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Supply Chain Fragmentation: 10 Trends Reshaping Global Trade This Year

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Key Takeaways

  • UNCTAD now identifies geopolitical instability, not trade-policy uncertainty, as the dominant source of global economic risk in 2026 — a notable shift in the hierarchy of threats.
  • Nearshoring has moved from strategic option to majority practice: 43% of surveyed companies plan to shift supply chains toward the US over the next three years, and 65% of European executives already have a reindustrialisation strategy in place or in progress.
  • Maritime chokepoint risk remains structurally elevated: Red Sea transits are only partially resuming, and Cape of Good Hope rerouting still adds 10-14 days when used.
  • The OECD warns that full-scale relocalisation is not a costless fix — its modelling shows aggressive reshoring could cut global trade by more than 18% and reduce global real GDP by more than 5%.
  • Supply chain risk management in 2026 increasingly means diversification and visibility, not blanket reshoring — a nuance many corporate strategies are still catching up to.

The New Hierarchy of Supply Chain Risk

Trade professionals spent 2023-2025 optimising for tariff volatility. In 2026, the primary risk variable has shifted. UNCTAD notes that geopolitical instability has become the dominant source of instability for the global economy, having displaced trade policy uncertainty as the primary concern by early 2026, with conflicts in the Middle East, disruptions in critical maritime routes including the Strait of Hormuz, and strategic competition over advanced technologies all contributing to a more volatile trading environment.

That reordering matters for corporate strategy: a tariff can be modelled, priced, and negotiated around. A closed shipping chokepoint or a conflict-driven export-control regime cannot be hedged the same way. Below are the ten trends most relevant to companies and investors managing global trade exposure through the rest of 2026.

1. Nearshoring Has Crossed From Strategy to Default

43% of surveyed companies are now planning to shift their supply chains toward the US over the next three years, with some of that movement coming directly from China (38% of respondents) and Western Europe (21%). This is no longer an early-adopter behaviour — it is approaching majority practice among large manufacturers and retailers.

2. Europe’s Reindustrialisation Push Is Real but Uneven

65% of Europe-based executives either already have a reindustrialisation strategy in place or have one in progress, according to Capgemini research, with companies including Volvo reportedly shifting EV production out of China toward Europe. However, Capgemini’s 2026 reindustrialisation research also shows planned investment becoming more targeted, with nearshoring within the EU actually receding from 2025 levels while reshoring rose only modestly — a sign that ambition has outpaced executed investment.

3. Maritime Chokepoints Remain Structurally Compromised

The Suez Canal normally carries about 15% of global maritime trade volume, but Red Sea attacks pushed many vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 days or more to delivery times on average — and in early 2024, PortWatch data showed trade through the Suez Canal down 50% year over year. Red Sea transits began resuming into 2026, but Cape routing still adds 10 to 14 days when used, meaning many networks are keeping structural slack rather than assuming normal service has returned.

4. Multi-Hub Sourcing Is Replacing Single-Country Dependency

<cite name=”freshkeys”>Retailers are proactively redesigning their networks rather than reacting to crises.</cite> TradeBeyond’s Q1 2026 Retail Sourcing Report shows retailers moving away from traditional, linear supply chains and embracing regionalised, multi-hub strategies, with nearshoring and multi-hub sourcing gaining traction in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.

5. Friend-Shoring Is Overtaking Pure Cost-Based Offshoring

Rather than full reshoring, companies are moving toward friend-shoring, where political alignment and regulatory stability increasingly influence supply chain design — volumes are shifting toward Eastern Europe, particularly Poland, for EU-market proximity, while nearshoring into Mexico and broader Latin America is driven by tariff uncertainty and evolving trade agreements.

6. Mexico Has Become North America’s Default Nearshore Hub

A Federal Reserve report shows Mexico became the top import supplier to the US after 2018-2019 tariffs on Chinese goods, with about 53% of Mexico’s trade gains coming directly from those tariffs — shifting freight from cargo ships to cross-border trucks and trains.

7. Execution Maturity Is Lagging Strategic Intent

84% of retail supply chain leaders struggle to align IT infrastructure for multinode fulfilment, highlighting how difficult it remains to connect order-management, warehouse-management, transport-management, and carrier systems in a real-time, data-driven environment. Strategy has moved faster than the systems needed to execute it.

