Opinion
Pakistan Assumes Digital Cooperation Organization Presidency: A Pivotal Moment for Global Digital Inclusion
As Islamabad takes the helm of the DCO in 2026, the world watches to see whether this coalition can bridge the widening digital divide—or simply become another multilateral talking shop.
KUWAIT CITY — Pakistan took control Thursday of a little-known but increasingly influential digital governance coalition, assuming the presidency of the 16-nation Digital Cooperation Organization at a moment when debates over artificial intelligence, data sovereignty and cybersecurity are fracturing the global tech landscape.
The handover at the organization’s fifth General Assembly in Kuwait elevates Shaza Fatima Khawaja, Pakistan’s minister of state for information technology, to the chairmanship of a bloc that represents more than 800 million internet users across the Middle East, South Asia and parts of Africa—a collective attempting to assert technological independence from both Western platforms and Chinese infrastructure.
The transfer of leadership wasn’t merely ceremonial. It represented a calculated bet by the 16-member organization—which now accounts for over 800 million digitally connected citizens across three continents—that Pakistan’s unique position between the developed and developing digital worlds could catalyze meaningful progress on issues ranging from cybersecurity frameworks to artificial intelligence governance. The question now is whether Islamabad can deliver substance to match the symbolism.
The DCO’s Rapid Evolution: From Regional Initiative to Global Digital Force
Founded in November 2020 by just five countries—Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia—the Digital Cooperation Organization emerged from a recognition that the architecture of global digital governance was being written without sufficient input from emerging markets. What began as a modest Middle Eastern initiative has metastasized into something far more ambitious: a counterweight to Western-dominated tech policy frameworks that many members believe inadequately address the realities of developing digital economies.
The organization’s expansion tells its own story. From its original quintet, the DCO has grown to encompass 16 member states, creating a sprawling coalition that bridges the Gulf’s petrostate-funded digital ambitions with South Asia’s massive user bases and Africa’s leapfrog innovation ecosystems. According to research published by The Economist, the DCO’s focus on digital public infrastructure—the unsexy but essential backbone of modern digital economies—has positioned it as a serious player in debates about technological sovereignty and data governance.
The timing of Pakistan’s DCO presidency 2026 is particularly significant. As global powers fracture over AI regulation, data localization, and platform governance, middle powers are finding unprecedented leverage. The DCO represents an attempt to create what policy analysts call “regulatory optionality”—the ability for emerging economies to choose frameworks that serve their developmental needs rather than simply importing Silicon Valley’s libertarian ethos or Beijing’s surveillance-enabled model.
Shaza Fatima Khawaja’s Vision: Beyond Digital Rhetoric
In her acceptance remarks at the Kuwait assembly, Shaza Fatima Khawaja DCO leadership began with characteristic pragmatism. “I would like to reaffirm Pakistan’s unwavering support for the DCO,” she stated, her words carefully calibrated to signal both continuity and ambition. “Together through collaboration and shared purpose we can ensure that digital transformation delivers inclusive growth and shared prosperity for all and as a founding member Pakistan is proud to see it growing and see it prospering and working towards a shared future.”
The statement, while diplomatically anodyne, hints at Pakistan’s strategic priorities for its year-long tenure. Unlike previous presidencies that emphasized infrastructure connectivity or e-government platforms, Khawaja’s ministry has signaled that Pakistan’s chairmanship will prioritize what insiders call the “human layer” of digital transformation: education, safety, and genuinely inclusive access.
This focus isn’t accidental. Pakistan’s own digital journey has been characterized by stark contradictions. The country boasts over 125 million internet users and a thriving freelance economy that generates hundreds of millions in annual remittances, yet nearly 40% of its population remains offline, trapped on the wrong side of infrastructure, affordability, and literacy barriers. These domestic realities have made Khawaja’s ministry acutely aware of the gap between digital policy rhetoric and ground-level implementation—a gap the DCO digital economy goals must address if the organization wants to maintain credibility.
Pakistan Digital Transformation 2026: Ambition Meets Implementation Challenges
Pakistan’s assumption of the DCO presidency coincides with its own aggressive domestic digital agenda. The government’s “Digital Nation Pakistan” initiative—a sweeping framework unveiled in late 2025—aims to bring 50 million additional Pakistanis online by 2028 while quadrupling the IT services export sector to $15 billion annually. The DCO chairmanship offers Islamabad an opportunity to beta-test these initiatives on a regional scale while learning from peer countries facing similar challenges.
