Analysis

How China Could Win the Geopolitical Game by Default

Published

1 week ago

February 16, 2026

As America Pivots Inward, Beijing Quietly Fills the Vacuum Without Firing a Shot

Imagine a world where the United States, consumed by domestic priorities and hemispheric ambitions, gradually cedes ground it once defended—not through military defeat, but through distraction. Now imagine China, patient and strategic, stepping into those vacuums with infrastructure deals, economic lifelines, and soft power that doesn’t demand regime change or ideological conversion. This isn’t speculation. It’s happening right now in early 2026.

The geopolitical chessboard is being quietly rearranged, and China may be positioning itself to win by default—not because it’s stronger militarily or economically, but because its primary rival is looking elsewhere.

The Strategic Pause: Trump’s Pivot and China’s Opportunity

When President Trump and Xi Jinping met in Busan in October 2025, the world expected another round of confrontational posturing. Instead, they negotiated a one-year trade truce that has fundamentally altered the trajectory of US-China relations entering 2026. This détente, confirmed by Xi’s February 4 phone call with Trump, represents more than diplomatic optics—it’s a strategic realignment.

The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy marks a seismic shift: China is no longer framed as an existential ideological threat but as an economic competitor. Meanwhile, Washington’s attention has pivoted decisively toward the Western Hemisphere, with Venezuela, Greenland, and Canada dominating headlines. As Brookings analysts note, this creates a “period of relative strategic calm”—calm that Beijing is exploiting with surgical precision.

The Diplomatic Carousel: Europe Turns East

The parade of Western leaders to Beijing in recent weeks tells a story that policy papers cannot. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Canada’s Mark Carney, Finland’s Petteri Orpo, and Germany’s Friedrich Merz have all made the pilgrimage, seeking economic partnerships in an era of American unpredictability.

As CNN’s analysis reveals, Beijing views this as vindication: proof that its vision of a multipolar world is resonating while American unilateralism alienates traditional allies. European leaders aren’t abandoning Washington wholesale, but they’re hedging—and in geopolitics, hedging is half the battle.

Consider the stakes: Trump’s threats to seize Greenland and his escalating feud with Canada have created what Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called a “rupture” in the world order. Into this breach steps China, offering stability over volatility, predictability over caprice.

The Infrastructure Empire: BRI’s Quiet Conquest

While Washington debates border walls and tariffs, Beijing is building bridges—literally. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) signed a record $213.5 billion in new deals in 2025, a 75% surge from 2024, according to the Griffith Asia Institute. Cumulative BRI investment now exceeds $1.4 trillion across 150 countries—representing roughly 65% of the world’s population.

Here’s the geopolitical math: CFR research shows China wins more than eight times as many World Bank-funded infrastructure contracts as the United States. By comparison, America’s “Build Back Better World” initiative managed just $6 million in commitments its first year before rebranding as the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment—a name change that highlights the gap between rhetoric and reality.

Key BRI Metrics (2025-2026):

Indicator	China (BRI)	US Alternatives
Annual New Deals	$213.5B	~$6M (B3W, 2021)
Countries Engaged	150+	Limited bilateral
Cumulative Investment	$1.4T	Significantly lower
Focus Areas	Energy (43%), infrastructure, minerals	Scattered initiatives

Source: Griffith Asia Institute, CFR

China’s 2025 BRI pivot toward Africa and Central Asia—particularly energy projects comprising 43% of total engagement—demonstrates strategic foresight. These aren’t vanity projects; they’re the architecture of future dependencies.

The Rare Earth Reality: China’s Chokehold on the Future

Here’s a vulnerability that keeps Pentagon planners awake: China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth mining and 85-90% of processing capacity, according to recent analysis. More critically, it manufactures 94% of the world’s permanent rare earth magnets—components essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, fighter jets, and smartphones.

When China paused rare earth export restrictions ahead of the Trump-Xi Busan summit, it wasn’t capitulation—it was a demonstration of leverage. The message was clear: Beijing holds a geological trump card in the clean energy transition and can weaponize it when needed.

China’s Rare Earth Dominance (2026):

Mining: 70% of global output
Processing: 85-90% of global capacity
Magnet Manufacturing: 94% of permanent magnets
Heavy Rare Earths: 98% of dysprosium, 99% of yttrium

Source: IEA Critical Minerals Analysis, University of Technology Sydney

CSIS experts surveyed in December 2025 believe China can wield this dominance for 5-10+ years before alternatives emerge—a timeline that spans multiple election cycles and guarantees Beijing outsized influence over global manufacturing, trade negotiations, and climate policy.

