Pakistan Poised to Ace IMF Targets: A Closer Look at the February 2026 Review

ISLAMAMABAD/KARACHI – As an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission gears up for its arrival in the last week of February 2026, Islamabad finds itself in an unusually comfortable position. For the third review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all of its seven Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs) . This marks a significant departure from the history of last-minute scrambles and waiver requests that have often characterized the country’s long and troubled relationship with the global lender.

According to data compiled by Topline Securities and validated by recent state bank figures, the Pakistan IMF review 2026 is shaping up to be a technical success, even as underlying structural vulnerabilities continue to whisper warnings about the durability of this hard-won stability . The assessment, covering performance targets for September and December 2025, arrives on the back of macroeconomic indicators that, just two years ago, seemed like a distant mirage.

The Scorecard: A Fiscal Straight-A Student?

The upcoming review will assess Pakistan’s performance against the seven core QPCs—the non-negotiable red lines of the program that typically require a board-level waiver if breached. Based on available data for February 2026, the government has not only met but, in some cases, spectacularly exceeded these targets.

Net International Reserves (NIR) are projected to remain comfortably above the benchmark floors of negative $7 billion for September 2025 and negative $6.5 billion for December 2025 . This improvement is backed by real-world figures: gross foreign exchange reserves have swelled to $14.5 billion, a formidable jump from $9.4 billion at the start of the program, providing a crucial buffer against external shocks.

The fiscal story is even more impressive. Pakistan fiscal stability IMF metrics show the primary surplus hitting a projected Rs 3.5 trillion for September and Rs 4.1 trillion for December—massively outpacing the IMF’s targets of Rs 460 billion and Rs 3.2 trillion, respectively . This aligns with the full-year FY25 data, which recorded a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP, a feat achieved through stringent expenditure control and a sharp compression of development spending.

On the monetary front, the Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the State Bank of Pakistan are estimated in the range of Rs 12.5-13.5 trillion, well under the ceiling targets of Rs 14.9-15.1 trillion, indicating a tight lid on monetary expansion . Government guarantees and the push for new tax filers are also on track.

The Rs 1 Billion Blip and the FBR Conundrum

However, the report card is not entirely without a red mark. One indicator—the floor on targeted cash transfers under the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP)—was technically missed in the prior review by a razor-thin margin of just Rs 1 billion . While final data for the December quarter is pending, this near-miss highlights a persistent tension: the human cost of austerity. As the government tightens its belt to satisfy IMF QPCs Pakistan performance, social safety nets are often the first to feel the strain, a point critics argue could undermine long-term social stability even as fiscal metrics improve.

A more significant shadow looms over the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). Despite the fanfare around fiscal surpluses, Pakistan economy IMF targets face a substantial hurdle on the revenue side. The FBR has missed its tax collection target by a sizable Rs 336 billion . Officials are pinning hopes on recovering a portion of this shortfall through pending verdicts related to the Super Tax on high-income earners. Yet, even with this one-off fix, the tax-to-GDP ratio—stuck at around 10.3% —remains anemic compared to regional peers.

This paradox defines the current phase of the program: Pakistan is passing the IMF’s liquidity tests through administrative controls and expenditure cuts, but it is failing the solvency test of expanding its revenue base. As one analyst noted, the government is essentially surviving on a diet of fiscal discipline while the wound of tax evasion remains unhealed.

Beyond the QPCs: The Quiet RSF Revolution

While the headlines focus on the fiscal numbers, the February visit will also conduct the second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). This often-overlooked component of the program is where Pakistan’s future economic viability is being quietly negotiated.

The EFF RSF Pakistan updates indicate a growing focus on climate resilience—a matter of existential importance for a country still scarred by the 2022 floods that caused over $30 billion in damages . The RSF aims to move beyond disaster response to proactive adaptation. Reform measures being scrutinized include improving public investment in water resource management and introducing climate risk disclosures for banks and corporations .

Here, the narrative shifts from spreadsheets to stories. The resilience of Pakistani communities against climate-induced displacement is now a variable in the economic equation. A failure to meet RSF benchmarks on water governance or disaster financing coordination between provinces wouldn’t just be an environmental setback; it would be a direct threat to the balance of payments stability the IMF is trying to protect. This interlinkage is something previous IMF programs ignored, but the 2026 review brings it to the forefront.

The Deep State of the Economy: Progress vs. Privilege

To understand the February 2026 review, one must look beyond the compliance checklist and into the political economy that shapes it. The IMF bailout Pakistan progress is undeniable on paper: inflation has cooled to a period average of 4.5% , the current account posted a surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25, and GDP growth is projected at a modest 3.2% in FY26 .

Yet, these aggregates mask the inertia of elite capture. A recent IMF governance diagnostic reportedly noted that corruption and privileged access to resources cost Pakistan as much as 6% of GDP annually—funds that could easily bridge the tax shortfall and fund development . The “steel” in the current program, as described by some observers, is designed to break these entrenched interests, demanding taxation of the agricultural and retail elites who have historically remained outside the net .

Key Data Snapshot: Pakistan’s IMF Program Performance (Feb 2026)

This sets up a fascinating dynamic for the review. The government arrives in Washington and Islamabad (during the mission) with a strong hand—they have the numbers. But the IMF, backed by bilateral partners like the US, Saudi Arabia, and even the UAE, is likely to push back, arguing that the quality of the adjustment matters as much as the quantity . The real test isn’t whether Pakistan hit the December NIR target, but whether it can sustain the effort without resorting to the administrative “band-aids” of the past.

Navigating Choppy Waters: The Analogy of the Ship

Think of the Pakistani economy in early 2026 as a large ship that has finally managed to drop anchor in a storm. The Pakistan IMF review 2026 confirms the anchor is holding: the ship isn’t drifting toward default. The anchors are the $14.5 billion reserves and the primary surplus. However, the vessel remains battered. The engines (private investment) are sputtering—FDI has reportedly dropped—and the hull has leaks (circular debt in the energy sector has ballooned to Rs 2.4 trillion) .

The IMF mission’s role is akin to a meticulous insurance surveyor. They are checking if the temporary patches are holding. The government can proudly point to the engine room, showing that the flooding (inflation) has been pumped out. But the surveyors are peering into the dark corners, questioning why the pumps aren’t permanently fixed, and why the crew (the elite) refuses to row together.

Looking Ahead: The Exit or the Entrance?

As the February 2026 review concludes—likely with a successful disbursement—the focus will inevitably shift to the endgame. Can Pakistan exit this cycle of dependency, or is this merely another entrance into a new phase of stabilization without prosperity? The IMF has projected that sustained governance reforms could lift Pakistan’s growth to 5-6.5% over the next five years . Achieving this would require replicating the success of countries like Indonesia, which used IMF discipline as a launchpad rather than a life-support system.

For now, the government deserves credit for the optics. Meeting nearly all QPCs in a global environment of tight liquidity and geopolitical tension is no small feat. The primary surplus achievement, in particular, signals a newfound resolve in the finance ministry. But as the ship steadies, the real work begins. The February sun illuminates not just the calm waters ahead, but also the barnacles of inefficiency and privilege clinging to the hull. Scraping them off will determine whether this IMF program is remembered as Pakistan’s turning point or just another deferral of the inevitable reckoning.