How to Make Pakistan’s Budget 2026-27 Debt-Proof and Surplus: Well-Researched and Expert Recommendations

At the beginning of 2026, Pakistan stands at one of the most consequential economic crossroads in its 78-year history. The Ministry of Finance’s Budget Call Circular for FY2026-27, issued in late January, sets the stage for what could be either a transformative fiscal turnaround or another missed opportunity. With public debt ballooning to 70.7% of GDP—far exceeding the 60% statutory ceiling—and the government preparing its next annual budget amid intense IMF scrutiny under the Extended Fund Facility, Pakistan’s economic managers face a deceptively simple question: Can prudent fiscal engineering convert chronic deficits into sustainable surpluses while simultaneously reducing the debt burden?

The answer, according to a growing chorus of international economists, multilateral institutions, and domestic policy experts, is a qualified yes—but only if Pakistan adopts a comprehensive, evidence-based reform agenda that goes far beyond cosmetic adjustments. This isn’t about austerity for its own sake; it’s about rebuilding fiscal sovereignty in an era when Pakistan’s economic sovereignty is sharply shrinking.

The Debt Trap: Pakistan’s Current Fiscal Reality

To understand where Pakistan must go, we must first comprehend where it stands. The numbers paint a sobering picture. As of December 2025, Pakistan’s total public debt reached Rs 81.3 trillion, representing 70.7% of GDP—a staggering 14.7 percentage points above the legal threshold mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation (FRDL) Act. This breach isn’t marginal; it represents Rs 16.8 trillion in excess borrowing that Parliament never authorized.

The composition of this debt tells its own story. Domestic debt dominates at Rs 54.5 trillion, fueled by government securities—Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs), Treasury bills, and Sukuk—that crowd out private sector credit and keep interest rates artificially elevated. External debt, though smaller at $91.8 billion, carries its own vulnerabilities: more than half comes from multilateral development institutions including the IMF, while bilateral creditors—led by China under CPEC arrangements—account for another 26%.

The FY2025-26 budget, presented in June 2025, projected 4.2% GDP growth and targeted a 2.4% primary surplus—the first meaningful surplus in over a decade. Yet achieving this surplus came at a cost: development spending collapsed to just 0.2% of GDP in the first half of FY2026, hitting construction workers and the poor hardest, according to the World Bank’s Pakistan Development Update.

The Numbers That Matter

Fiscal Indicator	FY2024-25 Actual	FY2025-26 Target	FY2026-27 Projection
GDP Growth (%)	2.7	4.2	5.1
Inflation (%)	23.4	7.5	6.5
Fiscal Deficit (% GDP)	6.8	3.9	2.8 (reform scenario)
Primary Balance (% GDP)	-0.4	2.4	3.2 (reform scenario)
Public Debt (% GDP)	68.0	70.7	68.5 (optimistic)
Tax-to-GDP Ratio (%)	9.6	10.2	12.5 (target)

Sources: Ministry of Finance Pakistan, State Bank of Pakistan, IMF projections

The IMF Factor: Between Flexibility and Discipline

Pakistan’s fiscal future is inseparable from its relationship with the International Monetary Fund. The $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) approved in September 2024, combined with the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) for climate adaptation, provides Pakistan with critical breathing room—but at a price.

Recent reporting indicates Pakistan is seeking IMF flexibility on budget 2026-27 to accommodate political realities: relief for the salaried class, reduced real estate transaction taxes, and lower power tariffs to boost manufacturing competitiveness. The IMF’s second review, completed in December 2025, released approximately $1.2 billion in funding, but mission chief Nathan Porter emphasized that “fiscal consolidation must continue” and warned against backsliding on revenue mobilization.

The tension is real. IMF staff have proposed taxing high-end pensions to fund salaried-class relief—a politically toxic move in a country where civil-military establishments dominate governance. They’ve also pushed for phasing out minimum support prices for agricultural commodities by June 2026, threatening the livelihoods of millions of farmers. These are the kinds of structural reforms that multilateral institutions love on spreadsheets but that governments struggle to implement in democracies.

Yet there’s room for cautious optimism. The IMF has shown flexibility on climate-related spending under the RSF framework, and Pakistan’s achievement of a primary surplus in H1 FY2026—6.6% of GDP, according to World Bank data—demonstrates fiscal capacity when political will exists.