8. Strategic Reserves Are Becoming a Formal Risk Tool

Organisations are increasingly building strategic reserves of grains, fertilisers, and semiconductors, alongside nearshoring, supplier diversification under compressed timelines, and expanded digital visibility, as structural responses to a fragmented environment.

9. Manufacturing Bears a Disproportionate Share of Tariff Exposure

Manufacturing is the most exposed sector to tariffs, accounting for 19 of the top 25 most-affected subsectors in the US economy, with executives remaining most focused on protecting margins and ensuring resilience in a volatile global operating environment.

10. Full Relocalisation Would Be Self-Defeating

OECD modelling shows that efforts to relocalise supply chains could cut global trade by more than 18% and lower global real GDP by more than 5%, without consistently improving stability — an important reality check that resilience usually comes from diversification, visibility, and speed of response, not from making every supply chain local.

Comparative Table: Supply Chain Strategy Before vs. After 2026 Fragmentation

DimensionPre-2023 Model2026 Model
Primary risk driverCost optimisation, occasional tariff shocksGeopolitical instability (per UNCTAD, now dominant)
Sourcing structureLinear, often single-country dependentRegionalised, multi-hub
Shipping routingAssumed stable chokepoint accessStructural slack built in for Red Sea/Cape uncertainty
Inventory philosophyLean, just-in-timeStrategic reserves for critical inputs (grains, semiconductors)
Relocation logicFull offshoring for lowest costFriend-shoring: cost balanced against political alignment

Why It Matters: The Investment Read-Through

For investors, supply chain fragmentation is not a single trade to make — it is a set of differentiated exposures. Logistics and freight-forwarding companies with strong multi-hub routing capability are structurally advantaged over single-lane carriers. Mexican and Central/Eastern European industrial real estate and infrastructure stand to benefit from sustained nearshoring capital flows, even as headline EU reshoring investment has cooled from 2025 levels. Semiconductor and critical-input strategic-reserve policy is becoming a genuine government-spending category worth tracking as a demand signal for specialised storage and logistics providers.

What to Do Next

  • Audit single-chokepoint dependency in your own supply chain against the Suez/Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz risk factors, and build routing optionality even where it adds modest permanent cost.
  • Distinguish nearshoring announcements from executed capital deployment — Capgemini’s data shows a real gap between strategic intent and completed EU reindustrialisation investment.
  • Prioritise supply chain visibility and IT integration spend over pure geographic relocation — execution-maturity gaps, not location choice, are the more common point of failure.
  • Treat friend-shoring, not reshoring, as the dominant multinational pattern when modelling corporate capital-expenditure trends for 2026-27.
  • Watch strategic-reserve policy announcements (grains, fertilisers, semiconductors) as a leading indicator of government-level supply chain risk management priorities.

FAQ

What is the single biggest supply chain risk in 2026, according to major institutions? UNCTAD identifies geopolitical instability as the dominant source of instability for the global economy in 2026, having displaced trade policy uncertainty as the primary concern.

Is full reshoring back to home countries the right response to supply chain fragmentation?

Most institutional analysis says no. OECD modelling shows aggressive relocalisation could cut global trade by more than 18% and lower global real GDP by more than 5%, without consistently improving stability — diversification and visibility are consistently identified as more effective than blanket reshoring.

Has the Red Sea shipping crisis been resolved in 2026?

Only partially. Red Sea transits began resuming into 2026, but Cape of Good Hope routing still adds 10 to 14 days when used, so many networks have kep


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Analysis

Amazon Prime vs Walmart+: Which Membership Saves You More in 2026?

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Subscription fatigue is real, and with both Amazon Prime and Walmart+ now priced close together, the question isn’t just “which has faster shipping” anymore — it’s which membership delivers more actual financial value once you account for every perk, discount, and hidden cost. Both programs have expanded well beyond free shipping into fuel discounts, streaming bundles, prescription savings, and cashback-style perks, making a direct comparison more complicated — and more important — than it used to be.

