Wall Street’s Anything-But-Tech Trade Shakes Up the US Stock Market: Energy, Small-Caps, and Materials Surge Ahead of AI Stocks

Wall Street’s Anything-But-Tech Trade Shakes Up the US Stock Market: Energy, Small-Caps, and Materials Surge Ahead of AI Stocks

A seismic shift in investor sentiment is reshaping market leadership as traditional sectors reclaim dominance | February 10, 2026

On a frigid January morning in Manhattan’s financial district, portfolio managers gathered around Bloomberg terminals watched an extraordinary spectacle unfold. The Russell 2000 index—that often-overlooked barometer of America’s smaller companies—was surging to an all-time high of 2,603.90, climbing 1.4% even as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite stumbled into the red. For anyone who’d spent the past three years watching artificial intelligence darlings like Nvidia and Microsoft mint fortunes, this was nothing short of a revolution.

Welcome to 2026’s great rotation—a wholesale reimagining of what works on Wall Street. After years of AI-driven dominance by mega-cap technology stocks, investors are executing what CNBC describes as a “mad stampede” from software companies whose entire competitive advantage fits on a thumb drive to asset-heavy producers of scarce physical necessities. The US stock market shift is unmistakable: energy groups, small-cap companies, and materials sector firms have displaced AI-linked shares as the market’s best performers.

The Numbers Tell a Compelling Story

The data paints a vivid picture of this market transformation. According to Morningstar’s latest analysis, the basic materials sector has posted the largest gains in 2026, rising 9.05%, followed closely by industrials and energy. Meanwhile, technology—the undisputed champion of 2025—has become the worst-performing sector, losing 0.40% year-to-date.

Small-cap stocks are experiencing an even more dramatic resurgence. The Russell 2000 is outpacing the S&P 500 by more than 8% in early 2026, according to Nasdaq, stringing together more than a dozen consecutive trading days of outperformance against the large-cap index. For perspective, the Russell 2000 hasn’t beaten the S&P 500 in a full calendar year since 2020—making this reversal all the more striking.

Perhaps most telling is the money flow. Deutsche Bank strategists flagged that sector funds excluding tech have seen a record $62 billion in inflows during the first five weeks of 2026—more than they attracted in all of 2025. That’s running nearly four standard deviations above historical averages, a statistical anomaly that underscores the ferocity of this rotation.

“We are most definitely seeing a rotation, and it has picked up some momentum from the end of last year. The gap between technology earnings growth and the rest of the market is closing, and as it closes, this rally is broadening, which I think is a healthy sign.”
— Michael Arone, Chief Investment Strategist, State Street

Energy’s Renaissance: From Defensive to Dynamic

Energy stocks have emerged as unlikely heroes in 2026’s market narrative, fundamentally reshaping their traditional role. Once considered defensive, inflation-hedging holdings, energy companies are now growth stories—and the catalyst is artificial intelligence itself.

The irony is delicious: the same AI revolution that propelled Nvidia and Microsoft to stratospheric valuations is now fueling an energy boom. Data centers powering AI systems are electricity gluttons. The International Energy Agency projects that global electricity consumption by data centers will at least double by 2030. Some estimates suggest AI alone could consume as much electricity as 22% of all American households combined by 2028.

This power hunger has transformed utilities and independent power producers into AI infrastructure plays. Consider the remarkable performance: Charles Schwab reports that as of mid-November 2025, NRG Energy had surged 79%, Constellation Energy climbed 55%, and Vistra gained nearly 30%. These aren’t typical utility returns—they’re tech-stock trajectories.

The nuclear renaissance deserves particular attention. Companies like Constellation Energy have secured landmark 20-year agreements with Meta to power AI supercomputers, while Microsoft has similar deals for its Azure cloud infrastructure. Nuclear’s ability to provide reliable, carbon-free baseload power has made it indispensable for hyperscalers racing to build computing capacity.

