Opinion
The rot beneath the bailout
It is no surprise that Pakistan has secured a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility from the IMF — a lifeline for a government staggering under debt repayments, dwindling reserves, and a suffocating fiscal deficit. On paper, this appears to be salvation. In reality, the IMF’s Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Report (November 2025) makes clear that the country’s economic malaise is not simply about liquidity. It is about capture.
Analytically, the report is blunt: corruption in Pakistan is described as “persistent and widespread”. This is notably candid, departing from the usual language of polite diplomacy. It describes a system where governance has been hollowed out, institutions serve the connected instead of the citizen, and resources — whether borrowed or earned — disappear into inefficiency and rent-seeking.
The IMF has publicly stated what Pakistanis have long known: the core problem is not the absence of funds and resources, but the presence of a rigged state. This, economic and governance experts argue, is a formal indictment.
The report contains bitter facts. The report’s section related to “state dominance’ is derogatory. Pakistan’s economy is not merely inefficient; it is engineered to privilege insiders, especially those who are considered sacred goats. For decades, the State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), many of them loss-making, continue to drain public resources while shielding themselves from accountability. The regulatory frameworks are opaque, designed less to facilitate competition than to entrench monopolies for “privileged actors.”
As per the report, this is not accidental but systemic since the system has consistently resisted checks and balances from the regulatory framework. Usually, when SOEs operate without transparency, when licenses and tariffs are manipulated to favour the few influentials, the result is not just inefficiency — it is exclusion or, more literally, Exemption from legal actions. The ordinary citizens pay higher prices for electricity, gas, and transport, while politically connected firms thrive under protectionist umbrellas, bypassing all the legal formalities.
One will be shocked to know that the language used by the IMF on ‘state capture’ is critical here, as revealed by the report. Pakistan’s governance problem is not about weak institutions alone; it is about institutions weaponised to serve narrow interests that hold the power. In such a system, reform is actively sabotaged as practice is decades old .
As regards the taxation system, the report’s shocking findings on taxation expose the heart of Pakistan’s fiscal crisis due to systemic failure. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) operative procedure is “considerable authority and limited oversight”, presiding over a tax system that is very “complex and opaque. According to the IMF, Pakistan faces serious corruption and governance challenges, with weaknesses in fiscal governance and market regulation contributing to problems such as smuggling and under-invoicing in customs administration.
This is all because of the tax-to-GDP ratio that shockingly remains the lowest in the region. The budget cannot be fixed when the revenue authority itself is compromised or plagued by rampant corruption. The government cannot build fiscal space when the system is designed to leak or has loopholes caused by incompetence and graft.
For Pakistanis, this means a paradox where the state demands more in indirect taxes: increased costs for fuel, electricity, and everyday consumption items, while failing to effectively tax the wealthy and politically connected. It is often public sector employees who contribute the maximum chunk of tax revenue. The burden shifts downward, eroding trust in the very idea of fair taxation.
Pakistan’s governance crisis is not new. What is new is the IMF’s willingness to diagnose it openly. By naming corruption as “persistent and widespread”, by identifying state capture as systemic, the report strips away the illusion that money alone can fix the problem
Imagine a typical household in Karachi: the head of the family works as a schoolteacher, the main breadwinner, struggling to make ends meet. Each month, the family allocates a sizeable portion of their income to taxes embedded in utility bills and prices of daily commodities. When electricity tariffs rise due to the inefficiencies of SOEs, the family’s budget is strained, forcing cuts on essentials like education and healthcare — decisions that have long-term impacts on their children’s futures.
For investors, the situation is clear that there is no ease of doing business in Pakistan. The message is equally corrosive. Business firms, especially multinational concerns, perceive Pakistan’s fiscal system not as a framework for growth, but as a mechanism for extraction. This environment is really alarming, prompting multinational firms to reconsider their investments or leave the country.
The IMF report is also an eye-opener for the judiciary, as it is perceived as corrupt, fragmented and clogged with backlogs when people wait years, even generations, for the final verdict. The contract enforcement is relatively weak, property rights are also insecure, and the judicial decisions are often influenced by political or financial pressure. After the 26th and 27th amendments, the judiciary has been enfeebled by the political elite.