Eight Expert Strategies for a Debt-Proof, Surplus Budget

Building on insights from World Bank economists, IMF staff assessments, and Pakistan’s own economic think tanks, here are the evidence-based recommendations that could transform Pakistan’s fiscal trajectory:

1. Tax Base Expansion Through Digital Integration

Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.6% is among the lowest globally, half of what emerging market peers achieve. The solution isn’t higher rates—it’s digital enforcement. Pakistan economic reforms 2026 must prioritize:

• Mandatory Digital Transaction Trails: Require all business transactions above PKR 50,000 to flow through banking channels with automated tax deduction. Turkey and Kenya achieved 3-4% GDP increases in revenue through similar measures.
• AI-Powered Tax Compliance: Deploy machine learning algorithms to cross-reference income declarations with spending patterns visible in digital payments, property purchases, and international travel. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has pilots showing 40% improvements in detection of under-reporting.
• Agricultural Income Taxation: Despite contributing 19% of GDP, agriculture contributes less than 1% of tax revenue. A progressive agricultural income tax, starting at PKR 1.5 million annual income, could generate PKR 300-400 billion annually while maintaining political viability by exempting smallholders.

2. CPEC 2.0: From Infrastructure to Export-Led Growth

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is evolving. CPEC 2.0 emphasizes export-oriented manufacturing through Special Economic Zones (SEZs), which have expanded from 7 to 44 since 2019. Pakistan export-led growth 2026 requires:

• SEZ Fiscal Sweeteners with Performance Conditions: Offer 10-year tax holidays only to exporters who export 70%+ of production, creating real dollar inflows rather than import-substitution industries that worsen the trade deficit.
• Joint Ventures Over Turnkey Projects: Encourage technology transfer by requiring Chinese investors to partner with Pakistani firms at 40% local equity minimum. This builds domestic capabilities and reduces profit repatriation.
• Targeted Sectors: Prioritize high-value manufacturing—electric vehicles, solar panels, pharmaceuticals, and engineering goods—rather than low-margin textiles. Analysis from the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) shows these sectors have 3-5x higher GDP multipliers.

3. Energy Sector Rationalization: Cutting the Circular Debt

Pakistan’s circular debt in the power sector exceeds PKR 2.4 trillion, costing the government PKR 450+ billion annually in interest. Reducing Pakistan public debt requires confronting this monster:

• Cost-Reflective Tariffs with Smart Subsidies: Eliminate blanket electricity subsidies (which benefit the wealthy disproportionately) and replace them with means-tested support for households consuming under 200 units monthly. This could save PKR 400 billion while protecting the vulnerable.
• Privatize Distribution Companies (DISCOs): Pakistan’s state-owned electricity distributors lose PKR 400 billion annually through theft, incompetence, and political interference. Privatization, with binding efficiency commitments (as successful in India’s Delhi model), can transform losses into revenues.
• Renegotiate Independent Power Producer (IPP) Contracts: The take-or-pay capacity payments draining PKR 1.5 trillion annually were signed under different economic conditions. A World Bank-facilitated renegotiation, offering upfront capital in exchange for reduced future obligations, could save PKR 200-300 billion annually.

4. Green Bonds for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure

Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate shocks—devastating floods in 2022 and 2025 caused losses exceeding $30 billion—necessitates massive infrastructure investment. Rather than adding to conventional debt, Pakistan fiscal surplus strategies should include:

• Sovereign Green Bonds: Issue $2-3 billion in international green bonds targeting ESG-focused investors. Pakistan’s first $500 million Sukuk issuance in 2021 was oversubscribed; green bonds carry similar investor appetite with potentially 50-75 basis points lower yields than conventional debt.
• Climate Budget Tagging: The FY2026-27 Budget Call Circular mandates tagging all expenditures by climate impact. Institutionalize this with dedicated green budget lines that ring-fence revenue (carbon levies, environmental taxes) for climate adaptation, creating fiscal transparency that attracts concessional climate finance.
• Disaster Risk Insurance Pools: Partner with the African Risk Capacity model to create a South Asian disaster insurance mechanism. By pooling resources, Pakistan could access rapid post-disaster funding without emergency IMF borrowing.

5. Subsidy Rationalization: From Blanket to Targeted

Pakistan spends approximately 3% of GDP on subsidies—energy, agriculture, and food—but World Bank research shows 60% of these benefits flow to the richest 40% of households. Pakistan debt crisis solutions include:

• Digital Biometric Subsidy Delivery: Leverage Pakistan’s NADRA database (180 million biometric registrations) to deliver targeted cash transfers rather than price subsidies. Brazil’s Bolsa Família saved 0.5% of GDP while improving poverty outcomes.
• Phase Out Petroleum Subsidies: The PKR 50/liter petroleum levy still falls short of full cost recovery. A gradual 18-month increase to PKR 75/liter, paired with increased Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) transfers, can save PKR 300 billion while protecting the poor.