The priorities Pakistan has outlined for its DCO tenure reflect this dual focus on domestic transformation and regional cooperation:
Digital Education Infrastructure: Pakistan plans to champion the creation of a DCO-wide framework for digital literacy, drawing on successful models like Bangladesh’s “Learning Passport” initiative and adapting them for contexts where internet penetration remains sporadic. The goal is to create portable, standardized digital credentials that allow workers to move seamlessly across DCO member labor markets—a potentially revolutionary shift for regional economic integration.
Cybersecurity and Online Safety: With DCO member states experiencing a 340% increase in ransomware attacks between 2022 and 2025, according to cybersecurity data compiled by Forbes, Pakistan’s presidency will prioritize the establishment of a regional Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) network. This infrastructure would allow real-time threat intelligence sharing—critical for countries that lack the resources for sophisticated independent cyber defense capabilities.
AI Collaboration and Governance: Perhaps most ambitiously, Pakistan intends to use its DCO platform to advocate for what Khawaja has termed “AI pluralism”—the principle that artificial intelligence development should reflect diverse cultural values and developmental priorities rather than converging on a single Western or Chinese model. This aligns with Pakistan’s own experimentation with large language models trained on Urdu and regional languages, an effort that has attracted interest from other Global South nations frustrated by English-language AI hegemony.
How Pakistan’s DCO Leadership Boosts Global Digital Inclusion: The Geopolitical Calculus
For observers tracking the evolving digital world order, Pakistan’s DCO presidency matters for reasons that transcend the organization’s specific policy agenda. The country occupies a strategic position in multiple overlapping technology ecosystems: it’s a major recipient of Chinese digital infrastructure investment through the Belt and Road Initiative, maintains deep technical partnerships with Turkey and the Gulf states, and retains significant educational and business ties to Western tech ecosystems through its vast diaspora.
This positioning allows Pakistan to serve as what diplomatic theorists call a “hinge state” in digital governance debates—capable of translating between competing visions of internet governance and potentially brokering compromises that pure regional blocs cannot achieve. The DCO digital inclusion agenda that emerges under Pakistan’s leadership will test whether this theoretical advantage translates into practical policy innovation.
Early indications suggest cautious optimism. Pakistan’s Ministry of IT has already convened working groups on three priority areas: establishing minimum standards for algorithmic transparency in government services, creating mutual recognition frameworks for digital identity systems, and developing shared protocols for cross-border data flows that balance privacy protection with economic efficiency. These aren’t revolutionary proposals, but they represent the kind of incremental technical diplomacy that can yield lasting institutional benefits.
The geopolitical implications extend beyond the DCO itself. If Pakistan can demonstrate effective digital multilateralism, it strengthens the case for middle-power leadership on technology governance at venues like the United Nations and the G20. Conversely, a presidency that produces only vague communiqués and unimplemented action plans would reinforce skepticism about whether emerging markets can move beyond grievance-based tech politics to constructive institution-building.
The Economist’s Take: Can Digital Cooperation Overcome Political Fragmentation?
Skeptics—and they are numerous—point to the DCO’s fundamental structural challenge: its members agree on the problem (Western digital dominance) far more than they agree on solutions. Saudi Arabia’s vision of digital development emphasizes state-directed megaprojects and close integration with Western tech giants. Pakistan’s approach favors distributed innovation and regulatory frameworks that empower local entrepreneurs. Jordan prioritizes becoming a regional tech services hub. These aren’t necessarily incompatible visions, but they create coordination problems that no single presidency can fully resolve.
Moreover, the DCO operates in an increasingly hostile geopolitical environment. U.S.-China tech decoupling creates pressure for countries to choose sides in ways that cut across DCO membership. India’s conspicuous absence from the organization—despite its obvious interests in digital governance—reflects concerns about associating too closely with Saudi and Gulf-led initiatives. And domestic political instability in several member states raises questions about whether governments can maintain consistent long-term digital strategies.
Yet these challenges also create opportunities. The very fragmentation of global digital governance—what scholars call the “splinternet”—increases demand for bridge institutions that can facilitate cooperation without requiring full alignment on values or political systems. The DCO’s emphasis on practical, technical cooperation rather than grand ideological projects positions it well for this role, particularly if Pakistan’s presidency can demonstrate tangible deliverables.
