 34% of that total — split almost evenly between sovereign and corporate paper. Within that vast pool, the composition of buyers has shifted decisively. Central banks, the dominant marginal purchaser of the past decade, have retreated. In the euro area specifically, the Eurosystem’s quantitative tightening since mid-2022 has compelled the private sector to absorb an estimated €430 billion of German government bonds alone — a recalibration with no peacetime precedent.
Layered on top is a geopolitical repricing. The ECB’s Financial Stability Review for November 2025 noted that euro-area non-bank financial institutions still carry heavy concentrations in US dollar assets, even as investors globally began rotating away from US Treasuries following Washington’s tariff turbulence earlier that year. That asymmetry — of European savings lodged in dollar assets while European borrowers need to attract dollar investors — defines the precise opportunity that multi-currency issuance is designed to exploit.
1 — The Anatomy of Eurozone Non-Euro Bond Issuance
Eurozone non-euro bond issuance has accelerated sharply across the sovereign, financial, and corporate segments throughout 2025. Eleven European borrowers — among them Orange SA, CaixaBank SA, and Raiffeisen Bank International AG — raised an aggregate $20.45 billion in US dollar-denominated offerings through early November 2025, according to Akin Gump’s annual bond market review. That figure captures only named issuers in the senior unsecured segment; it excludes covered bonds, AT1 capital instruments, and private placements, which tell a similar story. These are not crisis-driven deals priced out of necessity. They’re strategic, roadshow-backed transactions designed to cultivate investors who don’t naturally trade in euros.
The pull factors are equally important as the push. Across the wider emerging-market universe — a useful benchmark for global appetite shifts — EM sovereign issuance reached nearly $200 billion in the first nine months of 2025, the highest level for that period on record, with nearly half of new hard-currency bonds denominated in non-dollar currencies. Euro-denominated emerging-market bonds reached 30% of new issuance on a trailing 12-month basis, up from around half that share two years earlier. Eurozone issuers are, in a sense, rowing into a current that’s already moving.
The mechanics behind the trade are straightforward. Investors who hold mandates anchored to US dollars or sterling face real friction when trying to acquire a German corporate bond priced in euros — they must take on currency risk or arrange their own hedges. By issuing in dollars or sterling, the eurozone borrower eliminates that friction, bringing the bond to the investor rather than waiting for the investor to come to the bond. The European Stability Mechanism recognized this logic as early as 2017, when it established its US dollar issuance programme for precisely this reason: access to a wider investor base whose mandates wouldn’t otherwise reach euro-denominated paper.
Cross-currency economics are, for now, highly accommodating. A Reuters analysis from February 2025 found that companies converting dollar interest payments into euro payments through cross-currency swaps could shave nearly 200 basis points off their all-in funding costs. That differential reflects the gap between ECB and Federal Reserve rate trajectories: the ECB has eased steadily while the Fed held, generating a basis that eurozone borrowers can effectively arbitrage.
2 — The Structural Logic: Why Are Eurozone Issuers Issuing Bonds in US Dollars?
European borrowers are turning to dollar, sterling, and yen debt primarily to access investors whose mandates limit or preclude direct holdings of euro-denominated paper. With the ECB’s Eurosystem reduced from 33% to 25% of euro sovereign outstanding since 2022, issuers face a structurally wider distribution task. By offering bonds in dollars or sterling, they bring the credit to where those investors already operate — expanding the buyer pool without requiring cross-currency hedging on the investor’s side.
The structural interpretation cuts deeper than opportunistic arbitrage. During the decade of ECB quantitative easing, foreign investors’ share of euro-area sovereign bonds fell from around 37% in 2015 to just 21% by mid-2022, as the Eurosystem crowded them out. That contraction wasn’t benign. It represents a generation of US pension funds, UK insurers, and Asian sovereign wealth vehicles that drifted away from European credit during the years of sub-zero yields — and that now need to be structurally accommodated, not merely re-invited.
The post-QE investor landscape is qualitatively different from its predecessor. The OECD’s analysis documents a clear shift toward more price-sensitive private-sector investors as central banks withdraw, and warns explicitly that yields may need to remain structurally higher to sustain demand from those investors in countries where fiscal trajectories appear stretched. That warning has particular force for higher-debt eurozone sovereigns — and it’s why, even from Rome or Lisbon, the logic of non-euro issuance as a demand-cultivation tool is increasingly worth entertaining.