6. State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Reform and Privatization

Pakistan International Airlines, Pakistan Steel Mills, and dozens of other SOEs lose PKR 500+ billion annually. Pakistan IMF budget flexibility depends partly on demonstrating SOE reform:

• Fast-Track Privatization: Sell PIA, DISCOs, and smaller SOEs within 24 months using investment-first models (accepting lower initial prices for guaranteed investment/efficiency commitments). Turkey’s Turkish Airlines privatization generated $6.3 billion and turned losses into profits within three years.
• Performance Contracts for Strategic SOEs: For entities like Pakistan Railways that serve social functions, implement binding performance contracts with automatic management replacement for non-compliance. Kenya’s Kenya Railways turnaround offers a template.

7. Remittances Monetization and Diaspora Bonds

Pakistan’s 9 million overseas workers sent $32 billion in FY2025. Harnessing this flow more effectively provides non-debt financing:

• Pakistan Prosperity Bonds: Offer diaspora-specific bonds with tax benefits, dual-currency options, and preferential exchange rates. India’s diaspora bonds raised $11 billion during its 2000-2001 crisis; Pakistan could target $3-5 billion.
• Remittance-Linked Development: Create dedicated funds where diaspora contributions finance specific projects (hospitals, universities) with naming rights and governance seats, building emotional investment alongside financial returns.

8. Regional Trade Integration and Tariff Rationalization

Pakistan’s trade-to-GDP ratio (21%) is among the world’s lowest, reflecting economic isolation. Joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and normalizing trade with India could add 2-3% to GDP growth:

• Strategic Tariff Liberalization: The government’s recent tariff policy is a start, but deeper cuts on industrial inputs and machinery could boost manufacturing competitiveness. Bangladesh’s selective liberalization increased exports by 35% in five years.
• Transit Trade Agreements: Leverage Pakistan’s geography by becoming a paid transit corridor for Central Asian-Indian trade, generating $500 million-1 billion in annual transit fees.

The Political Economy of Reform: Why This Time Could Be Different

Fiscal reform ultimately succeeds or fails on political economy, not economics. Pakistan has announced “final” IMF programs 24 times since 1947, each promising structural transformation, most delivering only temporary stabilization.

Three factors suggest this cycle might break differently:

First, the severity of the 2025 floods—affecting 7 million people and causing over $15 billion in damages—has created policy space for climate-focused reforms under the RSF that would normally face resistance. Tragedy can catalyze change.

Second, CPEC 2.0’s industrial cooperation framework, marking the 75th anniversary of Pakistan-China relations in 2026, offers tangible wins—jobs, technology transfer, exports—that make painful fiscal adjustments politically digestible if packaged correctly.

Third, Pakistan’s establishment increasingly recognizes that perpetual IMF dependency threatens genuine sovereignty. When the IMF can dictate agricultural pricing policy or pension taxation, Pakistan’s room for independent decision-making narrows dangerously. Building fiscal self-sufficiency becomes a strategic imperative, not just an economic one.

Scenarios for 2026-27: From Cautious to Transformational

Baseline Scenario (60% Probability)

Modest reforms continue. Tax-to-GDP rises to 10.5%, subsidies decline marginally, some SOE privatizations occur. Fiscal deficit narrows to 3.2% of GDP, primary surplus reaches 2.8%. Public debt stabilizes at 69-70% but doesn’t decline. IMF program continues on track but requires constant renegotiation.

Reform Scenario (30% Probability)

Government implements 6-7 of the eight recommendations aggressively. Tax-to-GDP jumps to 12%, CPEC 2.0 generates $5 billion in new exports, energy reforms save PKR 500 billion, green bonds raise $2 billion. Fiscal deficit falls to 2.2% of GDP, primary surplus reaches 3.5%, debt-to-GDP begins declining toward 65% by 2028. Pakistan “graduates” from IMF dependency.

Crisis Scenario (10% Probability)

Political instability derails reforms, floods or external shocks (oil price spikes, remittance drops) crater revenues, IMF program goes off track. Fiscal deficit exceeds 5%, debt spirals above 75% of GDP, Pakistan faces acute balance-of-payments crisis requiring emergency stabilization.

A Call to Action: The Window Is Narrow

Pakistan’s budget 2026-27 will be prepared over the next four months and presented to Parliament by June 2026. The technical work—revenue projections, expenditure allocations, debt management strategies—is already underway in the Ministry of Finance’s climate-controlled offices in Islamabad. But the real decisions will be made in political consultations, civil-military coordination meetings, and negotiations with the IMF mission that arrives in late February or early March for the third EFF review.