Foreign direct investment cannot flow into a country where contracts are unenforceable and property can be seized without remedy. Domestic entrepreneurship cannot thrive when disputes drag on for years in courts seen as compromised.
Rule of law seems to be an abstract principle, though it is the foundation of markets for safety and security or peace of mind. Without it, Pakistan’s economy is not simply inefficient — it is uninvestable.
Conceivably, the most sobering section of the report is its analysis of anti-corruption institutions. NAB and the FIA are described as politically influenced, uncoordinated, and lacking credibility.
The report also raises the hardest question: can these institutions that are accused of benefiting from the status quo be trusted to dismantle it? When anti-graft agencies are weaponised against political opponents rather than systemic corruption, reform becomes a theatre or a distant dream.
The IMF calls for “comprehensive and sequenced reform”, which seems to be a distant dream given the existing hybrid setup. But reform requires agents of change. If the NAB and FIA are compromised, if the judiciary is distrusted, if the FBR is opaque, then who will implement reform? The danger is crystal clear: Pakistan risks entering yet another cycle in which funds are disbursed, conditions are promised and structural change is deferred by a powerful political elite.
For the average Pakistani, the implications are stark. The $7 billion EFF may stabilise reserves temporarily, but it will not lower electricity bills distorted by SOE inefficiency, as the power tariffs will go up or even experience elastic inflation. It will not fix a tax system that punishes consumption while rewarding evasion. It will not unclog courts where justice is delayed and denied.
For global investors, the message is equally sobering. Pakistan is not merely a high-risk market; it is a captured state. Without visible progress on governance, the EFF is not a bridge to reform — it is a bandage on a wound that continues to fester.
The IMF report ends with a call for “concrete and visible progress” to restore public trust. That phrase should be read not as technocratic jargon but as a warning. Pakistan’s crisis is not only economic; it is existential.
A state that cannot tax fairly, adjudicate disputes credibly or regulate transparently cannot sustain itself. A society where corruption is “persistent and widespread” cannot build legitimacy. An economy where capture is systemic cannot grow inclusively.
The $7 billion lifeline buys time. But time without reform is wasted. The choice before Pakistan is stark: dismantle the governance trap or remain trapped in cycles of bailout and breakdown.
Pakistan’s governance crisis is not new. What is new is the IMF’s willingness to diagnose it openly. By naming corruption as “persistent and widespread”, by identifying state capture as systemic, the report strips away the illusion that money alone can fix the problem.
While essential, the EFF is insufficient. The facility will be viewed as another lost opportunity rather than a turning point if full and sequential change is not implemented, along with credible progress on taxation, the rule of law, and anti-corruption.
The rot beneath the economy is governance. Unless Pakistan confronts it, the bandage will peel away, and the wound will deepen.
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Introduction: A Nation’s Mirror Moment
In a country where public trust in institutions is often fragile, the release of the National Corruption Perception Survey (NCPS) 2025 by Transparency International Pakistan offers more than just statistics—it’s a mirror held up to the nation’s governance, ethics, and accountability. Conducted across 20 districts with nearly 4,000 respondents, the survey captures the pulse of Pakistan’s citizens on corruption, economic hardship, and institutional integrity.
This year’s findings are both sobering and instructive. From the police being perceived as the most corrupt sector to widespread dissatisfaction with anti-corruption efforts, the NCPS 2025 paints a picture of systemic challenges that demand urgent policy attention. But it also reveals areas of hope—citizens advocating for stronger whistleblower protections, digital reforms, and transparency in charitable institutions.
Let’s unpack the key takeaways and explore what they mean for Pakistan’s future.
1. Police and Procurement: The Persistent Pillars of Public Distrust
The headline finding is stark: 24% of respondents nationally perceive the police as the most corrupt sector, continuing a trend that has persisted since 2002. This perception is highest in Punjab (34%), followed by Balochistan (22%), Sindh (21%), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (20%).
Closely trailing is Tender and Procurement, with 16% nationally citing it as a major corruption hotspot. Balochistan again leads in concern (23%), highlighting regional disparities in governance and oversight.