Yet there’s a complicating wrinkle. The same geopolitical disruptions driving investors globally to reassess US asset concentrations are also creating natural demand for euro-denominated paper. Since April 2025, net purchases of euro-area government bonds by international investors have been consistently strong. In that single month, foreign investors bought €26 billion in euro-area government bonds while simultaneously selling €56 billion of US Treasuries. If euro bonds are already in demand, why issue in dollars?
The picture is more complicated than the aggregate flows suggest. That foreign buying is heavily concentrated in German, French, Italian, and Spanish sovereign benchmarks — securities that trade on screens globally and require no proprietary infrastructure to settle. European bank capital instruments, sub-investment-grade corporate credit, and mid-tier sovereign names still struggle to clear the screens of US fund managers who don’t routinely run euro-denominated book exposure. Multi-currency issuance solves precisely that problem.
3 — Implications and Second-Order Effects
The consequences extend well beyond the bond desk. If eurozone issuers successfully cultivate a durable non-euro investor base, they reduce their structural dependence on any single policy regime — specifically, whether the ECB resumes asset purchases during the next downturn. That’s a form of funding sovereignty that finance ministers and corporate treasurers alike have good reason to value.
The ESM’s December 2025 market commentary put this directly: cumulative euro-denominated issuance outside the euro area exceeded €1 trillion in 2025, with countries including China, Chile, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia choosing the euro for their sovereign bonds. “Diversification is the name of the game,” the ESM wrote. “These issuers want to open new horizons and tap new investors.” The logic applies with equal force in reverse — eurozone borrowers issuing in dollar and sterling are playing the same game, from the other side of the currency table.
Still, multi-currency issuance creates new vulnerabilities. A eurozone corporate that issues in dollars takes on foreign-currency liability exposure. If the hedge is imperfect, or if cross-currency swap markets seize up during a stress episode — as they did, briefly, in March 2020 — the mismatch can become damaging quickly. Raiffeisen Bank International, one of the eleven European borrowers that tapped the dollar market in 2025, operates in a complex regulatory environment across Eastern and Central Europe; its dollar issuance adds funding flexibility, but also another dimension of currency risk management that its euro-only peers don’t carry. Verizon, going the other direction, closed a £1 billion sterling note alongside a €2.25 billion Eurobond in November 2025 — a dual-tranche structure that captures two demand pools but multiplies hedging complexity on both sides.
For the ECB, the implications are subtler but real. A eurozone bond market reliant on globally dispersed, price-sensitive private investors will structurally exhibit more volatility than one where a single policy-driven buyer dominated the clearing mechanism. The ECB’s Financial Stability Review warned that “sudden reversals of holdings — in response to global economic or political shocks — could have destabilising effects on sovereign bond markets.” Cultivating non-euro investors diversifies demand; it also multiplies the number of actors who might exit simultaneously under stress. That’s a trade-off central bankers in Frankfurt understand, and that weighs on how aggressively they welcome the trend in official communications.
The OECD’s analysis reinforces this concern. It notes that structural shifts away from defined-benefit to defined-contribution pension arrangements are reducing institutional demand for long-duration sovereign bonds more broadly, regardless of currency denomination. Issuer flexibility may be rising while structural anchor demand is falling — a combination that pushes funding costs higher over the medium term, in both euros and in any other currency eurozone borrowers choose.
4 — The Counterargument: Is Non-Euro Issuance Actually Necessary?
Not everyone is persuaded that the non-euro turn is strategically necessary, sustainable, or wise for European issuers to pursue at scale.
The alternative view is grounded in supply and demand data that looks, from the euro side, genuinely encouraging. Euro-denominated corporate bonds now exceed €3.2 trillion in outstanding value across more than 3,700 issuers, according to Bloomberg data cited by BNY in September 2025. In 2025, euro corporate bond funds attracted net inflows of €19.2 billion, making the category one of fixed income’s best-performing segments. That’s not a market starved of buyers. The spread compression throughout the year — peripheral sovereign spreads tightening, investment-grade credit trading tight — tells the same story: money is flowing into euro assets, not out of them.