Small-Caps Stage a David-and-Goliath Reversal

The small-cap revival represents one of the most dramatic shifts in market leadership in recent memory. After languishing in a multi-year consolidation range since 2021, the Russell 2000 has roared back to life.

The fundamental case is compelling. Small-cap earnings are projected to accelerate sharply, with consensus estimates forecasting 17% to 22% growth in 2026, according to FactSet data—significantly outpacing the 14% growth expected for the S&P 500. This earnings inflection point is critical because it validates the rotation with improving fundamentals rather than mere sentiment.

Valuation dynamics favor the underdogs as well. The S&P 500 carries an average price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 22x, while the Russell 2000 trades at just 18x earnings. Over the past decade, the Nasdaq-100 returned a staggering 448% while the Russell 2000 gained just 126%—a performance gap of 322 percentage points. When small-caps have this much room to catch up, combined with superior earnings growth forecasts, the setup becomes hard to ignore.

Monetary policy tailwinds are accelerating the move. The Federal Reserve’s three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts in late 2025 brought the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, materially reducing borrowing costs for smaller companies that typically carry more debt than their large-cap counterparts. As one analyst noted, when the Fed eases, it’s essentially opening a liquidity spigot for domestically-focused businesses.

Materials and Commodities: The Physical World Strikes Back

Perhaps no sector better embodies the “anything-but-tech trade” than basic materials. Gold, silver, copper, and industrial metals are experiencing a renaissance driven by structural forces that extend well beyond cyclical positioning.

Precious metals have been particularly stunning performers. Aberdeen’s commodity outlook notes that silver rallied an astonishing 93% in 2025, while gold surged 59.7%. The drivers are multifaceted: sustained central bank buying (particularly from BRICS nations seeking to reduce dollar dependence), safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty, and supply deficits in silver driven by photovoltaic sector consumption.

Industrial metals tell an equally compelling story. Copper, the economic barometer often called “Dr. Copper,” gained 28.8% in 2025, supported by disappointing supply levels, delayed mining projects, and surging demand from the energy transition. Morgan Stanley’s commodity outlook highlights that the accelerating energy transition is creating unprecedented demand for copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel—metals essential for renewable power infrastructure and electric transportation.

The World Bank’s forecast calls for base metal prices to remain broadly stable or rise modestly in 2026, while precious metals are expected to climb an additional 5%. BMI analysts anticipate most minerals and metals will average higher prices than 2025, supported by declining tariff uncertainties, robust demand from net-zero sectors, and tighter supply conditions.

Why AI Stocks Are Fading: Overvaluation Meets Reality

The technology sector’s stumble isn’t about AI’s demise—it’s about valuation, market saturation, and the law of large numbers catching up with yesterday’s winners.

“AI fatigue” has become a tangible force. After three years of relentless gains driven by artificial intelligence hype, investors are questioning whether the eventual profits will justify the cost of the current buildout. BlackRock’s Investment Institute expects another $5-8 trillion in AI-related capital expenditures through 2030, but notes that many financial advisors remain underweight technology despite bullish AI sentiment—suggesting skepticism about valuations.

The numbers are sobering. As market analysts observe, software platforms like Salesforce now trade below 15x earnings—historically cheap for high-quality recurring revenue businesses—while ServiceNow sports a record-high 5% free-cash-flow yield. These aren’t overvalued companies anymore; they’re being indiscriminately sold as money chases momentum elsewhere.

Jim Cramer captured the dynamic perfectly: mega-cap tech stocks that dominated portfolios in 2025 are being trimmed to finance new positions in industrials, energy, and materials. The market is migrating from sectors with too much capacity facing a potential glut—software creation can become cheap and infinite with AI—to those with multi-year production constraints like gas turbines, electrical equipment, and mineral extraction.

Broader Implications: What This Rotation Means for Markets and the Economy

This market shift carries profound implications beyond short-term sector performance. At its core, the rotation reflects investors pricing in a more balanced economic expansion—one where growth broadens beyond a handful of technology giants.