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Agenda and Beyond
As Pakistan settles into its DCO chairmanship, several concrete initiatives will test the organization’s effectiveness:
The planned launch of a DCO Digital Skills Certification Program in Q3 2026, designed to create portable credentials for tech workers across member states, will indicate whether the organization can move beyond policy documents to operational programs. Pakistan’s Ministry of IT is already piloting the framework with 5,000 students across three technical universities, with plans to scale to 100,000 participants by year-end if the model proves viable.
A proposed DCO Cybersecurity Fund, capitalized with $200 million in initial commitments, would provide grants and technical assistance to members building out national cyber defense capabilities. Pakistan is lobbying Gulf states to anchor the fund, leveraging its traditional diplomatic ties in the region.
Perhaps most significantly, Pakistan intends to use its presidency to convene the first-ever DCO summit on AI governance in Islamabad during November 2026. The gathering would bring together not just government officials but technologists, civil society representatives, and private sector leaders to hash out common approaches to algorithmic accountability, bias mitigation, and the ethical deployment of AI systems in contexts where regulatory capacity remains limited.
These initiatives operate on different timescales and face varying probability of success. But collectively, they represent an attempt to build what development economists call “institutional thickness”—the layered relationships and shared practices that allow cooperation to persist even when political headwinds shift.
The Bottom Line: Digital Sovereignty Meets Practical Multilateralism
Pakistan’s assumption of the Digital Cooperation Organization presidency arrives at a moment when digital governance feels simultaneously more urgent and more intractable than ever. The promise of technology to accelerate development and empower citizens competes with mounting evidence of surveillance capitalism, algorithmic discrimination, and the consolidation of digital power in the hands of a few platform giants.
The DCO won’t solve these dilemmas. No single organization can. But under Pakistan’s leadership, it has the opportunity to demonstrate that middle powers can craft pragmatic, culturally informed approaches to digital policy that serve their citizens’ needs without simply choosing between Washington’s market fundamentalism and Beijing’s digital authoritarianism.
Shaza Fatima Khawaja’s challenge is to convert the organization’s aspirational rhetoric into measurable progress—whether that’s thousands of newly certified tech workers, reduced cyber vulnerability across member states, or simply more robust dialogue on AI ethics that centers Global South perspectives. These would be modest achievements by the standards of revolutionary digital transformation, but meaningful ones nonetheless.
As the world fragments into competing digital blocs, the success or failure of institutions like the DCO will help determine whether technology becomes a force for global integration or further fragmentation. Pakistan’s year at the helm offers a chance to tip the scales toward cooperation. Whether Islamabad can deliver on that promise will become clear long before the next presidency rotates in February 2027.
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Pakistan Economy
Pakistan Economy 2026: Why GDP Growth Isn’t Reaching Ordinary Households
By the official scorecard, Pakistan’s economy had a good year. The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 reports real GDP growth of 3.7%, easing inflation, improved foreign exchange reserves, and a primary fiscal surplus, according to reporting in Pakistan Today. The Asian Development Bank’s July 2026 outlook confirms the trajectory, projecting 3.7% growth for both 2026 and 2027, with inflation forecast at 7.2% for the year, per the ADB’s Pakistan country page.
Yet the same data that shows recovery also shows why it hasn’t reached most households — and understanding that gap matters more for policymakers, investors, and ordinary Pakistanis than the headline growth number itself.
Where the growth is actually coming from
The composition of Pakistan’s 3.7% GDP growth reveals a sharply uneven expansion. Large-scale manufacturing grew 6.1% in FY2025-26 — nearly double the headline rate — while agriculture, which remains the primary income source for tens of millions of Pakistanis, expanded by just 2.9%, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey figures reported by Pakistan Today. That gap is not a rounding error: agriculture still accounts for roughly 23% of GDP and employs over a third of the national labour force, based on the sector breakdown in Pakistan’s economic profile.
In effect, the recovery has been concentrated in industrial and formal-sector output — the parts of the economy captured most cleanly in GDP statistics — while the rural, agriculture-dependent majority has seen far more modest gains, if any.
The stabilization is real — but so is the poverty backdrop
It would be inaccurate to characterize the improvement as illusory. Pakistan’s headline inflation figures, foreign exchange reserve position, and fiscal balance have all genuinely improved from the acute crisis years of 2022-2024, when the country faced a severe balance-of-payments crunch driven by excessive external borrowing, the 2022 floods, and a global energy price shock, according to background compiled in Wikipedia’s account of the Pakistani economic crisis. By June 2025, Pakistan had reportedly led emerging markets in sovereign credit risk improvement, and April 2025 inflation briefly hit a historic low.