From an execution standpoint, dollar or sterling issuance adds real complexity. US Securities and Exchange Commission registration requirements for publicly offered dollar bonds generate significant legal cost and disclosure burden. Smaller eurozone issuers — particularly those below investment-grade or without established international investor relations programmes — may find that the incremental demand from dollar investors doesn’t justify those costs. A single-currency, well-syndicated euro deal can still clear effectively when the credit is familiar and the roadshow thorough.
There is also a longer structural concern. The same geopolitical fragmentation driving non-euro issuance today could, in a different scenario, make dollar-denominated European bonds harder to place. The OECD warns explicitly that “geopolitical tensions can have an outsized impact on demand from foreign investors” and describes global financial fragmentation risk as “an important concern for issuers.” A eurozone bank that builds a structural dollar investor base assumes that US investors will remain willing and able counterparties through whatever political environment follows. That assumption deserves scrutiny.
The New Normal in European Debt Markets
The eurozone’s search for new investors — in new currencies — is, fundamentally, a reckoning with a decade of monetary exceptionalism. When the ECB was buying everything, issuers didn’t need to think hard about who else might want their bonds, or in what form. Now they do.
What’s striking is the convergence at work. As global investors reassess US assets and rotate toward Europe, European borrowers are simultaneously rotating into dollar and sterling markets to capture investors before they fully discover the euro denominated product on offer. It’s a two-way traffic jam at a major intersection — everyone crossing in opposite directions, each convinced they’re moving toward better returns.
Whether the non-euro turn by eurozone issuers proves durable will depend on how long the interest-rate differential between the US and the eurozone persists, and on whether the geopolitical triggers driving investor rotation toward European assets moderate or intensify. Either way, the market infrastructure — the legal frameworks, the dealer networks, the hedging conventions — is being built now.
The ECB’s exit from bond markets was always going to force a renegotiation of who funds Europe. That renegotiation is visibly underway. It turns out the terms are written, in part, in other people’s currencies.
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Analysis
China Economy 2026: Export Growth Masks Manufacturing Overcapacity
China’s exports have been the good-news story in an otherwise mixed economic picture. They’re not just holding up; through the first four months of 2026 they were running about 14% to 15% above the same period a year earlier, according to figures cited by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission and Vanguard’s economic outlook. That’s the kind of number that would normally signal a healthy economy. The complication is what’s happening underneath it.
A growth model showing its age
Manufacturing capacity utilization fell to 73.9% in early 2026 — near a decade low outside of the pandemic shutdowns, per the Commission’s bulletin. That’s the tell. China is producing and shipping more, but a growing share of its industrial base is running under capacity, which points to a structural mismatch: the country’s manufacturing engine has outgrown both its domestic consumption and, increasingly, what the rest of the world is willing to absorb without pushback.
Goldman Sachs Research, in a report cited by Goldman Sachs’ own analysis, forecasts 4.8% real GDP growth for 2026 — above consensus expectations of 4.5% — driven substantially by continued export strength and a softening drag from the property downturn. But that same report flags the labor market as a genuine weak spot: hiring, measured across a weighted average of PMI employment sub-indexes, is at its most depressed level in a decade outside Covid, and urban nominal wage growth slowed to just 3.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025.
Why Beijing isn’t reaching for stimulus
Given the export strength, one might expect policymakers to feel less urgency about consumption-side stimulus. That’s roughly what’s happening — and it’s a deliberate choice, not an oversight. Xi Jinping’s government remains committed to dominating high-value manufacturing, which means comprehensive fiscal stimulus aimed at consumers remains unlikely even as domestic demand stays soft, according to the Commission’s bulletin.
The People’s Bank of China is expected to hold its policy rate steady through the rest of the year, preferring targeted structural tools over a broad-based rate cut, per Vanguard’s forecast. That’s a notably cautious stance given how weak the property sector remains — property investment indicators are down 50% to 80% from their 2020–21 peaks, and a “meaningful domestic-demand turnaround remains elusive,” in Vanguard’s own words.
