Trump Considers Seizing Iran’s Kharg Island to ‘Take the Oil’ | Analysis

The popular Idiom : “The Cat comes out of bag” reveals the actual designs of trump by imposing illegal war on Iran . All he wants to occupy Oil reserves like he did in Venezuela.There are moments in geopolitics when a single sentence, dropped casually into a newspaper interview, reconfigures the strategic landscape. Donald Trump provided one such moment on Sunday when he told the Financial Times that his “favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran” — and that he was weighing whether to order U.S. forces to seize Kharg Island, the sun-scorched coral outcrop in the northern Persian Gulf that serves as the beating heart of the Islamic Republic’s petrostate economy.

“To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people,” Trump told the newspaper. When pressed on whether U.S. forces might seize the island, he replied: “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.” CNN

The markets did not wait for clarification. May futures for Brent crude rose over 3.2% to $116.12 per barrel during early Asia hours, with the international benchmark heading for a record monthly jump, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 3.4% to $102.9ba6 per barrel. CNBC The words of one man in an Oval Office interview had, within hours, threatened to reroute the global economy.

The Island That Runs an Empire

To understand why Trump’s remarks triggered such alarm, one must first appreciate the extraordinary concentration of strategic value contained within nine square miles of Persian Gulf coral.

Around 96% of Iran’s crude exports pass through Kharg, making it one of the most concentrated oil-export chokepoints in the world. Over the past year Iran exported about 1.64 million barrels per day of crude, roughly 1.577 million bpd of which departed from Kharg’s terminals. The terminal can theoretically load up to 5 million bpd, far above current export levels. The island also hosts 55 storage tanks capable of holding about 34 million barrels of crude. Iranopendata

Kharg Island lies in the northern Middle East Gulf, around 25 km off Iran’s coast and more than 480 km northwest of the Strait of Hormuz. Its importance begins with geography. Much of Iran’s coastline is too shallow for the world’s largest tankers, but Kharg is surrounded by naturally deep water, allowing Very Large Crude Carriers to berth directly and load cargoes of up to roughly two million barrels. Kpler

This is not merely infrastructure. It is the fiscal spine of the Iranian state. Disrupt Kharg, and you do not merely inconvenience Tehran — you amputate its primary source of hard currency. Iran has spent decades and billions of dollars attempting to build alternatives, but as Kpler data confirms, the Jask terminal’s effective capacity is widely estimated at closer to 0.3 million barrels per day, with historically low utilization. By comparison, Kharg alone has historically exported around 1.5 to 2.0 million barrels per day. Kpler

The island’s vulnerability was not lost on Iran either. During the 15 to 20 February period before hostilities commenced, Iran increased its oil export to three times its normal rate and reduced oil storage — probably in anticipation of an attack. Wikipedia A regime that had spent years insisting Kharg was inviolable was hedging in ways that suggested otherwise.

The Venezuela Parallel — and Its Limits

Trump’s framing of the Kharg question is revealing. He likened the potential move to the U.S. ambitions to control Venezuela’s oil industry following the capture of its leader Nicolás Maduro in January. CNN The comparison illuminates both the president’s strategic logic and its considerable weaknesses.

Venezuela’s oil infrastructure was seized after a regime change that unfolded largely through domestic political collapse, accelerated by economic strangulation. Iran is a different proposition entirely. It is a sovereign state with a standing military, substantial missile and drone arsenals, and — crucially — geography that does not afford the United States the luxury of standoff control. Kharg Island sits within range of Iranian rocket artillery and short-range ballistic missiles. Unlike Venezuela’s Maracaibo Basin, it is embedded within a conflict zone where Iranian forces retain the capacity to strike daily.

Real dangers to the troops would come after the initial invasion. Iran would turn the U.S. presence on the key island into a priority target and focus its firepower there. Iran has been hit hard, but still retains the ability to fire drones and missiles, including daily barrages at Israel and the UAE. Unlike Israel, Kharg is in range of Iranian rocket artillery, as well as multiple types of suicide drones. The Times of Israel

Trump acknowledged this arithmetic only obliquely: “It would also mean we had to be there [in Kharg Island] for a while,” CNBC he told the FT — a rare concession that even optimistic scenarios involve an extended, contested occupation of hostile territory deep in the Persian Gulf.

The Military Backdrop: Strikes, Troops, and Escalating Posture

Trump’s remarks do not emerge from a vacuum of rhetorical speculation. They land in a conflict that is now in its fifth week and has already made Kharg Island a theatre of direct U.S. military action.

The United States on March 14 targeted military assets on Kharg Island as part of a broader campaign aimed at protecting maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command said American forces struck military targets on the island while deliberately avoiding its oil infrastructure. “Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle East and totally obliterated every military target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. Iran International

The deliberate sparing of oil infrastructure was itself a message — one that Trump has now placed under explicit review. “Should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” he wrote at the time. Iran International

The troop posture reinforces the strategic intent. The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon was preparing for weeks of potential ground conflict in Iran with around 3,500 troops arriving in the region on Friday, while thousands of soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division have also been ordered to support the war effort. CNBC An amphibious assault team arrived in the Persian Gulf on Saturday. The combination of airborne and marine assets in the region is precisely the force package one would assemble to secure and hold a fortified island.

Three Scenarios the Market Is Now Pricing

Analysts surveying the current landscape have begun structuring their outlook around three distinct trajectories, each with materially different energy-market implications:

• Scenario A — Negotiated settlement: Parallel diplomatic efforts, notably Pakistan’s offer to host talks, produce a ceasefire framework. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15-point list of demands conveyed via Pakistan to end the war, adding: “They’re agreeing with us on the plan.” CNN In this scenario, Kharg Island serves as a pressure lever rather than an occupation target; oil recedes toward the $90 range. Probability: rising but fragile.
• Scenario B — Blockade or encirclement: U.S. naval forces impose a maritime cordon around Kharg without a physical landing, severing Iranian oil exports through economic rather than military occupation. This hedges U.S. casualty risk while achieving the fiscal strangulation objective, though it invites Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure and risks a protracted naval standoff.
• Scenario C — Physical seizure: American marines and paratroopers land on Kharg Island, securing the oil terminal under U.S. military administration. This is Trump’s stated preference. Such an attempt would likely require a ground troop operation, and an attack would also likely prompt further energy market volatility at a time when oil prices have soared to nearly $120 a barrel. CNBC In the worst-case variant, Iranian retaliation extends to Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura and Abu Dhabi’s Fujairah terminals, removing a combined 15 to 20 million barrels per day from global supply and triggering recession conditions across import-dependent economies.

The Hormuz Dimension

Any analysis of Kharg Island must account for the Strait of Hormuz, the nautical bottleneck whose closure has already inflicted severe damage on global energy flows since the war began in late February.

Before the disruption, about 14.7 million bpd of crude and 4.8 million bpd of petroleum products moved through the strait each day. Energy prices have surged roughly 30%, pushing oil above $100 per barrel. The ripple effects extend beyond crude: Qatar has halted exports of roughly 330 million cubic metres of LNG per day, about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade. Iranopendata

Iran’s naval doctrine emphasizes the use of asymmetric tactics, including naval mines, fast-attack boats and anti-ship missiles. Iran is believed to possess between 2,000 and 6,000 naval mines. Even a limited number could disrupt maritime traffic in the narrow waterway. Iran International

The seizure of Kharg Island is, in part, Trump’s proposed solution to the Hormuz problem: occupy the oil infrastructure Iran uses to fund its naval doctrine, and the regime’s capacity to sustain a blockade erodes. The logic is not without merit — but it rests on the assumption that an occupied Kharg would remain operational. That assumption is far from guaranteed. JPMorgan’s commodities research team found it likely that an attack on Kharg Island could trigger retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against major regional energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura, the Abqaiq processing facility, and the UAE’s Fujairah. Euronews

Expert Perspectives: A Divided Strategic Community

The analyst community reflects the genuine strategic ambiguity of the moment.

Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican influential in guiding Trump’s policy on Iran, argued that controlling the island could shorten the war. “Seldom in warfare does an enemy provide you a single target like Kharg Island that could dramatically alter the outcome of the conflict,” he wrote on X. Time

Former Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant was equally direct. “On the strategic chessboard of this war, Kharg Island is the next piece,” he wrote. “It may be the move that decides the conflict. If it is going to be made, it must be made now.” The Times of Israel

But seasoned military and energy analysts are considerably more cautious. Marc Gustafson, former head of the White House Situation Room who served under presidents Trump, Biden and Obama, acknowledged that Trump may be tempted by the opportunity to claim a “big PR win” and give U.S. troops a natural barrier from mainland Iran, but this must be weighed against force protection risks. CNBC

Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck Funds, had earlier offered a prescient framing of the strategic calculus: “It’s where 90% of Iran’s oil gets exported out of — that is a choke point. And if you think that Trump just follows the same playbook that he did in Venezuela — he cut off their oil exports, their hard currency, and I think he is going to want that leverage point going forward.” CNBC

The critical distinction, however, is one of sequencing. Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies offered a pointed qualifier: “If you could actually deny them that oil export, it would likely mean we’ve so degraded the regime’s threat capacity that we don’t fear for our own force protection whether on or near Kharg.” The Times of Israel The question, in other words, is not whether Kharg is a prize worth having — it manifestly is — but whether the conditions for holding it can be created before the attempt is made.

