OpenAI vs. Anthropic IPO: Which AI Giant Will Dominate Wall Street?

For years, the OpenAI-versus-Anthropic rivalry played out in model benchmarks and enterprise contracts. In 2026, it’s playing out on Wall Street. Both companies have confidentially filed IPO paperwork with the SEC — but reporting suggests Anthropic is on track to reach the public markets first, and potentially at a larger valuation. Here’s how the two AI leaders actually compare, number for number.

Key Takeaways

• Both Anthropic and OpenAI have confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC, but Anthropic’s listing is reportedly targeted for September or October 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s, which is seen as more likely in 2027.
• Anthropic’s revenue run rate reportedly reached $65 billion by end of July 2026, versus OpenAI’s most recently reported run rate of roughly $40 billion.
• Anthropic’s last private valuation was $965 billion (May 2026 Series H); reported IPO valuation target is ~$2 trillion.
• Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are reportedly leading Anthropic’s offering — the same trio that anchored the SpaceX IPO.
• The two companies may not calculate revenue the same way, which complicates a clean apples-to-apples comparison.
• Neither company has confirmed final valuation, share pricing, or exact listing date.

The Race to Wall Street: Timeline Comparison

Revenue Growth: Anthropic’s Steeper Curve

The headline gap between the two companies isn’t just the absolute revenue number — it’s the shape of the growth curve. Anthropic’s run rate moved from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $65 billion by the end of July 2026, a sevenfold increase in about seven months. OpenAI’s run rate, by contrast, has roughly doubled over a comparable period, from about $20 billion to $40 billion, according to figures shared internally by OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman.

Both trajectories are, by any historical standard for software companies, extraordinary. But Anthropic’s pace of acceleration is the steeper one right now, and it’s the reason bankers are willing to entertain a valuation approaching $2 trillion despite the company’s last private mark sitting at less than half that figure just months earlier.

One caveat matters here: the two companies may not measure revenue the same way. Run-rate methodology, what counts as recognized revenue, and treatment of enterprise contracts versus consumer subscriptions can all vary. A side-by-side comparison should be read directionally, not as a precise scientific measurement.

Why Anthropic Might Get There First

Several structural factors point toward Anthropic reaching Wall Street ahead of OpenAI:

1. Filing timeline. Anthropic’s confidential S-1 was filed June 1, 2026, giving it a multi-month head start in the SEC review process relative to OpenAI’s reported filing.
2. Underwriter readiness. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are reportedly close to finalizing lead roles, with Citigroup and Barclays also expected to join the syndicate — a sign of advanced deal preparation.
3. Capital structure prep. Anthropic is finalizing a reported $15 billion pre-IPO credit facility, a step companies typically take shortly before a public listing to shore up balance sheet flexibility.
4. Corporate structure decisions. Anthropic is reportedly considering super-voting shares for co-founder Dario Amodei and other founders — the kind of governance decision typically finalized in the run-up to a roadshow.

Valuation Multiples: Which Company Is Priced More Aggressively?

Using Anthropic’s reported figures, a $2 trillion valuation implies:

• ~30x trailing 2026 run rate ($65B)
• ~17–20x projected full-year 2026 revenue ($100–120B)
• ~10x projected 2028 revenue ($190–200B)

OpenAI’s IPO valuation target has not been reported with the same specificity, making a direct multiple comparison premature. What can be said is that Anthropic’s reported multiple sits below software comparables like Palantir (53x revenue) and Cloudflare (41.6x revenue), suggesting bankers are not pricing Anthropic at the most extreme end of current AI/SaaS valuations — even at $2 trillion.

Investor Positioning: How Institutional Money Is Splitting Its Bets

Institutional investors exposed to both companies through earlier private funding rounds are unlikely to view this as a binary, winner-take-all outcome. The broader enterprise AI software market has shown room for multiple scaled players — Anthropic leaning into coding and agentic enterprise workloads, OpenAI maintaining a broader consumer and developer platform footprint. For investors building exposure through AI-focused ETFs or diversified tech portfolios, the more relevant question may not be “which company wins” but how much combined market cap the sector can support once both companies are public.

What Could Change the Order

• Regulatory review delays. SEC review timelines are not guaranteed; either company’s IPO could slip.
• Market conditions. U.S. IPOs had raised $160.6 billion through August 19, 2026, closing in on the 2021 record of $195.2 billion — a hot market that could cool and affect timing for either company.
• A surprise OpenAI acceleration. If OpenAI’s board decides to move up its own filing timeline in response to Anthropic’s progress, the “who’s first” narrative could shift quickly.

FAQ

Is Anthropic definitely going public before OpenAI?

It’s the most likely outcome based on current reporting — Anthropic filed confidentially in June 2026 and is targeting a fall listing, while OpenAI’s IPO is seen as more likely in 2027 — but neither timeline is confirmed or guaranteed.

Which company has higher revenue: OpenAI or Anthropic?

As of the most recent reporting, Anthropic’s revenue run rate (~$65 billion) is reported higher than OpenAI’s (~$40 billion), though methodology differences mean this isn’t a perfectly apples-to-apples comparison.

Will OpenAI and Anthropic use the same underwriters?

Anthropic is reportedly working with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan. OpenAI’s underwriting syndicate has not been confirmed in current reporting.

Should investors buy both companies once they’re public?

That depends on individual risk tolerance, portfolio construction, and valuation at the time of listing. Diversifying across AI infrastructure and enterprise software exposure — rather than concentrating in a single name — is a common approach financial advisors suggest during high-profile IPO waves.