Pakistan’s SBP Reserves Climb to $16.2 Billion: Analyzing the Latest Forex Update and Its Economic Implications

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan edged up to $16.20 billion in the week ended February 13, 2026 — a number that, while modest in isolation, tells a larger story of structural stabilization, IMF discipline, and a country carefully rebuilding its financial credibility after one of the most severe balance-of-payments crises in its modern history.

A Week-on-Week Gain That Signals Quiet Confidence

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported on Thursday that its foreign exchange reserves increased by $19 million during the week ended February 13, 2026, reaching $16,196.9 million ($16.20 billion). Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves — which include SBP holdings and net reserves held by commercial banks — stood at $21,301.5 million ($21.30 billion). Of that combined figure, commercial banks held $5,104.6 million ($5.10 billion), a decline of approximately $92.3 million week-on-week, partially offsetting the central bank’s gain.

The weekly increase is unremarkable in size but remarkable in what it represents: the ninth consecutive week of positive movement in SBP-held reserves. Strip away the noise, and a clear trend emerges — Pakistan is steadily, if cautiously, replenishing the reserve buffers it nearly exhausted during the 2022–23 crisis.

The Weekly Data in Context: A Reserve Trajectory Table

The latest SBP reserves update gains considerably more meaning when viewed against the recent weekly trajectory:

Dates approximate based on SBP release sequence. Source: State Bank of Pakistan

The late-November spike — a $1.3 billion jump — represents the single most consequential data point in this series. The SBP confirmed that the weekly increase was mainly due to the receipt of SDR 914 million, equivalent to about $1.2 billion, from the IMF under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Everything since then has been organic accumulation: modest but persistent gains averaging roughly $20–25 million per week, a cadence that speaks to improved external inflows rather than one-off injections.

The IMF Scaffolding: What’s Holding the Recovery Up

No serious analysis of Pakistan’s latest SBP reserves update can ignore the role of the International Monetary Fund in engineering the turnaround. Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth, with key priorities including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening the tax base. Gross reserves stood at $14.5 billion at end-FY25, up from $9.4 billion a year earlier, and are projected to continue to be rebuilt in FY26 and over the medium term.

That $9.4 billion-to-$16.2 billion trajectory over roughly eighteen months is striking. But it would be naive to frame it purely as success. Much of the gain reflects the $7 billion IMF program’s front-loaded disbursements — the IMF’s total commitment to Pakistan comprises $5.2 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and $1.4 billion through the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, aimed at strengthening the country’s foreign exchange reserves. A third review is scheduled for March 2026, which, if cleared, would entitle Pakistan to an additional ~$1.04 billion under the EFF and ~$211 million through the RSF. The market is watching.

The IMF has not been ungenerous with its praise, but it has also not been vague about its expectations. IMF officials noted that Pakistan’s reform implementation under the EFF has helped preserve macroeconomic stability, with real GDP growth accelerating, inflation expectations remaining anchored, and fiscal and external imbalances continuing to moderate. The subtext is clear: continued disbursements are contingent on continued discipline.

Remittances: The Underrated Engine

Beneath the IMF headline, a quieter but arguably more sustainable driver has been building momentum: overseas remittances. Pakistan’s remittances are projected to exceed $41 billion in 2026, marking a notable increase from $38 billion last year. Remittances currently account for roughly 7–8% of Pakistan’s GDP — a lifeline that, unlike IMF tranches, does not add to the country’s external debt stock.

January 2026 reinforced this picture dramatically. Pakistan received $3.5 billion in foreign remittances in January 2026, and the country recorded a current account surplus of $121 million in January, compared to a current account deficit of $393 million in the same month last year. That is not merely a number — it is a reversal. A year ago, Pakistan was hemorrhaging foreign exchange; today, it is generating a current account surplus. The improvement was attributed to stronger remittance inflows and a rebound in exports, which crossed the $3 billion mark for the first time in January to reach $3.061 billion, compared to $2.27 billion in December 2025.

With Ramazan beginning in late February and Eid ul-Fitr approaching in late March, seasonal remittance spikes — historically the largest of any year — could provide another meaningful uplift to reserves in the coming weeks. Overseas Pakistanis tend to send significantly more money home ahead of major religious observances, and given the scale of the diaspora across the Gulf, the UK, and North America, this annual inflow is no trivial variable.

Pakistan Economy Recovery: The Macro Backdrop

Understanding the latest Pakistan total liquid reserves 2026 data requires contextualizing it within a broader macroeconomic stabilization story that, just two years ago, looked anything but inevitable.

In 2022–23, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to dangerously low levels — at one point covering less than one month of imports. The rupee collapsed. Inflation surged above 38%. The IMF had to be called in under emergency conditions. Pakistan’s import cover — a key indicator of external sector strength — stood at less than one month during the 2022–23 crisis period; it has since climbed to approximately 2.5 months. At the current trajectory, the SBP’s own upgraded forecast of reaching $17.8 billion by June 2026 would push import cover comfortably above three months — the IMF’s benchmark for adequate reserve buffers.

The IMF projects Pakistan’s current account deficit for FY25 at about $0.2 billion, or 0.1 percent of GDP, helped by resilient exports and a stronger remittance outlook, as improved macro and FX stability has supported a rebound in remittance inflows through formal channels. These projections, calibrated conservatively, now look increasingly optimistic given January’s current account surplus.