The regulatory push to keep capital at home
Two moves by Chinese regulators in mid-2026 point to where Beijing’s real priority sits: keeping household savings and private capital funneled toward domestic industrial policy rather than flowing overseas. New rules taking effect July 1 restrict outbound investment that could be used to export restricted technology or expertise under the guise of ordinary capital flows, with violations carrying fines, visa restrictions and industry blacklisting, according to the Commission’s bulletin. The regulations follow Beijing’s move to block the founders of AI firm Manus from completing a sale to Meta, even after the company had relocated its headquarters from China to Singapore — a signal that Beijing is willing to reach across borders to keep promising tech assets tethered to domestic or Hong Kong listings.
The currency and trade angle
Goldman’s team makes an out-of-consensus call worth flagging: it expects China’s current account surplus to rise to 4.2% of GDP in 2026, up from 3.6% in 2025, while the broader analyst consensus surveyed by Bloomberg expects a decline to 2.5%. The divergence comes down to export resilience — falling export prices are making Chinese goods more competitive even as the yuan is expected to appreciate slightly, with export-price inflation in dollar terms forecast to turn positive, rising to 0.7% from -2.7% the prior year.
The bottom line
China’s economy in 2026 is a study in contrasts: robust headline export growth sitting on top of underutilized factories, a weak labor market, and a property sector still in its fifth year of decline. The World Bank’s own baseline, published in its country program materials, projects growth moderating toward 4.0% by 2026 — a more conservative read than Goldman’s. Either way, the consensus across forecasters is the same: exports are carrying more of China’s growth than is healthy for the long run, and Beijing’s policy choices this year suggest it’s betting on technological dominance to eventually solve the demand problem, rather than opening the stimulus taps to solve it directly.
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Analysis
Pakistan Circular Debt Crisis 2026: IMF Deadline Missed, Rs 3.44 Trillion
There’s a number that keeps showing up in every conversation about Pakistan’s economy, and it keeps getting bigger: circular debt. As of early July 2026, the gas sector’s share of that debt alone has topped Rs 3.44 trillion, and Islamabad has missed a deadline the IMF set for tariff reforms meant to arrest the slide, according to Dawn.
What circular debt actually is, and why it won’t go away
Circular debt is the chain of unpaid obligations that builds up when the price consumers pay for electricity or gas doesn’t cover what it actually costs to produce and deliver it. Someone in the chain — a power producer, a gas utility, a state-owned enterprise — ends up carrying an IOU, and that IOU gets passed down the line. Earlier this year, IMF officials pressed Pakistan on exactly this dynamic, questioning the government’s plan to zero out gas-sector circular debt, according to Aaj English. At the time, officials said around Rs 150 billion remained payable to companies including Oil and Gas Development Company Limited and Pakistan Petroleum Limited.
Islamabad’s proposed fix included a Rs 5-per-unit levy on gas, dividends from state-owned companies redirected toward debt reduction, and the sale of 35 LNG cargoes annually on the international market. The IMF, per that same reporting, raised pointed questions about whether the plan was actually viable.
The commitments Pakistan has already made
Under its Extended Fund Facility, Pakistan has committed to capping circular debt growth at Rs 300 billion for FY2027 and cutting power-sector subsidies from 0.7% of GDP to 0.6%, according to details reported by ProPakistani. The government has also shifted Nepra’s annual tariff-rebasing cycle from July to January, and Ogra now revises gas tariffs twice a year instead of once.
Structurally, some of this is working. The IMF’s own review in May 2026 credited Pakistan with a primary fiscal surplus of 1.6% of GDP for FY26, broadly in line with program targets, and noted gross reserves had climbed to $16 billion by end-December, up from $14.5 billion six months earlier, according to the IMF’s own press release. That progress unlocked roughly $1.1 billion under the EFF and $220 million under a parallel climate-resilience facility, bringing total disbursements under the two arrangements to about $4.8 billion.
Where the fault lines actually are
The uncomfortable part of this story, laid out by commentary reported in The Hans India, is that revenue targets get IMF scrutiny with great precision, while structural reform of loss-making public enterprises — Pakistan International Airlines and Pakistan Steel Mills chief among them — moves far more slowly. Those enterprises’ losses are absorbed by the national exchequer through subsidies, guarantees, and debt restructuring year after year, and privatization plans keep slipping because the political cost of confronting them is high.