The breadth improvement is healthy. When the S&P 500’s equal-weighted index outperforms the market-cap-weighted version, it signals that gains are spreading across more companies rather than concentrating in the “Magnificent Seven.” Research from Royce Investment Partners shows that when the equal-weighted Russell 1000 beats the cap-weighted Russell 1000, the Russell 2000 outperforms over the majority of rolling 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods dating back to 1984.

Inflation dynamics are shifting as well. Commodity strength typically signals expectations of either accelerating growth or supply constraints—or both. With the Fed having cut rates three times, inflation cooling from 2025 peaks, and energy/materials prices rising, markets are betting on a “Goldilocks” scenario: economic resilience without overheating.

The fiscal policy angle matters too. Energy infrastructure, domestic manufacturing incentives, and critical mineral supply chains are receiving unprecedented government focus. The race for copper drove the largest mining deal of 2025—the proposed $50 billion merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources—and similar M&A activity is expected in 2026 as producers seek to increase reserves and lower costs.

Looking Ahead: Is This Rotation Sustainable?

The critical question for investors: is this a durable multi-year shift or a temporary deviation that will reverse once tech earnings reassert dominance?

History offers some guidance. Small-caps and large-caps rarely trade market leadership on an annual basis; outperformance runs typically last over six years on average. The current setup—with small-caps breaking out from a multi-year base, energy benefiting from structural AI-driven demand, and materials supported by supply constraints—suggests durability.

Several experts see legs to this move. Wealth managers note that even billionaires are diversifying beyond tech concentration. Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group reasons that “there are times to have exposure to precious metals and other commodities and there are times not to—and I believe now is the time to own them, still.”

The risks to this bullish view on non-tech sectors center on economic downside. If growth slows materially, cyclicals like industrials and materials would suffer. Small-caps, with roughly 40% of Russell 2000 companies still unprofitable, would be particularly vulnerable in a recession. And if AI productivity gains accelerate faster than expected, technology’s premium valuation could prove justified.

Yet the overarching narrative is one of normalization. After an unprecedented concentration of returns in technology stocks—the S&P 500 outperformed the Russell 2000 by 69% over the past four years—mean reversion was inevitable. What we’re witnessing isn’t the death of artificial intelligence or technology investing. It’s the market remembering that a diversified stock portfolio 2026 needs exposure beyond big tech investments.

“The market is moving toward a more balanced state, where earnings growth and fundamental valuation—rather than pure momentum—are the primary drivers of stock performance. The broadening of the bull market is a healthy sign for the long-term stability of the financial system.”
— Market analysis, Financial Content Markets

The Bottom Line for Investors

Wall Street’s great rotation of 2026 represents a fundamental reassessment of value. Investors who spent three years chasing artificial intelligence returns are discovering that some of the best opportunities lie in decidedly un-sexy sectors: the utilities powering data centers, the miners extracting copper and lithium, the small industrial companies benefiting from domestic manufacturing reshoring.

For those constructing portfolios, the lesson is clear: diversification beyond technology isn’t just defensive positioning—it’s where the offensive opportunities increasingly reside. Energy stocks aren’t yesterday’s defensive plays; they’re growth vehicles benefiting from structural demand. Materials companies aren’t commodity traders; they’re critical suppliers for the energy transition. Small-caps aren’t speculative lottery tickets; they’re reasonably valued businesses poised for earnings acceleration.

The market’s message is unambiguous: the future won’t be dominated by software alone. It will be built on electricity, metals, infrastructure, and the physical scaffolding that makes digital transformation possible. Those who recognize this shift early stand to benefit from what could be a multi-year reordering of market leadership.

As one veteran portfolio manager put it: “We spent three years learning that AI changes everything. Now we’re learning that everything AI needs—power, materials, infrastructure—changes everything else.”

This analysis reflects market conditions and data current as of February 10, 2026. Markets are subject to change, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct their own research or consult financial advisors before making investment decisions.