However, analysts caution that the road ahead is not without hazard. External debt repayments remain elevated. Import demand — deliberately suppressed during the crisis — is beginning to recover as the economy grows, which will widen the current account deficit over the medium term. Over the medium term, the current account deficit is expected to widen modestly to around 1 percent of GDP as imports rebound. Sustaining the reserve build-up will require export growth and continued structural reforms, not just remittance windfalls and IMF tranches.

The Commercial Bank Divergence: A Nuance Worth Noting

One detail in Thursday’s release deserves closer scrutiny. While SBP-held reserves rose by $19.1 million, net foreign reserves held by commercial banks fell by $92.3 million to $5,104.6 million. Total liquid reserves consequently declined week-on-week from $21.374 billion to $21.301 billion — a net reduction of $73.2 million.

This divergence matters. Commercial bank reserves are typically more volatile, influenced by import payments, letter of credit settlements, and short-term capital movements. Their decline in the same week that the central bank gained suggests that private sector foreign currency demand — for trade financing and external payments — is picking up. This is broadly consistent with an economy that is beginning to return to a more normal import cycle. It is not a red flag. But it is a reminder that the $16.2 billion SBP headline and the $21.3 billion total liquid figure tell somewhat different stories about where Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves impact on economy is most acutely felt.

Bond Market Sentiment and Foreign Inflows

Pakistan’s bond market has undergone a dramatic repricing over the past twelve months. After years of yields in double digits — partly reflecting credit risk premiums that placed Pakistani sovereign debt in near-junk territory — foreign inflows into Pakistan bonds have been recovering as investor confidence improves. The IMF program’s credibility, declining inflation, and a more stable rupee have all contributed.

Pakistan’s economy grew an estimated 2.4 percent in FY25, up from 0.3 percent in the previous fiscal year, as inflation cooled and the rupee stabilized after a steep depreciation cycle in 2022–23. The improvement in external buffers is likely to boost investor sentiment at a time when the government is stepping up efforts to attract foreign direct investment and privatize state-owned enterprises.

For global investors scanning South Asian sovereign debt, Pakistan presents a complicated but increasingly interesting risk-reward proposition. The EFF program provides a backstop. The reserve trajectory is improving. But political risk, energy sector liabilities, and the scale of pending structural reforms — particularly on taxation and state-owned enterprise privatization — remain substantive concerns that no amount of weekly reserve data can fully paper over.

What This Means for Everyday Pakistanis

The relevance of the latest SBP foreign exchange reserves weekly data extends far beyond financial markets. For ordinary Pakistanis, reserve levels are a proxy for economic stability in the most direct sense.

When reserves are low, the rupee weakens, import costs rise, and inflation — particularly in food and energy — accelerates. The 2022–23 crisis saw petrol shortages and cooking oil price spikes that hit the country’s most economically vulnerable citizens hardest. Conversely, as reserves strengthen, the SBP has greater capacity to manage exchange rate volatility, facilitating the import of raw materials for industry, medicines, and consumer goods at more stable prices.

With remittances hitting $3.5 billion in January alone, families receiving overseas transfers are also seeing more purchasing power — dollars converted at a more stable exchange rate translate into more rupees, more household spending, and more local economic activity. This virtuous cycle, fragile as it remains, is more visible now than at any point in the past three years.

Forward Outlook: The $17.8 Billion Target and the Risks

The SBP’s own forecast — foreign exchange reserves reaching $17.8 billion by June 2026, up from a previous estimate of $17.5 billion — follows a controlled current account deficit and the realisation of planned official inflows. Achieving that target from the current $16.2 billion would require an additional $1.6 billion over roughly four months, or approximately $400 million per month. Given recent monthly inflow dynamics — remittances, IMF disbursements pending the March review, and bilateral inflows — the target appears achievable, but not guaranteed.

Key Data Summary (Week Ended February 13, 2026)

Source: State Bank of Pakistan official weekly release, February 19, 2026

Key risks to the upside scenario include: a deterioration in the IMF relationship that delays the March 2026 review; an oil price spike that widens the import bill; or a global risk-off episode that triggers capital outflows from emerging markets. On the upside, a successful Eurobond issuance or Panda bond placement — discussed in IMF program documents — could provide a step-change in the reserve buffer.

Conclusion: Rebuilding Credibility, One Week at a Time

Pakistan’s $16.2 billion in SBP-held reserves and $21.3 billion in total liquid foreign exchange reserves are, in the grand sweep of emerging-market economics, modest numbers. They pale against India’s $640+ billion reserve war chest, or even Bangladesh’s more insulated external position. But for a country that was, less than three years ago, teetering on the edge of a sovereign default scenario, they represent something more important than a number: they represent the painstaking reconstruction of credibility.

That credibility — with the IMF, with international bond investors, with the Pakistani diaspora deciding whether to remit through formal channels — is what ultimately underpins the reserve trajectory. The weekly $19 million gain is a data point. The story it belongs to is a long-term stabilization project with no guarantees, but with more reason for cautious optimism today than at any point since the crisis began.

The question for policymakers, investors, and analysts alike is not whether Pakistan has turned a corner — the evidence suggests it has. The real question is whether it can hold that corner while accelerating the structural reforms that transform a reserve recovery into durable, private-sector-led growth.

The answer to that question will not arrive in a weekly reserve bulletin. But every Thursday, as the SBP releases its latest figures, it offers a small, incremental clue.