Distribution company inefficiency compounds the problem. In FY25, Discos posted Rs 265 billion in losses, an improvement on FY24’s Rs 276 billion but still a substantial drag, according to Geo News, with Quetta, Peshawar and Hyderabad among the worst-performing utilities.
What happens if the pattern holds
Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio sits between 70% and 80% as of 2026, according to Wikipedia’s economic summary, with debt servicing occasionally consuming two-thirds of government spending. That’s the backdrop against which every circular-debt conversation happens: there is very little fiscal room left to absorb another missed deadline.
The missed gas tariff deadline doesn’t automatically trigger a program breakdown — Pakistan has weathered similar friction points before during its current EFF arrangement. But with the IMF’s own documentation showing persistent concern about the credibility of debt-reduction plans, and with global energy prices still elevated in the aftermath of the Iran war, the margin for further slippage is thin. The next review will likely hinge less on the rhetoric around reform and more on whether the Rs 5 levy and LNG cargo sales actually show up in the numbers.
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Analysis
Malaysia Bets Its 2026 on “Execution” — And the Semiconductor Upcycle Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
Malaysia’s government has declared 2026 a year of “execution” and “discipline” as the Anwar Ibrahim administration races to deliver on the 13th Malaysia Plan (RMK13) ahead of elections that could come as early as February 2028, according to Fortune’s interview with economy minister Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir.
A Strong Base to Build From
Malaysia’s economy grew 4.9% in 2025 following 5.1% growth the year before, with unemployment falling to 2.9% — the lowest in a decade — and the ringgit trading at its strongest level in five years. HSBC’s ASEAN economist Yun Liu forecasts 4.6% growth for 2026, citing strength in electrical equipment manufacturing, tourism, and sound government policy, while Nomura economists have projected an even more bullish 5.2%, pointing to infrastructure spending under RMK13.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projects growth moderating slightly to 4.6% from an estimated 4.9% in 2025, describing Malaysia’s performance as reflecting its “entrenched position in global semiconductor and electronics value chains” and the broader global tech upcycle, according to AMRO’s assessment of Malaysia’s investment upcycle.
Navigating Washington Without Picking Sides
Malaysia’s trade relationship with the US has been turbulent. Washington imposed 25% tariffs on Malaysian goods in April 2025, rattling the country’s export-led economy, before a deal reduced US duties to 19% in exchange for Malaysia lowering tariffs on select American products, with exemptions carved out for aviation components and electrical equipment. Malaysia’s trade hit a record high of more than 3 trillion ringgit (roughly $780 billion) last year despite the friction.
Deputy finance minister Liew Chin Tong has framed Malaysia’s positioning explicitly around neutrality: the country is “not China, not the US,” a stance he argues gives Malaysia a strategic advantage in both geopolitical and supply-chain terms, according to Fortune’s reporting from the Forum Ekonomi Malaysia summit.
Capital Is Flowing In — From Everywhere
Malaysia recorded 22.8 billion ringgit (about $5.8 billion) in foreign direct investment in the first quarter of 2026, a 6.0% year-on-year increase, moderating from the prior quarter’s 48.7% surge. Inflows into information and communication technology services remained particularly strong, with China, Hong Kong, and Singapore serving as the primary capital sources, according to McKinsey’s Southeast Asia quarterly economic review. Bank Negara Malaysia has held its policy rate steady following a pre-emptive 25 basis-point cut in July 2025, with headline inflation projected to average just 2.0% in 2026.
The Long Game: Semiconductors, Rare Earths, and Nuclear Power
Beyond RMK13’s near-term targets, Malaysian officials are positioning the country’s industrial strategy around decades, not years. Minister Akmal has reiterated commitments to eliminate coal use by 2044 and reach net zero by 2050, while confirming Malaysia is actively “exploring the potential” of nuclear power to meet the energy demands of its expanding data-center and semiconductor sectors. AMRO’s structural policy guidance urges Malaysia to develop domestic semiconductor and rare-earth capabilities as a hedge against ongoing US-China “geoeconomic fracturing,” positioning the country as a trusted neutral hub for global manufacturers diversifying away from concentrated exposure to either superpower.
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