Opinion
Are America’s Tariffs Here to Stay? One Year Into Trump’s Second Term
One year into President Donald Trump’s second term, the landscape of global trade has undergone a profound transformation. The United States, long the steward of the post-1945 liberal economic order, has pivoted decisively toward a protectionist stance. Tariffs—once deployed selectively—have become a central instrument of economic statecraft, applied broadly to adversaries and allies alike. Average effective tariff rates have risen to levels not seen in over a century, generating substantial federal revenue while prompting retaliatory measures, supply-chain reconfiguration, and heightened geopolitical friction.
Policymakers, researchers, and think tank analysts now confront a pivotal question: are Trump tariffs permanent, or do they represent negotiable leverage that could recede with shifting political or economic pressures? As of mid-January 2026, the evidence points toward entrenchment, though important caveats remain.
Are America’s Tariffs Here to Stay? A Preliminary Assessment
The short answer is yes, in substantial part—with meaningful qualifications. Indicators strongly suggest that many of Trump’s second-term tariffs are likely to endure beyond the current administration:
- Fiscal entrenchment — Tariff revenue has emerged as a significant budgetary resource, with collections exceeding $133 billion under IEEPA-based measures alone through late 2025 .
- Bipartisan acceptance of China-specific measures — Restrictions on Chinese imports enjoy broad support across the U.S. political spectrum and are increasingly viewed as permanent features of national security policy .
- Legal and institutional path dependence — Once imposed under executive authorities like the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), tariffs create domestic constituencies—protected industries and revenue-dependent programs—that resist rollback .
- Geopolitical recalibration — The tariffs signal a lasting shift toward “America First” realism, prioritizing bilateral deals over multilateral rules .
Countervailing risks include ongoing Supreme Court litigation over IEEPA’s scope . What’s striking is how quickly tariffs have moved from campaign rhetoric to structural reality.
The Evolution of Tariffs in Trump’s Second Term
Trump’s second-term trade policy builds on—but dramatically expands—first-term actions. Where Section 301 and Section 232 authorities dominated previously, the administration has leaned heavily on IEEPA to justify sweeping measures .
Legal Foundations and IEEPA Expansion
In early 2025, President Trump invoked IEEPA to declare national emergencies tied to trade deficits, fentanyl inflows, and unfair practices, enabling broad tariff implementation .
Key Tariff Actions by Country and Issue
The administration has calibrated tariffs variably:
| Trading Partner/Issue | Initial Rate (2025) | Current Rate (Jan 2026) | Rationale & Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Up to 60-145% on many goods | High rates persist with some adjustments | National security, fentanyl, trade practices; partial deals in place |
| Canada & Mexico | 25% on select goods | Largely moderated after negotiations | Migration and fentanyl; most trade under USMCA exemptions |
| European Union | Reciprocal + additional layers | Reduced in some sectors post-talks | Trade imbalances |
| Countries trading with Iran | 25% additional | Active secondary measures | Pressure on Iran |
| Global baseline | 10-20% universal/reciprocal | Partial exemptions remain | Persistent deficits |
These actions reflect a strategic blend of punishment and leverage .
Economic Impacts: Revenue Gains Versus Broader Costs
The most immediate outcome has been revenue. Customs duties have reached historic highs, with projections of sustained hundreds of billions annually .
Revenue Projections (Selected Estimates)
Yet costs are nontrivial. Economists note higher consumer prices and regressive impacts .
Geopolitical Consequences: Reshaping Alliances and Global Order
The tariffs have accelerated fragmentation of the rules-based system. Allies are diversifying ties, while adversaries adapt .
The Iran-related secondary tariffs exemplify broader economic coercion .
Key Indicators of Permanence
Several factors favor longevity:
- Revenue dependence — Hard to forgo sustained fiscal inflows .
- National security framing — Especially versus China .
- Domestic winners — Protected sectors investing in capacity .
- Precedent — Fallback authorities beyond IEEPA .
Potential Counterforces and Risks
Challenges include Supreme Court review .
Implications for the Global Economic Order
Permanent elevated tariffs would cement fragmentation, with higher costs and bifurcated chains .
Policy Recommendations for Stakeholders
- U.S. policymakers — Complement tariffs with industrial incentives.
- Allied governments — Accelerate diversification .
- Corporations — Build resilience.
- Researchers — Study long-term distributional and comparative effects.
In conclusion, while adjustments are likely, the core of Trump’s second-term tariffs appears structurally entrenched. This economic nationalism offers fiscal and strategic payoffs—but substantial risks. Navigating it will shape global governance for decades.
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