This breakdown compares Amazon Prime and Walmart+ specifically through a financial lens: what each membership actually costs after accounting for real usage, which perks translate into measurable savings, and which one makes more sense depending on your shopping habits. If you’re deciding between the two, or wondering whether you need both, this is the comparison that matters.

Base Membership Cost and What You’re Actually Paying For

Both memberships sit in a similar annual price range, but the value proposition diverges quickly once you look past shipping. Amazon Prime bundles in Prime Video, Prime Music, Prime Reading, and periodic exclusive shopping events like Prime Day, positioning itself as much as an entertainment subscription as a shopping perk. Walmart+ leans harder into everyday savings — fuel discounts at Walmart and Murphy USA/Sam’s Club stations, member prescription pricing, and early access to deals — positioning itself more explicitly as a cost-of-living savings tool than an entertainment bundle.

This distinction matters more than it might first appear: if you don’t watch Prime Video or use Amazon’s other entertainment perks, you’re effectively paying for value you never redeem, which changes the real cost-per-benefit calculation significantly in Walmart+’s favor for budget-focused shoppers.

Where Amazon Prime Wins Financially

Prime’s biggest financial edge comes from its sheer breadth — free shipping across a massive product catalog, frequent lightning deals, Prime Day and Black Friday exclusive pricing, and a genuinely valuable entertainment bundle that would cost more if purchased separately as standalone streaming subscriptions. For households that already shop heavily on Amazon and use its content ecosystem, the membership often pays for itself several times over.

Prime’s Strongest Financial Perks

  • Prime Video and Music bundled in – Comparable standalone streaming subscriptions would cost more separately
  • Prime Day and exclusive member deals – Some of the steepest discounts of the year are member-exclusive
  • Same-day and next-day shipping on huge product selection – Reduces impulse in-store spending and time cost
  • Amazon Fresh/Whole Foods discounts – Additional grocery savings layered on top of the core membership
  • Prime Reading and Kindle deals – Added value for frequent readers, though a smaller factor for most households

Where Walmart+ Wins Financially

Walmart+’s value proposition is more directly tied to recurring, practical household spending — fuel savings that compound with regular driving, member pricing on prescriptions that can meaningfully offset healthcare costs, and free delivery from Walmart stores that competes directly with grocery delivery services that otherwise charge separately. For budget-conscious households prioritizing everyday cost reduction over entertainment bundling, Walmart+ often delivers a higher effective return relative to its membership cost.

Walmart+’s Strongest Financial Perks

  • Fuel discounts at partner gas stations – Per-gallon savings that compound significantly for frequent drivers
  • Free grocery delivery from Walmart stores – Comparable third-party grocery delivery often charges separate membership and delivery fees
  • Member prescription pricing – Meaningful savings for households managing regular prescription costs
  • Early access to deals and Walmart+ Week – Comparable to Prime Day but with a stronger everyday-essentials focus
  • Included Walmart+ Assist option – Discounted membership rate for qualifying government assistance program participants

Side-by-Side Financial Comparison

Perk CategoryAmazon PrimeWalmart+
Free shipping/deliveryYes, vast catalogYes, Walmart stores + select delivery
Entertainment bundleExtensive (Video, Music, Reading)None
Fuel discountsNoYes
Prescription savingsLimitedYes, member pricing
Grocery deliveryAmazon Fresh/Whole FoodsWalmart stores
Best forEntertainment + broad shopping householdsEveryday essentials + driving households
Approximate annual costComparable to Walmart+Comparable to Prime

How to Decide Which One Actually Saves You Money

  • Calculate your realistic entertainment usage – If you’d otherwise pay for Prime Video separately, that alone can justify Prime’s cost
  • Estimate your annual fuel spending – Frequent drivers often see Walmart+’s fuel discount outweigh Prime’s shipping perks
  • Factor in prescription costs – Households with regular prescriptions may find Walmart+’s savings compound significantly over a year
  • Consider where you already shop most – Membership perks only generate savings if they match your existing spending habits, not your aspirational ones
  • Don’t rule out having both temporarily – Many households run both during peak sales events (Prime Day and Walmart+ Week) and cancel one afterward