The Economic Equation: Growth vs. Volatility

In raw GDP terms, America still leads. The IMF projects US GDP at $31.8 trillion in 2026 compared to China’s $20.7 trillion in nominal terms. But dig deeper: China’s growth rate of 4.16% significantly outpaces America’s 2.1%, according to StatisticsTimes data.

More tellingly, Goldman Sachs forecasts China’s current account surplus—the gap between export income and import spending—will rise to 4.2% of GDP in 2026, defying consensus predictions of decline. China’s exports to emerging markets soared by roughly 8% in real terms in 2025, while its dependence on the US market continues shrinking (from 3.5% of GDP in 2018 to 2.8% in 2024, per The Diplomat).

2026 Economic Comparison:

Metric	United States	China
Nominal GDP	$31.8 trillion	$20.7 trillion
GDP Growth Rate	2.1%	4.16%
Current Account Surplus	Lower	4.2% of GDP
Export Diversification	Limited pivot	40%+ to BRI countries

Source: IMF, Goldman Sachs Research, China-Briefing

This isn’t just about numbers—it’s about trajectory. While America debates tariffs and trade wars, China is systematically reducing vulnerability through export diversification and domestic stimulus measures.

The Soft Balancing Act: Winning Without Confrontation

Beijing’s strategy in 2026 exemplifies what scholars call “soft balancing”—accumulating power through economic integration, institutional creation, and strategic patience rather than military buildup. Consider:

Financial Architecture: China is the largest source of overseas direct investment in 2026, per FT’s FDI Intelligence survey, outpacing the UAE, India, and a US tied with Saudi Arabia for fourth place.
Renminbi Internationalization: KKR’s 2026 macro outlook notes 60% of Asian trade is already conducted within the region, with growing renminbi settlement—a trend accelerating post-COVID and post-Trump tariffs.
Technology Localization: Chinese EV and battery companies are establishing factories abroad to circumvent tariffs, shifting from exporter to investor—a playbook that builds dependencies while creating local jobs and political constituencies.

The Fragility Question: Can This Last?

Beijing’s apparent ascendancy isn’t without fault lines. China’s property sector remains a drag on GDP (shaving 2 percentage points off growth in 2024-2025, per Goldman Sachs). Domestic consumption remains tepid—retail sales grew just 0.9% in December, the slowest pace since the pandemic. The birth rate hit a record low in 2025, threatening long-term economic vitality.

Moreover, the Trump-Xi truce is fragile. Capitol Hill remains “decidedly China skeptic,” with the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act incorporating the BIOSECURE Act and FIGHT China Act targeting biotechnology and fentanyl. Trump’s planned April visit to Beijing could either cement a “grand bargain” or unravel into renewed confrontation.

The Default Win Scenario

Yet here’s the paradox: China doesn’t need to “beat” America to win. It merely needs to be present while America is absent, stable while America is volatile, and patient while America is distracted.

As NPR’s analysis of Trump’s hemispheric focus suggests, Washington may be offering Beijing a tacit grand bargain: China restrains expansion in the Western Hemisphere in exchange for US accommodation of Chinese interests in the Asia-Pacific, particularly regarding Taiwan.

If such an understanding materializes—even informally—it would represent a geopolitical watershed: America conceding spheres of influence, validating China’s regional hegemony, and normalizing a G2 framework that Xi has long advocated.

Looking Forward: 2026 and Beyond

The coming months will test this hypothesis. Trump’s April Beijing visit looms as a critical inflection point. Will he secure meaningful concessions on Taiwan arms sales, fentanyl cooperation, and trade deficits? Or will he settle for photo ops and promises, allowing China to consolidate gains made during America’s distraction?

The Diplomat’s assessment rings true: “China-U.S. relations in 2026 are more likely to follow a logic of steady-state management than to experience political shock.” Both sides are “buying time”—China to enhance technological resilience and economic diversification, America to marshal resources for long-term competition.

But time favors the prepared. As European allies hedge, emerging markets align with BRI infrastructure, and supply chains entrench Chinese dominance in critical sectors, the question becomes: When America finally re-focuses on the Indo-Pacific, will it find a region where China has already won the peace?

The Bottom Line

China won’t win the geopolitical game through conquest or even explicit competition. It will win by default—by showing up consistently while others don’t, by offering capital when others offer lectures, and by playing the long game while rivals chase news cycles.

As the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu wrote: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” In 2026, Beijing may be demonstrating that the supreme art of geopolitics is winning without competing—simply by being there when others aren’t.

What do you think? Is America’s pivot creating space for China’s rise, or is this a temporary détente before renewed confrontation? Share your perspective below.

Sources:

The Economy