But stabilization from crisis is a different achievement than broad-based prosperity. Pakistan’s population below the poverty line stood at nearly 45%, with close to 16% in extreme poverty as of the latest figures cited in its national economic profile — context that helps explain why 3.7% aggregate growth, concentrated in manufacturing, does not translate into a broadly felt recovery. Unemployment remains close to 7%.
What this means for policy and for markets
For investors and multilateral lenders, the read-through is that Pakistan’s macro stabilization — inflation control, reserve accumulation, fiscal discipline — is on track and consistent with the trajectory the IMF has projected under its ongoing programme, with the Fund’s own data showing 2026 real GDP growth near 3.6% and consumer price inflation around 7.2%, according to the IMF’s Pakistan country page. That is the story that tends to dominate sovereign bond pricing and credit-rating commentary.
For domestic policymakers, the harder problem is structural: converting industrial-sector growth into broad income gains requires addressing agricultural productivity, rural credit access, and job creation in sectors beyond large-scale manufacturing — none of which move as quickly as a GDP print. Sindh’s cotton output, for instance, posted a 67% surge by end-July that offset declines in Punjab linked to monsoon disruption, illustrating how volatile and regionally uneven agricultural performance remains even within a single growing season, per Dawn’s business desk.
Key takeaways
- Pakistan’s FY2025-26 GDP grew 3.7%, but large-scale manufacturing (+6.1%) far outpaced agriculture (+2.9%), the sector employing the largest share of the workforce.
- Inflation, reserves, and the fiscal balance have genuinely improved from the 2022-2024 crisis years.
- Nearly 45% of the population remains below the poverty line, meaning macro stabilization has not yet closed Pakistan’s underlying poverty gap.
- The IMF and ADB both project ~3.6-3.7% growth continuing into 2026-2027, with inflation forecast around 7.2%.
- Regional agricultural performance remains volatile — Sindh’s cotton crop surged even as Punjab’s declined amid monsoon disruption.
FAQ
Is Pakistan’s economy actually recovering in 2026? Yes, by macro indicators — GDP grew 3.7% in FY2025-26, inflation has eased, and reserves have improved. But the growth is concentrated in large-scale manufacturing rather than agriculture, which employs more Pakistanis.
Why don’t ordinary Pakistanis feel the recovery? Because growth has been uneven: agriculture, the main income source for over a third of the workforce, grew only 2.9%, versus 6.1% for large-scale manufacturing, and poverty remains near 45% of the population.
What is Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for 2027? The Asian Development Bank projects 3.7% growth for both 2026 and 2027, broadly matching IMF projections of around 3.6%.
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Budget
Rachel Reeves’s £25 Billion Problem: What the Autumn Budget Gap Means for Britain
Britain’s economy is growing again — just not fast enough to spare Chancellor Rachel Reeves from another difficult budget. The UK expanded by roughly 0.1% in August, keeping the economy on track for about 0.2% growth in the third quarter, but that modest rebound won’t be enough to close a fiscal hole opening beneath the government’s plans, according to analysis from FXStreet.
Where the £25 billion gap comes from
The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its economic assessment this autumn relative to its Spring Statement forecast, chiefly on weaker productivity assumptions. Combined with higher gilt yields and a series of policy reversals over the past year, that downgrade is projected to blow a roughly £25 billion annual hole in the public finances compared with the position Reeves described in March, per the same FXStreet analysis. A separate assessment attributes some of the UK’s recent resilience to a substantial rise in government spending — departmental budgets have grown roughly 4% in real terms — a tailwind officials do not expect to persist into the next fiscal year.
This follows an already-large tax package. Reeves’s autumn 2025 budget delivered more than £26 billion in new tax measures, according to Allianz Trade’s UK economic outlook, on top of £41.5 billion in tax increases the year before. Much of that revenue is earmarked for higher welfare spending, leaving comparatively little room for growth-focused stimulus.
The government’s counter-narrative
Downing Street has framed its record differently. In its own Spring Forecast presentation, the government pointed to inflation falling faster than expected, GDP per person growing more than projected in the original Budget, and household energy bill relief as evidence its plan is working, according to the UK government’s own Spring Forecast statement. Officials also cite the UK’s growth rate as the fastest in the G7 among European economies in 2025.
The Bank of England, meanwhile, has penciled in third-quarter growth of around 0.4% — a target that already looks difficult to reach given the pace of expansion through August and September, according to FXStreet’s assessment of the BoE forecast gap.
Why global finance is watching
For institutional investors from Singapore to Dubai, the UK’s fiscal trajectory matters beyond domestic politics. Persistently elevated gilt yields make UK sovereign debt more attractive on a relative-yield basis but signal continued fiscal strain — a dynamic that has already accelerated the migration of UK-domiciled wealth toward lower-tax jurisdictions including Singapore and the UAE (see our companion report on the non-dom exodus). A credible autumn budget, or the absence of one, will shape whether that capital flow accelerates further.
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Markets & Finance
Russia Fuel Shortages 2026: Inside a Cracking War Economy
Gasoline shortages have begun appearing at filling stations in and around Moscow, a striking domestic symptom of strain in an economy the Kremlin has long held up as proof that Western sanctions have failed, even as gold reserve liquidation and a collapsing growth outlook point to deepening fiscal pressure from four years of war.
Fuel Shortages Reach the Capital
Images circulating from Moscow filling stations in mid-July showed pylons signalling “no gasoline” at pumps operated by domestic retailer Neftmagistral, according to reporting by TIME on the state of Russia’s war economy. Fuel shortages inside Russia’s own borders — as opposed to sanctions-driven export disruption — mark an escalation of a squeeze that has been building for months across the domestic refining and distribution network.
Growth Grinds Toward a Standstill
Russia’s economy is now projected to grow just 0.4% in 2026, down from an already anaemic 1% in 2025, when the country narrowly avoided outright recession, according to analysis published by Forbes. That trajectory stands in sharp contrast to the 4.1% rebound Russia posted in 2023, when the economy adapted to initial sanctions by forging new trade relationships — a bounce that has since proven unsustainable as wartime spending exhausted its stimulative effect and energy prices softened.
The same analysis notes that Russia has liquidated 71% of its gold reserves to help fund a civilian sector now stagnating alongside an overheating military-industrial complex, a combination that has pushed interest rates higher and squeezed non-defence business investment. Russia’s oil and gas revenues, which fund roughly 40% of the federal budget, reportedly halved in January 2026 before a temporary reprieve arrived via the Middle East conflict, when Brent crude surged more than 55% and the Trump administration eased some sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Gasoline shortages have reached Moscow filling stations in 2026 as Russia’s war economy shows deepening strain: GDP growth is projected at just 0.4% for the year, gold reserves have been 71% liquidated, and the EU has extended sanctions through July 2027, targeting energy revenue and shadow-fleet oil shipping.
Sanctions Extended Through 2027
The European Union has moved to lock in pressure for the medium term. The Council of the EU formally extended its economic sanctions regime against Russia for a further twelve months, through 31 July 2027, covering trade, finance, energy, and dual-use technology sectors first imposed in 2014 and dramatically expanded since February 2022. The bloc has said it remains determined to keep weakening Russia’s war economy, specifically citing plans to further curb shadow-fleet oil shipping operations and constrain the country’s banking system.
Enforcement has intensified in parallel. UK authorities reported seizing sanctioned goods on 58 occasions in the 2025/26 financial year and issuing a £1.1 million settlement for a sanctions breach, according to a summary of enforcement activity published by Fieldfisher.
The Iran War’s Double-Edged Lifeline
The Middle East conflict has proven a complicated boon for Moscow. While the oil-price spike has temporarily bolstered Russia’s export revenue, the same instability has undermined Russian energy and infrastructure ambitions in Iran itself — two Russian-backed power plant projects have reportedly been paused, along with oil and gas exploration work tied to a planned transit corridor linking Russia to India via Iranian territory, according to the Forbes analysis. In other words, the war that briefly rescued Russia’s energy revenues has simultaneously stalled one of its key long-term strategic diversification projects.
What Comes Next
With GDP growth cooling to near-zero, gold reserves depleted, and domestic fuel shortages now visible to ordinary Russians in the capital, the gap between the Kremlin’s public resilience narrative and underlying fiscal strain appears to be widening. Whether this translates into changed battlefield calculus or fresh diplomatic flexibility remains the central open question for Western policymakers as EU sanctions lock in through mid-2027.
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