SBP Holds Policy Rate at 10.5% as Middle East War Reshapes Pakistan’s Economic Calculus

The room at the State Bank of Pakistan’s Karachi headquarters may have been airconditioned on a warm Monday morning, but the temperature in global energy markets was anything but. As Governor Jameel Ahmad chaired the second Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 2026, Brent crude was careening past $103 a barrel — its highest since 2022 — while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had ground to a near-halt under the shadow of the US-Israeli war on Iran. The MPC’s decision, telegraphed by virtually every analyst in the market, arrived with unusual unanimity: the benchmark policy rate would stay unchanged at 10.5%.

It was a pause born not of confidence, but of calibrated caution — and perhaps the most consequential hold in Pakistan’s two-year monetary easing cycle.

SBP MPC Decision March 2026: What the Statement Actually Says

The official Monetary Policy Statement was diplomatically precise in framing the dilemma. “While the incoming data was largely consistent with the macroeconomic projections shared after the January meeting,” the MPC noted, “the Committee observed that the macroeconomic outlook has become quite uncertain following outbreak of the war in the Middle East.”

That single sentence encapsulates the entire complexity facing Pakistan’s central bank in March 2026: the domestic data looks broadly fine; the external world does not.

The MPC went further, identifying three concrete transmission channels through which the conflict is striking the Pakistani economy: a sharp rise in global fuel prices, elevated freight and insurance costs, and disruptions to cross-border trade and travel. “Given the evolving nature of events,” it added, “the intensity and duration of the conflict will both be important determinants of the impact on the domestic economy.”

In other words, the SBP is watching, not acting — and deliberately so.

Pakistan Interest Rate Hold: The Numbers Behind the Decision

To understand why the MPC held, it helps to survey the macroeconomic landscape that informed the room.

Inflation rebounding, but manageable — for now. After dipping as low as 3% mid-2025, Pakistani consumer price inflation climbed to 5.8% year-on-year in January 2026 and further to 7% in February — the upper edge of the SBP’s 5–7% medium-term target range. Core inflation has remained persistently sticky, hovering around 7.4% in recent months. The MPC had flagged at the January meeting that some months in the second half of FY26 could breach 7%; February’s print validated that warning precisely. With petrol prices raised by Rs55 per litre to Rs321.17 in the days before the meeting — a direct pass-through of the global energy shock — the domestic inflation trajectory has become materially more uncertain.

The external account: resilience with caveats. The current account posted a surplus of $121 million in January 2026, compressing the cumulative July–January FY26 deficit to just $1.1 billion. Workers’ remittances — a structural pillar of Pakistan’s external financing — continued to absorb a significant share of the trade deficit, while the SBP’s ongoing interbank foreign exchange purchases helped drive liquid FX reserves to $16.3 billion as of February 27, up from $16.1 billion in mid-January. The committee set a firm target of reaching $18 billion by June 2026 — a milestone that now depends critically on the timely realisation of planned official inflows, including disbursements under Pakistan’s $7 billion IMF Extended Fund Facility.

GDP momentum intact but under threat. Large-scale manufacturing growth has surprised to the upside this fiscal year, and the SBP maintained its GDP growth projection at 3.75–4.75% for FY26. Private sector credit expanded by Rs187 billion between July and November FY25, led by textiles, wholesale & retail, and chemicals. Consumer financing — particularly auto loans — has strengthened as financial conditions eased. But the current oil shock introduces a significant headwind: higher input costs, squeezed margins, and the prospect of renewed monetary tightening if inflation reaccelerates.

Pakistan Economy Risks: The Gulf Conflict Inflation Channel

The geopolitical backdrop informing this decision is arguably the most volatile since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the MPC explicitly drew that parallel. “The macroeconomic fundamentals, especially in terms of inflation and the country’s FX and fiscal buffers, are better compared to the time of the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022,” the statement noted — a reassuring comparison, but one that implicitly acknowledges the severity of the threat.