Tracking Your Actual Usage Before Renewal

The most reliable way to determine which membership is worth keeping is to actually track your usage over a full billing cycle rather than relying on assumptions about your habits. Keep a simple running log for a month of every delivery, streaming session, fuel fill-up, or discount you used through each membership, then estimate what those same purchases or services would have cost without the membership. This exercise routinely reveals that households overestimate how much they use certain perks — streaming content they rarely watch, or delivery services they use less than they think — while underestimating others, like fuel savings that compound quietly over dozens of fill-ups a year. Doing this once before your next renewal date gives you an actual data-driven answer rather than a guess based on how valuable the membership felt when you first signed up.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I get a free trial for either membership before committing?

Both programs have historically offered free trial periods, though exact lengths and availability change periodically and aren’t guaranteed to be offered indefinitely. Checking each program’s current sign-up page for an active trial offer before committing to a full annual membership is worth the two minutes it takes.

Is it worth paying for both memberships at once?

For some households, yes — particularly around major sales events like Prime Day and Walmart+ Week, when the potential savings from each platform’s exclusive deals can outweigh the cost of a short-term membership. Many people sign up for one during its peak sales event, capture the savings, then cancel before the next billing cycle if ongoing dual membership doesn’t otherwise pencil out.

Do student or family discounts apply to either membership?

Both programs have offered discounted rates for qualifying groups at various points, including student pricing and family or multi-account sharing options. Terms and eligibility change, so checking current program pages rather than relying on outdated information is important before assuming a discount applies to your situation.

Which membership is better if I mostly shop online rather than in physical stores? Amazon Prime generally has the edge for pure online shopping breadth given its larger third-party marketplace and product catalog, while Walmart+ perks are more closely tied to in-store and Walmart-specific online purchases. If your shopping is heavily concentrated on Amazon already, Prime’s broader catalog advantage becomes more relevant to your specific savings calculation.

Final Thoughts

There’s no universal winner between Amazon Prime and Walmart+ — the better financial choice depends entirely on whether your household spending leans toward broad online shopping and entertainment, or everyday essentials like fuel, groceries, and prescriptions. Run the actual numbers based on your last few months of spending in each category before committing to a full year of either membership, and don’t assume last year’s decision is still the right one as both programs continue adding and adjusting perks.

Which membership has actually saved you more money this year — Prime or Walmart+? Or are you running both? Share your real numbers in the comments.


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Analysis

Malaysia’s Economy Grew 6% in Q2, Beating Forecasts on Record Trade Surplus

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Malaysia delivered one of the standout growth surprises among Southeast Asian economies this year, with confirmed second-quarter GDP data showing the economy accelerated to 6% — comfortably ahead of consensus and its own first-quarter pace — powered by a record trade surplus and a semiconductor and AI-hardware export boom that has become the defining theme of the region’s 2026 growth story.

Growth Accelerates, Beating Consensus

Bank Negara Malaysia confirmed that the Malaysian economy grew 6% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 5.4% in the first quarter, driven by continued domestic demand and robust exports. The print beat consensus estimates of 5.8%, a margin significant enough to move currency markets on the announcement.

On the external side, exports accelerated on continued strength in electrical and electronics products and sustained expansion in services, alongside a rebound in liquefied natural gas exports and non-E&E manufacturing products. Household spending was supported by steady income growth and ongoing policy support, while investment growth was underpinned by continued spending on structures, machinery and equipment.

A Record Trade Surplus

The external numbers are, if anything, even more striking than the growth print. Malaysia’s exports surged 27.5% in the first half of 2026 while imports rose 16.9%, widening the trade surplus to RM147.1 billion from RM56.6 billion a year earlier. First-half trade rose 22.4% to a record RM1.8 trillion, according to separate commentary citing government data — a scale of expansion that puts Malaysia among the fastest-growing trade economies in Asia this year.

Kenanga Investment Bank attributed the resilience directly to the AI investment cycle, noting that Malaysia’s exposure to softer global demand is cushioned by the electrical and electronics and AI upcycle, particularly semiconductors, servers, and data-centre infrastructure. The bank added that hyperscaler capital expenditure and inventory normalisation across advanced economies should keep Malaysia’s export demand supported through the rest of 2026.