The Judiciary, often seen as the last bastion of justice, ranks third in perceived corruption (14%), with KP (18%) and Punjab (17%) showing the highest levels of concern.
🟡 Takeaway: These findings underscore the need for police reform, transparent procurement systems, and judicial accountability. Without restoring trust in these foundational institutions, broader governance reforms will struggle to gain traction.
2. Bribery Encounters: A Mixed Bag of Progress and Persistence
Encouragingly, 66% of Pakistanis reported not facing a situation where they felt compelled to offer a bribe. However, the provincial breakdown reveals troubling disparities:
- Sindh: 46% reported paying bribes
- Punjab: 39%
- Balochistan: 31%
- Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 20%
🟡 Takeaway: While the national average suggests progress, the high bribery rates in Sindh and Punjab point to localized governance failures. Targeted anti-bribery campaigns and digital service delivery could help reduce these encounters.
3. Economic Strain: Purchasing Power in Decline
A majority of respondents (57%) reported a decline in their purchasing power over the past year. This economic stress is most acute in KP (72%) and Punjab (60%), while Balochistan (43%) showed the least decline.
🟡 Takeaway: Economic hardship often correlates with increased vulnerability to corruption. Strengthening social safety nets and price control mechanisms is essential to protect citizens from exploitative practices.
4. IMF and FATF: A Qualified Vote of Confidence
When asked about the government’s success in stabilizing the economy through the IMF agreement and FATF grey list exit, responses were cautiously optimistic:
- 40% partially agree
- 18% fully agree
- 42% do not agree
🟡 Takeaway: While international benchmarks have been met, domestic perception remains skeptical. The government must translate macroeconomic wins into tangible benefits for citizens to build trust.
5. Root Causes of Corruption: Accountability, Transparency, and Delay
The top three perceived drivers of corruption are:
- Lack of accountability (15%)
- Lack of transparency and access to information (15%)
- Delays in corruption case decisions (14%)
🟡 Takeaway: These are solvable problems. Strengthening Right to Information (RTI) laws, fast-tracking corruption cases, and independent oversight can address these root causes effectively.
6. Provincial Governments: The Most Corrupt Tier?
A significant 59% of respondents believe provincial governments are more corrupt than local governments. This perception is strongest in Punjab (70%), followed by Balochistan (58%), KP (55%), and Sindh (54%).
🟡 Takeaway: Decentralization without accountability breeds corruption. Provincial governments must adopt performance audits, citizen feedback loops, and transparency dashboards to rebuild credibility.
7. Anti-Corruption Bodies: Accountability Starts at the Top
A resounding 78% of respondents believe that anti-corruption bodies like NAB and FIA should be held accountable. The top reasons include:
- Lack of transparency in investigations (35%)
- Absence of independent oversight (33%)
- Misuse of powers for political victimization (32%)
🟡 Takeaway: Reforming anti-corruption bodies is non-negotiable. Establishing parliamentary oversight, publishing investigation outcomes, and protecting whistleblowers are key steps forward.
8. Healthcare Sector: A Deeply Corrupted Lifeline
The NCPS 2025 reveals alarming insights into healthcare corruption:
- 67% believe corruption in healthcare has a very high impact on lives
- 38% identify hospitals as the most corrupt site
- 23% cite doctors, and 21% cite pharmaceuticals
Provincial breakdown:
- Hospitals: Sindh (49%), KP (46%), Balochistan (32%), Punjab (26%)
- Doctors: Balochistan (35%), Punjab (21%)
- Pharmaceuticals: Punjab (30%), KP (21%)
🟡 Takeaway: Healthcare corruption is not just unethical—it’s deadly. Citizens demand:
- Stricter pharma policies (23%)
- Ban on private practice by public doctors (20%)
- Strengthened regulatory bodies (16%)
9. Political Finance and Advertising: Citizens Want Clean Campaigns
- 83% of respondents support either banning or regulating business funding to political parties
- 55% support a complete ban on political names and images in government ads
🟡 Takeaway: The public is calling for cleaner politics. Enforcing campaign finance laws and neutral government advertising can reduce undue influence and promote fair governance.