Here is what has unfolded in the space of roughly ten days:

Event	Market Impact
US-Israeli strikes on Iran begin (Feb 28)	Brent crude +25% in two weeks
Strait of Hormuz shipping near-halted	Freight & war-risk insurance surges
Iraq output collapses 60–70%	Global supply shortfall ~20 mb/d
Brent crude surpasses $103/bbl (Mar 9)	Highest since Russia-Ukraine shock
Qatar warns of $150/bbl risk	G7 emergency reserve discussions begin

For Pakistan specifically, the pass-through arithmetic is sobering. The country imports virtually all of its crude oil requirements; historically, a $10 rise in Brent crude adds approximately 0.5–0.6 percentage points to Pakistan’s CPI within two to three quarters. With Brent having surged nearly $30 above its pre-conflict baseline, the potential inflation add-on over the coming two quarters — absent countervailing fiscal measures — could be 1.5–1.8 percentage points. That alone would push headline inflation toward 8.5–9%, well outside the target range and into territory that could force the SBP’s hand toward a rate increase.

The freight and insurance channel matters too. Pakistan’s exports — textiles, leather goods, surgical instruments — predominantly move by sea. War-risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Gulf region have spiked dramatically since late February, compressing export margins and threatening the competitiveness that the country has painstakingly rebuilt over the past eighteen months. Importers face mirror-image pressures: higher landed costs for energy, industrial inputs, and food commodities.

SBP Rate Decision Analysis: Why the Easing Cycle Has Effectively Paused

This is the SBP’s second consecutive hold — a sharp turn from the aggressive easing trajectory of the previous eighteen months. Between June 2024 and December 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee delivered a cumulative 1,150 basis points of rate cuts, bringing the policy rate down from a record 22% to 10.5%. That was one of the most dramatic easing cycles in any major emerging market during that period, and it was earned: inflation collapsed from multi-decade highs above 38% to the lower single digits, the rupee stabilised, and FX reserves rebuilt from critical lows.

The January 2026 hold surprised many analysts — Arif Habib Limited had pencilled in a 75bps cut to 9.75%, and a Reuters poll had pointed to a 50bps reduction — but it now reads as prescient caution. Governor Ahmad flagged at that press conference that inflation could breach 7% in some second-half months. It did, in February. The Middle East crisis then eliminated whatever residual space for cuts remained.

A Reuters poll conducted ahead of Monday’s meeting found near-unanimous consensus for a hold, with Topline Securities reporting that 96% of survey respondents expected no rate cut — a remarkable about-face from the 80% who had anticipated a cut ahead of January’s meeting. The shift in market expectations speaks to how quickly the geopolitical risk premium has repriced Pakistan’s monetary outlook.

The IMF’s own guidance reinforces the SBP’s caution. During its second programme review, the Fund urged that monetary policy remain “appropriately tight and data-dependent” to keep inflation expectations anchored and external buffers intact — language that sits uncomfortably with near-term rate cuts.

SBP FX Reserves and the External Account: A Fragile Resilience

Perhaps the most reassuring aspect of Monday’s statement was its treatment of the external account. The current account surplus in January, continued SBP interbank purchases, and the gradual rebuild of FX reserves to $16.3 billion all suggest that Pakistan enters this shock with considerably better buffers than it possessed in 2022 — when reserves plunged below $4 billion and the country teetered on the edge of sovereign default.

That buffer is real, but it is not inexhaustible. Three risks loom:

Oil import bill expansion. Pakistan’s monthly crude import bill will rise sharply if prices sustain above $100/bbl. The SBP’s current account deficit projection of 0–1% of GDP for FY26 was modelled on oil in the $70–80 range. A prolonged Hormuz closure tilts that range meaningfully toward the upper bound — or beyond it.

Remittance disruptions. A significant portion of Pakistani workers are employed in Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait collectively host over 4 million Pakistani expatriates. Gulf economic disruption, energy revenue compression, and potential labour-market contraction in those countries could dampen remittance flows, removing a critical current account stabiliser.

Official inflow timing. The SBP’s $18 billion FX reserve target for June 2026 hinges on planned official inflows materialising on schedule. Geopolitical turbulence has historically caused IMF disbursement delays and bilateral lending hesitancy. Any slippage here would tighten the external constraint and, with it, the SBP’s room for manoeuvre.

Pakistan Economy Risks and Scenarios: Three Paths From Here

Scenario 1 — Rapid de-escalation (probability: low-medium). A swift US-Iran deal and Hormuz reopening within two to four weeks would allow oil prices to retreat toward $70–80/bbl, stabilise Pakistan’s import bill, and potentially reopen the door to a 25–50bps cut at the May 2026 MPC meeting. This is the base case for FY26 projections remaining intact.