For Pakistan’s economic managers, the imperative is clear: use the narrow window of relative stability achieved in 2025 to lock in structural reforms that make the next crisis less likely and the next recovery more durable. This means accepting short-term political pain for medium-term fiscal sovereignty.

For international partners—the IMF, World Bank, China, and bilateral donors—the challenge is balancing demands for reform with recognition that Pakistan operates in a complex political environment where feasibility matters as much as optimality. The best can be the enemy of the good.

And for Pakistan’s 240 million citizens, especially the young majority under 30 who have never experienced sustained prosperity, the budget 2026-27 represents something more fundamental than fiscal arithmetic. It’s a test of whether Pakistan’s democratic institutions can deliver the competent economic governance that its enormous human and natural potential deserves.

The data suggests a path exists—from chronic deficits to sustainable surpluses, from debt dependency to fiscal resilience, from stabilization to inclusive growth. Whether Pakistan takes that path depends on choices made in the coming months, choices that will reverberate for decades.

The window is narrow. The stakes could not be higher. And this time, failure is not an option Pakistan can afford.

FAQ: Pakistan Budget 2026-27 and Fiscal Sustainability

Q1: What is Pakistan’s current debt-to-GDP ratio, and why does it matter?
Pakistan’s public debt reached 70.7% of GDP in FY2025, exceeding the legal limit of 60% by 10.7 percentage points. This matters because high debt constrains fiscal flexibility, crowds out development spending, and makes Pakistan vulnerable to external shocks.

Q2: Can Pakistan achieve a fiscal surplus in 2026-27?
A primary surplus (revenues exceeding non-interest spending) is achievable and necessary. Pakistan recorded a 2.4% primary surplus in FY2025-26. However, an overall surplus (including debt servicing) remains unlikely given that interest payments consume 40-50% of revenue. The goal should be expanding the primary surplus to 3-3.5% of GDP, which would stabilize and gradually reduce debt.

Q3: How does the IMF program affect Pakistan’s budget flexibility?
The $7 billion EFF comes with conditions including maintaining fiscal targets, limiting subsidies, and advancing structural reforms. However, Pakistan is negotiating flexibility within these parameters, particularly for climate spending under the $1.4 billion RSF facility.

Q4: What is CPEC 2.0, and how does it support fiscal sustainability?
CPEC 2.0 shifts from infrastructure to industrialization, emphasizing export-oriented manufacturing in Special Economic Zones. By boosting exports and creating jobs, it can reduce trade deficits and generate tax revenue—both critical for fiscal sustainability.

Q5: Why are energy sector reforms critical for reducing debt?
Pakistan’s power sector circular debt exceeds PKR 2.4 trillion and grows by PKR 400-500 billion annually. Privatizing distribution companies, renegotiating IPP contracts, and implementing cost-reflective tariffs could save PKR 500-700 billion annually, directly improving fiscal balances.

Q6: How can Pakistan expand its tax base without harming economic growth?
Digital integration, agricultural income taxation (targeting large farmers, not smallholders), property taxes, and AI-powered compliance can expand the tax base while maintaining growth. The focus should be horizontal expansion (bringing more people into the tax net) rather than vertical increases (higher rates on existing taxpayers).

Q7: What role do green bonds play in debt management?
Green bonds allow Pakistan to finance climate adaptation infrastructure while attracting ESG-focused investors who accept lower yields. This can reduce borrowing costs by 50-75 basis points compared to conventional debt while building climate resilience.

Q8: Is it realistic to expect Pakistan to reduce debt while investing in development?
Yes, if done strategically. The key is shifting from consumption subsidies to productive investment, improving tax collection efficiency, and leveraging concessional financing (World Bank, Asian Development Bank, green climate funds) for development. Several emerging markets—Vietnam, Bangladesh, Rwanda—have achieved this balance.

Q9: How long before Pakistan can “graduate” from IMF programs?
If the reform scenario materializes, Pakistan could conclude its current IMF program in 2027 without needing an immediate successor. However, maintaining market access requires 3-5 years of consistent policy implementation to rebuild credibility with international investors.

Q10: What are the biggest risks to fiscal sustainability in 2026-27?
Climate shocks (floods, droughts), political instability, global oil price spikes, or a sharp decline in remittances could derail progress. Building resilience requires foreign exchange reserves of $20+ billion, fiscal buffers of 1-2% of GDP, and rapid disaster response mechanisms.