10. Whistleblower Protection: The Missing Shield
Only 42% of respondents feel safe reporting corruption, even if strong whistleblower laws were in place. This reflects a deep trust deficit.
🟡 Takeaway: Pakistan must urgently pass and implement robust whistleblower protection laws, including anonymity guarantees, legal immunity, and reward mechanisms.
11. Awareness Gap: Reporting Channels Remain Invisible
A staggering 70% of respondents are unaware of any official channels to report corruption. Among the 30% who are aware, only 43% have ever reported an incident.
🟡 Takeaway: This is a communications failure. Governments must launch awareness campaigns, simplify reporting mechanisms, and integrate digital platforms for citizen engagement.
12. Charitable Institutions: Integrity Under Scrutiny
- 51% believe tax-exempt charitable bodies should not charge fees
- 53% want public disclosure of donor names and donation amounts
🟡 Takeaway: Transparency must extend to the nonprofit sector. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) should mandate financial disclosures and fee audits for all tax-exempt entities.
Conclusion: A Blueprint for Reform
The NCPS 2025 is more than a diagnostic—it’s a blueprint for reform. It reveals a citizenry that is aware, engaged, and demanding change. From police reform and healthcare integrity to political finance and whistleblower protection, the survey outlines actionable priorities.
But the real question is: Will policymakers listen?
Pakistan stands at a crossroads. The public has spoken. Now it’s time for institutions to respond—not with rhetoric, but with results.
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Events
🌍 Davos 2026: The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting Sets the Stage for Global Transformation
From January 19 to 23, 2026, the alpine town of Davos, Switzerland, will once again become the epicenter of global dialogue as the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting—widely known as the Davos Forum—brings together more than 2,500 influential leaders from across the globe. This flagship event is not just a gathering; it’s a strategic crucible where the future of our interconnected world is debated, shaped, and often reimagined.
🔹 Who’s Coming to Davos?
The attendee list reads like a who’s who of global influence:
- Heads of State and Government Ministers
- CEOs of Fortune 500 companies and tech innovators
- Renowned academics and thought leaders
- Media powerhouses and civil society champions
This diverse mix ensures that the conversations are not siloed but instead reflect the multifaceted nature of today’s challenges—from climate resilience and digital transformation to geopolitical tensions and inclusive growth.
🔹 What’s on the Agenda?
The 2026 theme centers on “Public-Private Cooperation for a Resilient Future.” With the world facing compounding crises—economic volatility, climate emergencies, AI disruption, and widening inequality—the Davos Forum aims to forge actionable pathways through collaboration.
Key focus areas include:
- Global Economic Stability: Tackling inflation, debt, and trade imbalances
- AI and Digital Governance: Building ethical frameworks for emerging technologies
- Climate Action and Energy Transition: Accelerating decarbonization and green finance
- Geopolitical Dialogue: Navigating multipolar tensions and regional conflicts
- Social Inclusion: Empowering youth, women, and marginalized communities through policy innovation
🔹 Why Davos Matters More Than Ever
In a world often fragmented by ideology and competition, Davos remains a rare platform where dialogue precedes division. It’s where CEOs and activists sit side by side, where presidents listen to professors, and where ideas transcend borders.
As the 2026 meeting unfolds, expect bold announcements, unexpected alliances, and a renewed commitment to shared prosperity and sustainable progress. Whether you’re a policymaker, entrepreneur, or global citizen, the outcomes of Davos will ripple far beyond the Swiss Alps.
Stay tuned for daily updates, keynote highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights as we cover the pulse of Davos 2026.
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🎬 Opening Scene: Hollywood Meets Wall Street
Imagine a high-stakes Hollywood showdown where tech heirs, political insiders, and media titans clash over empires built on blockbuster dreams and streaming battles. David Ellison, the visionary leader of Paramount Skydance, has thrust his company into the spotlight with a bold $108 billion hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).
This audacious move shakes up “Paramount Warner Bros” merger dreams and sends Paramount stock and WBD stock into volatile swings. Backed by Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners and deep-pocketed sovereign funds, this Paramount hostile takeover saga could redefine who owns Paramount and the future of entertainment itself.