Scenario 2 — Prolonged but contained conflict (probability: high). A six-to-eight week Hormuz disruption, with Brent stabilising in the $90–110 range, would push Pakistan’s CPI toward 8–9% in Q4 FY26 and FY27 Q1. The SBP holds through May and likely through July, pausing the easing cycle for two to three meetings. GDP growth dips toward the lower end of the 3.75–4.75% range.

Scenario 3 — Escalation and infrastructure damage (probability: low but non-trivial). Qatar’s energy minister has warned publicly that sustained Hormuz closure could drive Brent to $150/barrel — a scenario that Goldman Sachs estimates could add 0.7 percentage points to Asian inflation for every $15 oil price increase under a six-week closure. For Pakistan, that arithmetic implies a potential CPI overshoot to 10–12%. The SBP would be forced to consider a rate increase — a reversal that would set back the economic recovery significantly, pressure fiscal consolidation, and complicate the IMF programme.

Implications for Pakistani Borrowers, Investors, and Exporters

Corporate borrowers and SMEs: The 10.5% policy rate, while materially lower than the 22% peak, still represents a significant real financing cost for businesses. The hold — and the likelihood of an extended pause — delays the relief that industry bodies had anticipated from a return to single-digit rates. The Pakistan Business Council and various textile associations had lobbied for further cuts to restore export competitiveness.

Fixed-income investors: Government securities yields, which had been compressing in anticipation of further rate cuts, will likely stabilise or widen slightly at the short end as the hold extends. T-bill yields in the 10.5–11% range remain attractive in real terms relative to expected near-term inflation, but the duration risk on longer-tenor PIBs rises in a scenario where rate hikes become plausible.

Equity markets: The KSE-100 index, which had benefited significantly from falling rates and improving macro fundamentals, faces a more challenging environment. Energy sector stocks — particularly downstream oil marketing companies — face margin compression as import costs rise. However, the broader index may find some support from the fact that the SBP is holding rather than hiking, signalling that it views FY26 macroeconomic projections as still broadly achievable.

Exporters and remittance recipients: The PKR/USD exchange rate — which had stabilised in the 278–285 range — faces upward pressure from the widening trade balance. Topline Securities’ pre-MPC survey projected PKR stability in the 280–285 range through June 2026, a projection that assumes oil prices partially retrace from current peaks. Any significant rupee depreciation would create an imported inflation feedback loop that complicates the SBP’s task further.

Structural Reforms: The SBP’s Unanswered Question

Monday’s statement, like its January predecessor, reiterated the need for a “coordinated and prudent monetary and fiscal policy mix — as well as productivity-enhancing structural reforms — to increase exports and achieve high growth on a sustainable basis.” That language has appeared in virtually every MPC statement for years. It points to a fundamental vulnerability that no interest rate decision can resolve.

Pakistan’s export base, dominated by low-value-added textiles, has shown structural stagnation relative to regional peers. Its tax-to-GDP ratio — with FBR revenue growth decelerating to 7.3% in December 2025, well short of budgeted targets — remains among the lowest in Asia. Its energy import dependency leaves the current account structurally exposed to precisely the kind of shock that has arrived this week.

The SBP can hold rates, build reserves, and manage the short-term pass-through of oil prices. What it cannot do is substitute for the fiscal discipline, industrial policy, and governance improvements that would reduce Pakistan’s structural vulnerability to external shocks. The Gulf war has exposed that vulnerability with stark clarity.

Outlook: Cautious Resilience, Rising Risks

The SBP’s decision to hold at 10.5% was the right call for a central bank navigating a crisis of uncertain magnitude and duration. Pakistan enters this shock with better buffers than it possessed in 2022 — higher reserves, lower inflation, a stabilised currency, and an active IMF backstop. Those are not trivial advantages.

But the window for complacency is narrow. Brent crude at $103 and rising, a Hormuz chokepoint under active military threat, and a domestic inflation trajectory already touching the upper edge of the target range leave the SBP with limited runway. Governor Ahmad and his committee have effectively entered a watchful holding pattern: data-dependent, geopolitics-sensitive, and acutely aware that the next move could be a hike rather than a cut.

For global investors watching Pakistan’s emerging-market trajectory, the message is nuanced: the macro stabilisation story remains intact, but the risk premium has risen meaningfully. Sovereign spreads, equity valuations, and the rupee will all need to reprice for a world where $100+ oil is not a tail risk but a baseline.

The easing cycle that began in June 2024 is, for now, on hold. Whether it resumes — or reverses — depends on decisions being made not in Karachi, but in Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran.