The Dragon Overtakes the Tiger: How China Is Widening Its Tech Lead in Batteries, Biotech, and Beyond

There is a moment in a relay race when one runner edges past another — not dramatically, but with the quiet inevitability of accumulated effort. That moment arrived for China in 2022, when Beijing overtook Seoul in overall technological capability for the first time in history. By 2024, the gap had widened considerably. China had not just lapped South Korea; it had surpassed Japan, climbed past the European Union in strategic technologies, and begun breathing down the neck of the United States in sectors ranging from batteries and biotech to artificial intelligence and next-generation energy systems.

The numbers are no longer a whisper. They are a klaxon.

Seoul’s Own Scoreboard: When the Report Card Stings

Every two years, South Korea’s Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) publishes one of the world’s most rigorous national technology assessments, benchmarking 136 core technologies across 11 priority sectors — from semiconductors and ICT to aerospace, defence, and energy. The methodology blends quantitative analysis of research papers and patents with qualitative surveys from over 1,000 domain experts. It is, by any measure, a credible reckoning.

The results of the 2024 Technology Level Evaluation, released in early 2026, delivered a verdict that Seoul found both instructive and uncomfortable. Using the United States as the baseline of 100%, China’s technology level across 50 national strategic technologies stood at 91.3%, while the EU ranked at 90.5%, Japan at 84.9%, and South Korea at 82.7%. Across the broader 136-technology assessment, China ranked third at approximately 86.8%, pushing Japan (86.2%) to fourth place — a striking reversal from 2022, when Japan still held third position.

The directional story is even more alarming for Seoul: while South Korea closed its gap with the US by 0.4 years since 2022, China compressed its gap by a full 0.8 years in the same period. Japan’s growth rate, meanwhile, has been in secular decline since 2016.

Sources: South Korea Ministry of Science and ICT; South China Morning Post

The battery sector tells the sharpest story. Secondary batteries — lithium-ion cells powering everything from smartphones to electric vehicles — were, until recently, South Korea’s crown jewel and the one domain where it still held a measurable lead over China. Not anymore. According to Yonhap News Agency, the assessment found that even in secondary batteries, China has now drawn ahead, having made rapid advances in basic research, innovation capacity, and industrialisation pace. The lead Korea once held has vanished — replaced by a Chinese edge of roughly 0.2 years.

How China Is Widening Its Tech Lead in Batteries and Biotech

To understand how China extended its lead so quickly, you have to trace the architecture of intent built over the past decade. The “Made in China 2025” initiative — announced in 2015 and subsequently evolved into a broader suite of industrial policies — was not merely a manufacturing roadmap. It was a civilisational declaration: China intended to become self-sufficient in, and eventually dominant in, the technologies that define the 21st century.

In batteries alone, China’s execution has been spectacular. It controls roughly 75–80% of global lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity, dominates upstream supply chains in lithium, cobalt, and graphite processing, and has been filing battery-related patents at record pace. US patent data confirms that battery patents (H01M class) were among the fastest-growing categories in 2024, rising 16% year-on-year, with Chinese filers contributing disproportionately to that surge. Companies like CATL and BYD have moved well beyond manufacturing into fundamental research on solid-state cells, sodium-ion chemistry, and next-generation anode materials. China sold more than four times as many electric vehicles as the United States in 2024, creating a domestic innovation flywheel that Korea and Japan struggle to match.

The biotech gap is widening with equal velocity. China has invested massively in synthetic biology, genomics, and biomanufacturing, fields where volume of scientific output now rivals the West. Its STEM pipeline is a structural advantage that compounds annually: China produces an estimated 3.5 to 4 million STEM graduates per year, compared with approximately 140,000 in South Korea. Even accounting for quality variance, this talent differential is generationally decisive.

The Economist has observed that China’s next wave of technological dominance may come precisely in areas like advanced materials, clean energy, and bioengineering — sectors where the combination of state capital, academic scale, and manufacturing depth creates barriers that neither targeted export controls nor industrial subsidies can quickly erode.

The Semiconductor Paradox: Where Korea Still Leads — Barely

Not all the news favours Beijing. In advanced semiconductors — specifically high-end logic chips and cutting-edge memory — South Korea retains meaningful advantages. Samsung and SK Hynix remain global leaders in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a critical ingredient in AI infrastructure. South Korea’s semiconductor capability hovers around 91.2% of the US baseline, while China’s, despite enormous investment, sits at approximately 91.5% in the MSIT’s broader assessment though still trails significantly in manufacturing sophistication.

This paradox — China leading on aggregate metrics while trailing in the most advanced nodes — reflects both the breadth of Chinese scientific investment and the targeted success of US-led export controls. Washington has coordinated with Tokyo, Amsterdam, and Seoul to restrict China’s access to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, slowing its progress toward sub-5nm fabrication. China’s SMIC has produced 7nm chips using older deep ultraviolet tools pushed to their limits — an impressive engineering feat — but at efficiency costs that make volume production commercially difficult.

The strategic dilemma for Seoul is that China’s lag in advanced chips may not last. The Chinese government has committed close to $200 billion in cumulative semiconductor investment since 2014, including a $47.5 billion “Big Fund” third tranche closed in 2024. That capital is patient, strategic, and politically insulated from quarterly earnings pressures. History suggests it is unwise to bet against the trajectory.