What This Means for the Ringgit

Currency strategists moved quickly to recalibrate their near-term ringgit forecasts on the data. One analyst told Bernama the ringgit is expected to trade around RM4.07 to RM4.08 with an upside bias in the immediate aftermath of the GDP release, while a separate analysis projected the ringgit trading within a 3.90-4.20 range against the US dollar through the second half of 2026, underpinned by Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to hold its Overnight Policy Rate steady at 2.75%.

Juwai IQI global chief economist Shan Saeed argued the ringgit’s case rests less on raw momentum and more on policy credibility and external ballast — Bank Negara’s consistency in balancing price stability, domestic growth, and orderly financial conditions without defending an explicit exchange-rate target.

That said, the ringgit’s year-to-date performance has been more modest than the trade data alone might suggest: on a year-to-date basis through mid-August, the ringgit was down about 0.9% against the US dollar, with its nominal effective exchange rate down roughly 1%, reflecting the broader tug-of-war between Malaysia’s strong fundamentals and global factors including shifting US monetary policy expectations and Middle East-linked risk aversion.

Current Account Set to Stay Comfortably in Surplus

Looking further ahead, Kenanga IB projects Malaysia’s current account surplus will remain firm at 2.1% of GDP in 2026, with tourism and digital-infrastructure spending expected to lift services exports even as costlier energy and softer global demand crimp some parts of world trade. The bank cautioned that a firmer ringgit could nudge imports higher and that energy costs remain a “swing factor,” but expects the external balance to stay comfortably positive regardless.

Inflation Pervasiveness on the Rise

Not every indicator in the release was unambiguously positive. Inflation pervasiveness — the share of CPI items registering monthly price increases — rose to 45.5% in the second quarter from 38.3% in the first, close to its historical average of 45.6%, driven mainly by a sharp increase in April before moderating in May and June. That pattern suggests price pressures broadened out even as they moderated somewhat by quarter-end — a dynamic the central bank will need to watch closely alongside its currently steady policy stance.

Key Takeaways

  • Malaysia’s economy grew 6% in Q2 2026, up from 5.4% in Q1 and beating the 5.8% consensus estimate.
  • Exports surged 27.5% in H1 2026, pushing the trade surplus to a record RM147.1 billion and H1 trade to RM1.8 trillion.
  • The AI-hardware and semiconductor export cycle, alongside a rebound in LNG shipments, is the key driver behind Malaysia’s outperformance.
  • The ringgit is expected to trade in a 3.90-4.20 range against the US dollar through 2H26, supported by Bank Negara Malaysia’s steady policy stance.
  • Inflation pervasiveness rose to 45.5% in Q2, a metric worth watching even as headline growth impresses.

Frequently Asked Questions

How fast did Malaysia’s economy grow in Q2 2026? Malaysia’s GDP grew 6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 5.4% in the first quarter and above the 5.8% consensus forecast.

What is driving Malaysia’s trade surplus to record levels? A 27.5% surge in exports in the first half of 2026 — led by electrical and electronics products, semiconductors, and a rebound in LNG shipments — pushed the trade surplus to a record RM147.1 billion.

What is the ringgit’s outlook for the rest of 2026? Analysts expect the ringgit to trade within a 3.90-4.20 range against the US dollar through the second half of 2026, supported by Malaysia’s strong export performance and Bank Negara Malaysia’s steady policy rate.


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Global Economy

Pakistan Posts Fastest Growth in Four Years as KSE-100 Closes at a Record High

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Pakistan’s economy delivered its strongest performance in four years in fiscal year 2025-26, with real GDP growing 3.7% even as the benchmark KSE-100 index shattered previous records — a combination that officials are framing as validation of the reform path pursued since the country’s latest IMF programme began.

A Recovery Four Years in the Making

The 3.7% growth rate marks an improvement on the 3.18% recorded the previous fiscal year, though it still falls short of the government’s original 4.2% target for FY26. Per capita income rose to $1,901 from $1,751 the year before, according to the government’s FY26 Economic Survey, while sectoral growth was broad-based: agriculture expanded 2.89%, industry 3.51%, and services 4.09%.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has pointed to a specific combination of factors behind the turnaround: strong corporate earnings, a declining policy rate, falling inflation, and the successful completion of IMF-EFF programme reviews, which together helped stabilise the macroeconomic environment and restore investor confidence after several years of crisis-mode policymaking.

KSE-100’s Record Run

The Pakistan Stock Exchange has been the most visible beneficiary of that stabilisation. The KSE-100 closed at a record 180,301 points, a gain of more than 43% over the fiscal year, with the number of active investors on the exchange climbing nearly 50% to over 583,000. Market capitalisation on the exchange rose from Rs15,237 billion to Rs16,534 billion between June 2025 and March 2026 alone, an increase of roughly Rs1,298 billion, or 8.5%, in just nine months.

That rally reflects a broader re-rating of Pakistani equities as the IMF-EFF programme has proceeded through successive tranche disbursements without the disruptions that derailed earlier attempts at fiscal consolidation.

Remittances Remain the External-Account Anchor

Workers’ remittances continue to do the heavy lifting on Pakistan’s external account. Inflows rose 8.2% to $30.3 billion during the July-March period of FY26, and the momentum has carried into the new fiscal year: overseas Pakistanis sent $3.631 billion in July 2026 alone, up 13% year-on-year and 4.5% month-on-month, according to State Bank of Pakistan data that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly welcomed as “highly encouraging.”

Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain the two largest source countries, though the reliance on remittances rather than export growth has drawn scrutiny from economists. A structural current account surplus of $72 million during July-March FY26 — down sharply from a $1.7 billion surplus in the same period a year earlier — underscores that the underlying trade position has actually weakened even as remittance-driven headline figures look strong.

The Dutch Disease Debate

Not every economist is celebrating the remittance dependency uncritically. Pakistan received roughly $95.8 billion in remittances between FY2023 and FY2025, compared with $91 billion in merchandise exports over the same period — a reversal of the traditional growth model built on export competitiveness. Research cited in Pakistani economic commentary suggests that once the remittance-to-GDP ratio exceeds roughly 6%, it can begin to exacerbate deindustrialisation and slow capital accumulation, a pattern economists have labelled a symptom of Dutch disease.

Aurangzeb has pushed back on the more alarmist framing, arguing that remittances are and will remain a critical structural component of Pakistan’s external balancing position, while acknowledging the need to simultaneously grow exports rather than treat the two as substitutes.

Looking Ahead to FY27

The government has set a 4% GDP growth target for FY2026-27 and aims to narrow the fiscal deficit further to 3.6% of GDP. Officials are pointing to continued fiscal discipline, record remittance inflows, expanding technology exports, and renewed foreign investment as the pillars expected to sustain the recovery into the new fiscal year — though the labour-migration data offers a more cautious signal: roughly 50,000 workers left for the UAE on work visas in Jan-July 2026, down from 52,000 in the same period of 2025 and 64,000 in 2024, suggesting the remittance engine itself may not accelerate indefinitely.

Key Takeaways

  • Pakistan’s economy grew 3.7% in FY26, the fastest pace in four years, though short of the 4.2% target.
  • The KSE-100 index closed the fiscal year at a record 180,301 points, up more than 43%, with active investors up nearly 50%.
  • Workers’ remittances hit $3.63 billion in July 2026 alone, up 13% year-on-year, extending a run that has become the economy’s key external stabiliser.
  • Economists continue to warn that heavy reliance on remittances over exports carries long-term Dutch disease risks.
  • The government targets 4% growth and a narrower 3.6% fiscal deficit for FY27.

Frequently Asked Questions

How fast did Pakistan’s economy grow in FY26? Pakistan’s GDP grew 3.7% in fiscal year 2025-26, its fastest pace in four years, though below the government’s 4.2% target.

What record did the KSE-100 index set? The KSE-100 closed the fiscal year at a record 180,301 points, gaining more than 43% over the year, with the number of active exchange investors rising nearly 50% to over 583,000.

Why are economists concerned about Pakistan’s reliance on remittances? Remittances have outpaced merchandise exports in recent years, and when the remittance-to-GDP ratio rises too high, economists warn it can discourage industrial development — a pattern known as Dutch disease.


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