👤 David Ellison: From Tech Scion to Media Mogul
- Son of Oracle founder Larry Ellison, David Ellison grew up surrounded by Silicon Valley’s wealth and ambition.
- He built Skydance Media into a powerhouse behind hits like Top Gun: Maverick and Mission Impossible.
- Now, as chairman and CEO of the merged Paramount Skydance, Ellison holds full voting control through family trusts and investment vehicles.
Ellison’s strategy is clear: aggressive expansion. Recent moves include:
- Greenlighting Top Gun 3 and new Star Trek installments.
- Securing billion-dollar sports streaming rights.
- Snapping up talent deals to rival Netflix and Disney.
🏛 Who Owns Paramount? The Ellison Era
Ownership of Paramount has shifted dramatically:
- Ellison family: 50%
- RedBird Capital: 20%
- Public shareholders: 30%
Shari Redstone’s reign ended with the merger, as she divested National Amusements, Paramount’s former controlling shareholder. The Ellisons now dictate who owns Paramount, positioning themselves as the new power brokers in Hollywood.
📈 Paramount Stock: Riding the Hostile Takeover Wave
Paramount stock (PARA) has become a rollercoaster:
- Current price: ~$13.37
- 52-week change: +21.61%
- Analyst targets: $11.50–$16.91
The hostile takeover announcement spiked investor interest, with shares jumping 36% in one session. Analysts warn of volatility, but Ellison’s bold vision keeps optimism alive.
💥 WBD Stock in the Crosshairs
Warner Bros Discovery faces a seismic threat:
- Paramount Skydance launched a $77.9–$108 billion hostile takeover at $30 per share.
- WBD stock currently trades around $27.30, with a market cap of $67.47B.
- Analysts project targets between $19.85–$23.02, reflecting uncertainty.
Ellison argues his bid offers smoother regulatory approval compared to Netflix, which dominates 43% of the streaming market.
🕴 Jared Kushner Enters the Fray
Adding political intrigue, Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners has joined the Paramount bid:
- $40 billion in equity committed.
- Backed by sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, and the UAE.
- Debt financing from Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo could reach $54 billion.
Kushner’s involvement signals a fusion of political capital and financial firepower, raising eyebrows across Wall Street and Washington.
🔗 Paramount Warner Bros Merger Rumors
The “Paramount Warner Bros” whispers have evolved into a full-scale assault. Paramount’s bid targets WBD’s prized assets:
- CNN
- HBO Max
- TBS
- HGTV
Together, these could form a colossus rivaling Netflix and Disney. Paramount promises more competition, better content, and stronger theaters.
🌐 Industry Shockwaves: What This Hostile Takeover Means
If successful, the Paramount hostile takeover could reshape the media landscape:
- Streaming consolidation: Paramount + WBD would challenge Big Tech streamers.
- Stock impacts: PARA could soar, WBD shareholders gain premiums.
- Job cuts: $500M–$6B in synergies likely mean layoffs.
- Creative boost: Imagine Star Trek meeting DC superheroes under one roof.
💰 Financing Muscle
The bid’s $108B war chest is formidable:
- Ellison Trust’s $252B Oracle collateral.
- RedBird Capital’s non-voting equity.
- Kushner’s sovereign fund backing.
This mirrors Skydance’s earlier $8B Paramount deal, blending tech wealth with Hollywood grit.
🔮 What Happens Next?
Paramount urges WBD shareholders to act, accusing the board of favoring Netflix. Ellison vows to “complete what we began,” eyeing a Q1 2026 close.
Investors should monitor:
- PARA stock around $13.
- WBD stock around $27.
- Regulatory hurdles from FCC and antitrust bodies.
If victorious, who owns Paramount expands to Warner Bros, birthing a new entertainment empire.
📊 Quick Snapshot: Paramount vs WBD
| Metric | Paramount (PARA) | WBD |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | ~$13.37 | ~$27.30 |
| 52-Week Change | +21.61% | -0.06% |
| Market Cap | ~$9.5B | ~$67.47B |
| Analyst Target | $11.50–$16.91 | $19.85–$23.02 |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | 139.02 |
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