The Wider Regional Fragmentation

Iran has not stood still while these calculations are being made in Washington. As hostilities continue for a fifth week, Tehran has escalated attacks on Gulf energy and civilian infrastructure, with a service building at a power generation and water desalination plant in Kuwait damaged Sunday evening, killing one worker. CNBC The Houthi rebels in Yemen formally entered the conflict over the weekend, adding another axis of missile and drone pressure. Oil prices surged to about $115 a barrel after Iranian media reported a suspected US-Israeli strike on the Tabriz Petrochemical Company in northwestern Iran on Monday. RT International

Meanwhile, analysts warned that the most significant risk remains broader escalation targeting energy infrastructure across the region, with particular concern about attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline, both of which are being used to re-route oil flows disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz’s closure. Euronews

The global macroeconomic implications are no longer hypothetical. Asian equities fell sharply on Monday morning. LNG-dependent economies in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan face acute near-term supply deficits. European energy ministers convened emergency calls. The economic impact of a prolonged U.S. seizure of Iran’s oil terminal — combined with the pre-existing Hormuz disruption — would constitute the most severe peacetime energy shock since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, and arguably surpass it in duration and geographic scope.

Historical Echoes: Oil as the Currency of Power

Trump’s instinct to “take the oil” is neither new nor confined to Iran. It reflects a persistent thread in his strategic worldview — one that treats energy infrastructure as sovereign collateral in the service of American power projection.

He made similar arguments about Iraqi oil during both his 2016 campaign and first term. He framed the Venezuela intervention in part through the lens of oil control. The difference in 2026 is that, for the first time, the rhetorical posture has been coupled with deployed military assets, live combat operations against Kharg’s military facilities, and an explicit public statement of preference — delivered not on a rally stage but to the Financial Times.

That distinction matters. Presidents who tell the Financial Times what they “really want” to do are rarely speaking entirely off the cuff.

Conclusion: The Most Consequential Nine Square Miles on Earth

Kharg Island has occupied a unique position in the geography of global energy since the 1960s, when Mohammad Reza Shah partnered with American oil companies to transform a coral outcrop into the engine of Iran’s petrostate. It has survived the Iran-Iraq War, international sanctions, and decades of strategic calculation by adversaries who understood that destroying it would inflict more pain on global markets than on Tehran alone.

It now confronts an entirely new category of threat: not destruction, but seizure. A U.S. president publicly stated that taking it is his “favourite option.” Whether that preference translates into orders depends on the outcome of parallel diplomatic tracks, the resilience of Tehran’s negotiating position, and the tolerance of American allies for a ground operation that could, depending on Iranian retaliation, spiral into the most consequential regional conflict since the Second World War.

What is already beyond doubt is the economic verdict. Oil above $116 a barrel, LNG flows disrupted, a Strait effectively closed to commercial traffic — these are not hypothetical stress tests. They are today’s reality. The decision on Kharg Island will determine whether they become tomorrow’s starting point.

The stakes, as Trump himself might say, are very, very big.

References

Euronews Business. (2026, March 16). Explainer: Why Kharg Island is vital to Iran and the global economy. Euronews. https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/16/explainer-why-kharg-island-is-vital-to-iran-and-the-global-economy

Financial Times. (2026, March 30). Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’ as president eyes Kharg Island. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5

Kpler. (2026). Explainer: Why Kharg Island is the backbone of Iran’s oil economy — and its greatest vulnerability. Kpler Intelligence. https://www.kpler.com/blog/explainer-why-kharg-island-is-the-backbone-of-irans-oil-economy—and-its-greatest-vulnerability

CNBC. (2026, March 9). Iran war, US-Israel conflict, oil prices and Kharg Island. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/iran-war-us-israel-conflict-oil-prices-kharg-island.html

Times of Israel. (2026). Taking Kharg Island is seen as key to opening Hormuz — there are better options. The Times of Israel. https://www.timesofisrael.com/taking-kharg-island-is-seen-as-key-to-opening-hormuz-there-are-better-options/

Washington Post. (2026, March 30). Iran-US-Israel conflict: Trump, Lebanon, latest updates — March 30, 2026. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/03/30/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-march-30-2026/