The China vs Japan–South Korea Tech Gap: Structural, Not Cyclical

What makes the China vs Japan–South Korea tech gap particularly alarming for the region’s policymakers is its structural nature. This is not a business cycle divergence that will correct at the next upturn. It reflects the cumulative effect of three compounding advantages.

First, scale of R&D ambition. China now spends over 2.4% of GDP on research and development — approaching US levels — and has been growing that proportion steadily. State-directed investment in AI, quantum computing, biotech, and clean energy is not constrained by the same private-sector short-termism that limits corporate R&D in democratic market economies.

Second, market size as an innovation laboratory. With over 1.4 billion people and the world’s largest EV, solar, and 5G markets, China can iterate at a pace and scale unavailable to competitors. Product cycles that take years in smaller markets compress into months. This is particularly decisive in hardware-intensive sectors like batteries, displays, and energy systems.

Third, academic momentum. China now produces more peer-reviewed scientific papers than any other country — and the quality gap with Western institutions is narrowing faster than many acknowledge. As ITIF analysis has documented, China has become a genuine first-mover in multiple advanced industries, not merely an imitator. The 2022 Harvard Belfer Center report — now looking almost prophetic — warned that China had become a serious rival in AI, 5G, quantum science, semiconductors, biotech, and green energy, and that in some areas it had already reached number one.

Japan, for its part, is suffering a different pathology: institutional calcification. Its growth rate in the MSIT assessment has been declining since 2016, a reflection of ageing demographics, underinvestment in software-driven sectors, and a corporate culture that has historically under-rewarded disruptive innovation. Korea’s Chosun Ilbo has reported that South Korea now leads China in only six technology categories — a startling contraction from prior assessments when the lead was broader and more comfortable.

The US-China Tension Variable — And Its Second-Order Effects on Korea

The geopolitical architecture surrounding this technology race cannot be ignored. US-China strategic competition has forced allies like South Korea into an uncomfortable middle position: economically dependent on China (its largest trading partner), security-dependent on the United States, and technologically challenged by both. Washington Post analysis has described this as a “tech race” shaped as much by Xi Jinping’s statecraft as by Silicon Valley innovation.

For Seoul, export controls on chips and equipment create short-term advantage — keeping Chinese fabs behind the frontier — but also introduce long-term risk. If China develops domestic alternatives to ASML lithography equipment or TSMC-calibre foundry services, the competitive landscape shifts permanently, and Korea’s premium-memory moat could erode faster than anticipated.

Forbes analyst Evan Feigenbaum has argued that Beijing’s high-tech ambitions are not merely industrial policy but the centrepiece of a broader effort to redefine the sources of economic power in the 21st century. “Made in China 2025” is less a plan than a commitment — one that has survived trade wars, pandemic disruptions, and semiconductor embargoes with its ambition largely intact.

What South Korea Must Do

The MSIT report is not merely a diagnosis; it is a call to arms. South Korea has responded with urgency. Under its First Basic Plan for Critical and Emerging Technologies (2024–2028), Seoul has allocated approximately $4.9 billion annually for targeted R&D across 12 strategic technologies, with heavy emphasis on AI, semiconductors, biotech, and quantum computing. That represents a more than 50% increase in quantum-related investment in 2025 alone.

But the talent gap remains the deepest structural challenge. South Korea faces a shrinking population and a troubling trend of STEM students pivoting to medicine — a career more financially rewarding in the short term, more catastrophic for the nation’s long-term innovation capacity. Without a radical rethinking of how Korea attracts, retains, and incentivises STEM talent — including through immigration reform and improved researcher compensation — no amount of R&D spending will close the gap with a country that graduates thirty times as many engineers.

There is also an underexplored opportunity: collaboration. China and South Korea share deep industrial supply chains, geographic proximity, and complementary technological strengths. A more nuanced policy framework — one that distinguishes between technologies where decoupling is essential for security (advanced logic chips, military AI) and those where cooperation could accelerate mutual progress (clean energy, biotech, green manufacturing) — could serve Seoul’s long-term interests better than blanket alignment with Washington’s most restrictive impulses.

Conclusion: The Map Has Changed

The Seoul ranking shows China overtaking Japan and extending its lead over South Korea in critical technologies — and those facts must now be the starting point for every serious policy conversation about Asian economic competitiveness. The data is South Korean. The methodology is credible. The trajectory is unmistakable.

China’s ascent in batteries, biotech, displays, AI, and next-generation energy is not a function of theft or subsidies alone — though both play a role. It is the compounded result of strategic clarity, institutional commitment, talent pipeline scale, and market depth. The challenge for South Korea, Japan, and their Western partners is not to deny this reality but to respond to it with equivalent seriousness.

The race is not over. But the map has changed — and those who govern as if it has not are already losing.

Sources and further reading: South China Morning Post – “China extends tech lead over South Korea and surpasses Japan” | Korea Herald – “China factor: How Beijing’s tech rise is testing Korea’s export engine” | Chosun Ilbo – “South Korea Leads in Only Six Technologies Against China” | The Economist – “What China Will Dominate Next” | Washington Post – “Xi Jinping, Trump and the tech race” | Forbes – “How China Wants High-Tech to Power Its Economy to the Top” | ITIF – “China Is Rapidly Becoming a Leading Innovator in Advanced Industries”