The Largest IPO in History: How Anthropic Could Surpass SpaceX

Records in the IPO market rarely last long during a boom cycle — and 2026 is proving that in dramatic fashion. SpaceX’s June debut set an all-time high for IPO size, raising roughly $75 billion at a valuation near $1.8 trillion. Just months later, Anthropic is reportedly positioning for a listing that could push past that mark entirely, with investors discussing a valuation of $2 trillion or more. Here’s how the two offerings actually compare, and what it would take for Anthropic to claim the record.

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX’s June 12, 2026 IPO priced at $135 per share, raising approximately $75 billion and closing its first day near a $2.1 trillion market cap.
• Anthropic’s reported target valuation of ~$2 trillion would rival or exceed SpaceX’s opening print, and comfortably exceed SpaceX’s settled valuation of roughly $1.5–1.84 trillion.
• U.S. IPOs had raised $160.6 billion through August 19, 2026 — closing in on the 2021 full-year record of $195.2 billion, with months still to go.
• Both companies share a structural quirk that amplifies price moves: an unusually low free float at listing.
• Anthropic’s IPO is reportedly targeted for September or October 2026, which would put the two largest offerings in history within roughly four months of each other.

Setting the Bar: What SpaceX Actually Did

SpaceX’s IPO on June 12, 2026 was, by nearly every measure, historic. The company priced shares at $135, raising approximately $75 billion in the offering — the largest capital raise ever completed in a single IPO. Its market capitalization closed the first trading day near $2.1 trillion before settling into a range closer to $1.5 trillion by late July, and has since stabilized around $140 per share, implying a market cap of roughly $1.84 trillion.

That settling pattern — a dramatic first-day pop followed by a pullback — is common in low-float IPOs, where a small percentage of total shares outstanding are actually available to trade. Early price discovery in these situations tends to overshoot before institutional and retail flows normalize the price closer to fundamental value.

The Anthropic Comparison, Side by Side

The most important distinction: SpaceX’s valuation is anchored in aerospace infrastructure, satellite internet (Starlink), and government/commercial launch contracts — a capital-intensive but tangible-asset-heavy business. Anthropic’s valuation, by contrast, rests almost entirely on software revenue growth and AI model licensing — an asset-light but computationally expensive business model with a much steeper, more recent growth curve.

Why Anthropic Could Actually Take the Record

1. A steeper growth trajectory. Anthropic’s revenue run rate grew roughly sevenfold in about seven months (from $9B to $65B). Few companies of any kind — let alone one preparing a public listing — have shown that rate of acceleration this close to an IPO.
2. Two-year forward pricing. Bankers are reportedly using a 2028 revenue projection of $190–200 billion to justify the $2 trillion figure, implying a roughly 10x forward multiple — a framework that gives more room to argue for a higher headline valuation than a purely trailing-revenue approach would.
3. A hot IPO market overall. With $160.6 billion already raised across U.S. IPOs through mid-August 2026, nearing the full-year 2021 record of $195.2 billion, market conditions are unusually supportive of large, ambitious offerings.
4. Underwriter reuse and confidence. The same lead banks that priced SpaceX’s record deal are reportedly leading Anthropic’s — suggesting they believe the market can support back-to-back trillion-dollar-plus tech listings within the same year.

Why It Might Not Happen

• The $2 trillion figure is unconfirmed. It comes from investors and bankers circling the deal, not from Anthropic’s own guidance. SpaceX’s final valuation, by contrast, was a completed, priced transaction.
• A run rate isn’t revenue. Anthropic’s $65 billion figure is an extrapolation from a short, recent period. If growth decelerates even modestly before pricing, the valuation math could compress.
• Post-listing performance matters more than headline valuation. SpaceX’s first-day peak of ~$2.1 trillion wasn’t sustained — it settled meaningfully lower within weeks. Anthropic could technically “beat” SpaceX’s opening valuation and still underperform it on a settled, weeks-later basis.
• Market conditions can shift quickly. A cooling in the broader 2026 IPO boom between now and Anthropic’s expected September–October window could compress achievable pricing.

What “Largest IPO Ever” Actually Measures

It’s worth being precise about what record is actually being discussed, because there are at least three distinct measures:

• Capital raised — the actual dollar amount sold to investors (SpaceX: ~$75 billion)
• Valuation at pricing — the implied market cap based on the offer price (SpaceX: ~$1.8 trillion)
• First-day peak market cap — the highest valuation reached during initial trading (SpaceX: ~$2.1 trillion)

Anthropic could plausibly set a record on one of these measures without setting a record on all three — for instance, achieving a higher headline valuation target while raising less absolute capital than SpaceX did, depending on how many shares the company decides to sell in the offering.

FAQ

Is Anthropic definitely going to have the largest IPO in history? Not confirmed. Investors and bankers are reportedly targeting a valuation around $2 trillion, which would exceed SpaceX’s settled valuation and rival its first-day peak, but no final valuation, share price, or capital raise amount has been set.

How much did SpaceX raise in its IPO? SpaceX raised approximately $75 billion in its June 12, 2026 IPO, pricing shares at $135 and reaching a first-day market cap near $2.1 trillion.

Why do both SpaceX and Anthropic have such volatile early trading potential? Both companies reportedly have a low free float — a small percentage of total shares available for public trading at listing — which tends to amplify price swings in both directions during early trading.

Could Anthropic’s IPO underperform SpaceX’s despite a higher target valuation? Yes. A higher headline target valuation doesn’t guarantee stronger post-listing performance. SpaceX itself saw its valuation compress from a $2.1 trillion first-day peak to roughly $1.5 trillion within weeks before stabilizing.